Timeform Review – 2014 Melbourne Cup

3 minute read

It was bound to happen sooner or later, German-trained galloper Protectionist’s resounding Melbourne Cup victory completing a clean sweep for overseas trained runners in all three of the Melbourne spring majors.

Of course earlier, Japanese galloper Admire Rakti had similarly romped home in the G1 Caulfield Cup while Irish-trained Adelaide posted a last to first win in the G1 W S Cox Plate at Moonee Valley.

Read the Timeform Review - 2014 W S Cox Plate

While many of the overseas trained gallopers don’t find their top form in Australia’s big races, enough do to highlight the weaker side of Australian racing – a lack of staying talent – something which is starting to be addressed with the retirement of former Melbourne Cup winners Shocking, Fiorente and Americain to stud in New Zealand and Australia.

The Andreas Wohler prepared Protectionist, now partly owned in Australian interests, came to Australia as a relatively unexposed four-year-old with four wins from just eight starts, significant amongst them the Prix Kergorlay, a race used successfully in the past as a stepping stone to Melbourne Cup success.

The Kergorlay was used by both Dunaden and American as part of their lead up campaigns in their 2010 and 2011 Cup wins respectively.

However it was in the Herbert Power Handicap that Protectionist under 59kgs really gave a glimpse of what lay ahead with a slashing close up fourth behind Big Memory, powering late and being in front 50m past the post, running to a slightly new Timeform peak of 123p.

Wohler was obviously aware of the excellent record that overseas trained runners have in the Melbourne Cup after a prior run in Australia - the Herbert Power Handicap gave him the ideal path to the Cup.

While Tuesday’s Cup lacked depth, the manner in which Protectionist brushed aside his rivals in the last 400m was breathtaking, clearing out to win decisively after coming from near last on the home turn.

In assessing the merit of the performance several facets were examined including, but not limited to, historical standardisation, pre-race Timeform rating profiles of contributing runners, weight carried and overall race time.

The Timeform ratings profiles of contributing runners suggested a final Timeform figure of 128 for Protectionist – a rise of five pounds on his Herbert Power run. Also noting that Simenon followed the same program in 2013 improving three pounds between the two races when he finished fourth in the Melbourne Cup behind Fiorente.

Historical race standardisation techniques suggested a final figure of between 125 and 138 with the most likely value sitting somewhere in the middle but to the lower side given the calibre of the entire field.

Another factor that weighed on the analysis was the five year winning average Timeform rating of 125 which also indicated a value below the midpoint of possible values.

In the final analysis a figure of 128 was adopted as being the appropriate value assigned to Protectionist – a figure that reflected the dominance of the win yet being reflective of the quality of the field.

A closer comparison of the overall race time and sectional times against the previous Cup renewals unearthed some interesting trends.

Protectionist’s race time of 3:17.71 was the fourth fastest Cup run since metrics were introduced in 1972 – behind Kingston Rule (3:16.3 in 1990), Media Puzzle (3:16.9 in 2002) and Tawrrific (3:17.1 in 1989).

By comparison to the previous three renewals Protectionist’s Cup was run at a solid tempo for the first 1600m, 99.91 seconds compared to 100.2 seconds in Fiorente’s Cup, 101.0 seconds (Green Moon) and 102.43 seconds (Dunaden).

The field sectionals on Tuesday also reveal they came home the fastest last 1600m as well, 97.8 seconds compared to 100.1 seconds (Fiorente), 99.45 seconds (Green Moon) and 98.41 seconds (Dunaden), Protectionst himself charging home in 95.91 seconds, the last 200m in 11.66 seconds.

The win by Protectionist gave champion British rider Ryan Moore a second group one feature in Australia after taking the Cox Plate atop Adelaide the weekend prior. It was another polished performance by Moore who had been unplaced at both his previous Cup rides aboard Mount Athos and Dandino.

Runner up Red Cadeaux under Gerald Mosse ran to a figure of 124 – his third second in the Flemington feature in four consecutive years – quite an impressive performance - his highest rating since last year’s gallant second to Fiorente where he ran to 127.

The Chris Waller-trained Who Shot Thebarman relished the 3200m running a strong third improving his Timeform rating by a couple of pounds to 119.

Meanwhile impressive Lexus winner Signoff the recipient of a classy ride from Joao Moreira worked into the race at the 400m and looked set to play a part in the finish however failed to stay the 3200m at this stage, still battling on well to hold fourth but coming off his Lexus rating by five pounds.

The Godolphin-trained Willing Foe was very game for fifth placing after covering ground in a hot pace race but running to form at 116.

Once again overseas trained horses without a start in Australia prior to the Cup failed to get into the frame – since Vintage Crop 75 have tried and all have lost.

The race was tinged with sadness with the loss of both Admire Rakti and Araldo after the race, the former seemingly suffering a heart attack in the tie up stalls after competing while Araldo was involved in a freak accident upon returning to the parade ring that resulted in him fracturing a leg.

Ends.