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Last week’s piece, if not exactly fanning the flames of the ‘greatness’ debate, seemed to stoke the embers judging by the reaction on social media.
This week we have a timely illustration of where ratings diverge from legend.
Timeform’s ratings, indeed every serious ratings scale, measures performances rather than mantelpieces. Ability and capability. We can therefore regard a performance as an affirmation of a horse’s superiority, a sign that it’s going to achieve more success, without needing to bump up its rating. We might even take it down, as we’ve done- sort of- in the case of July Cup winner Muhaarar.
Muhaarar came into Saturday’s July Cup, the first all-age Group 1 he’s contested, rated 128p and following a narrow success over Tropics (a career-high 124) he’s now 128. The ratings case for the removal of that symbol is simple: irrespective of how he handled the dip, we’d still expect an on-song sprinter capable of running to something in the low-mid 130s (as 128p would imply) of a more convincing win over seven-year-old Tropics.
Yet the overall Timeform view of Muhaarar is no dimmer for Saturday. He was undoubtedly the best horse on the day in an all-age Group 1 sprint, and a sprinter capable of winning Group 1s even when he’s not at his very best (performed 6 lb below his Commonwealth Cup level) is rare and potentially dominant in the division- acknowledging that he looks likely to flit between six and seven furlongs rather than the more traditional five and six.
Muhaarar is ahead of the five-year standards for just about all of his likely targets for the remainder of the year: the Maurice de Gheest (by 6 lb), Sprint Cup (3 lb) and Champions Series Sprint (6 lb). He is only slightly behind the standard for the Prix de La Forêt, though that has quietly been one of Europe’s best Group 1s in recent years, with winners including Goldikova, Dream Ahead, Moonlight Cloud and Olympic Glory.
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There’s a converse relationship between ratings and achievement at play in the case of Falmouth Stakes winner Amazing Maria. She’s now won her last two starts, but the ratings would suggest the odds are against her making it a hat-trick should she stick to Group 1 level. Basically, it’s primarily her change of pace that has seen her win at Ascot and now Newmarket, with James Doyle deserving high praise for making an early move on Friday in a race that turned into a sprint. For winning another scrappy race, Amazing Maria is rated 116, very much below average for the winner of even a females-only Group 1.
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Besides the Group 1 races at the July Festival it was the two-year-olds that impressed most. None more so than July Stakes winner Shalaa (116p), who surprised some, presumably including Frankie Dettori, in running out a taking winner. Given how quickly he has improved up to now, it’s not difficult to put his hanging left at the finish down to residual inexperience, without which he would have run out an even more convincing winner.
Shalaa is now leader on the road to be Europe’s top juvenile, though he remains behind Queen Mary winner Acapulco in the world’s pecking order. Acapulco is now on 117p, raised 1 lb after Basharah (104), fourth to her at Royal Ascot, was nosed out by Albany winner Illuminate (109) in the Duchess of Cambridge on Friday.
There were also a couple of significant maiden winners across the meeting. On Thursday, Lumiere was backed a though thought among Mark Johnston’s leading two-year-olds and won even more authoritatively than that would suggest. She goes straight in at 108p for her six-length victory, the form given extra strength by a time comparison with the first division of the same race 35 minutes earlier, won by the well-bred Salvo (86p). On Friday, another well-bred sort, Manaafidh, wasn’t quite so visually impressive but gave the impression of much more to come. He’s been rated 96P, suggesting he’ll be in Pattern races before the season is out.
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There was plenty of good racing away from Newmarket over the weekend. Ascot saw the most significant performance, one that could become significant come the next big meeting at Goodwood. Arod (126) has really clicked in his new career as a miler and now, following a convincing win over the progressive Lightning Spear (123) in the Summer Mile, makes the third prong in a Sussex Stakes trident, alongside long-term players Gleneagles (129) and Solow (130). He’d be likely to come off third-best in that clash, though prices around 16/1 feel a little dismissive given he essentially remains unexposed at the trip.
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York’s big story comes not from the John Smith’s Cup (though winner Master Carpenter is rated 118 and could be one for minor Group races now), but the listed City Walls Stakes. Out Do did well to overcome trouble in running as he beat the smart and thriving Monsieur Joe (115), so he now has a rating (119) that suggests he’s worth trying at even the highest level. As he’s now won twice over the minimum trip at York this year, the Nunthorpe over an identical C&D may offer a good opportunity to strike while the iron is hot, with the added bonus of avoiding Muhaarar.
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A final word to France, with Bastille Day virtually upon us. The Prix Jean Prat took place on Sunday and, though it’s unlikely to impact races like the Sussex to a huge extent, it still helps to firm up where we are with the horses on which we’re currently judging the likes of Gleneagles. Guineas runner-up Territories (123) beat Jersey winner Dutch Connection (122) at Chantilly in what seems a fair reflection of their merits. With that said, they were seen to good effect on the day, both dropped out off a strong pace that allowed them to come six lengths clear of the field at the line. They would need things to drop their way again if taking on the very best milers.