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Gee we have had some run in the two races I have picked to handicap in the last two Newsletters….there might be a system here!
Last week we ensured another long shot chance got the money by looking at the Caulfield Stakes. The previous week I helped Newport win the Metropolitan!
The Yalumba was won by Douro Valley getting away with some cheap sectionals in front and sprinting home at 40/1. I think tempo played more part in the result than actual ability, but that is just my view.
Just to make the result more interesting, Pompeii Ruler was found to have been injured during the race which explains to some degree his below par rating effort.
As for Sirmione, well I am convinced he reads the papers! Just a terrible horse for punters to follow. He MAY get one last chance from me at Flemington. I think he likes bigger tracks.
This week, I have chosen to take on the big one and look at the Caulfield Cup.
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Race Analysis
Weekend Hussler
The obvious question around 'The Hussler' is the distance. His Turnbull run was inconclusive as he was trapped wide for the trip and never fired a shot in the straight. We can forgive him for that and base this run on his run in the Underwood but we have to factor in the lack of proven distance ability.
Don in his book Winning More, had a table which applied a kilo bonus and penalty for horses racing outside their distance range.
I have concluded the Hussler's best distance range is 1500 to 1800m. This results in a penalty of 3kgs.
I have also gone a step further and halved his consistency bonus because that has been also earned over shorter trips.
Maldivian
Went into this race as favourite last year before the famous barrier incident. Yet to race further then 2040m and his ratings levelled last start in the Turnbull. Allowed to run to that figure again.
Master O'Reilly
Last years winner ran a big race in the Turnbull running a new peak rating. Astute and in form stable has set him for this and we can expect to run to that figure again.
Fiumicino
Looked to be getting back to good form before his disappointing run in the Metropolitan. We can perhaps forgive him that run and assess on his previous run which allows him to run to his best twelve month figure of 57.5
Nom Du Jeu
Ratings spiked significantly last time he crossed the Tasman and won the AJC Derby over this distance. Racing at 2400 has consistently brought on improvement. Allowed to improve a further 2.5kgs which will be a new peak.
Mad Rush
Have to respect the stable and Oliver on board looks a good move. Horse clearly has ability having run to 60.5 two starts back though with 55 days between runs and travel we should expect him to run a few kilos below that which leaves room for improvement into the Melbourne Cup. Fitness penalty 2kgs.
All The Good
Winner of a revised version of the Ebor which was the same path that Purple Moon took last year. Expect him to run a decent race but prepared to leave 2kgs off his 12 month peak for improvement into the Melbourne Cup.
Douro Valley
Big Winner last week and a new career peak. Suited back to handicap conditions and ratings tend to jump when out to 2400. Had 7 runs past 2100 and still yet to win? Still thinking last rating may be slightly flattering so won't be factoring in any further improvement.
Ice Chariot
Ratings dropped sharply last start out to 2000m but that was wet track. Ignore that run. Expect to see him improve a few kilos on that run. QTC Derby winner and Qld Cup winner. Allowed to run to best.
Viewed
Late scratching last week means it is now out to 28 days between runs. Ran to 56.5 in the Underwood and can expect some improvement out to a more suitable distance. Allowed to improve 1.5kgs.
Littorio
Impressive winner of the Turnbull which has been a great form reference for this race over the years. Ratings have been very consistent and we can expect him to peak here. Allowed 1.5 kgs.
Red Ruler
Ratings jumped last start up to 2040m matching his 12 month peak. That peak was recorded in Australia over 2400m. Based on those factors we can expect to see solid improvement here. Allowed 2kgs.
Boundless
Last start run of 58 over 2040m showed big was a sharp rise in ratings. 12 month peak was recorded here in Australia out to this distance and we can expect to see her peak again here. Allowed 2kgs on her last start.
Dolphin Jo
Continues to improve with racing and can expect to see a further 1kg improvement from last week on the back up.
Riva San
Ratings have been consistent though improved slightly on the wet track last time out. Out to 2400m will suit and allowed 1kg improvement.
Zagreb
Continues to improve in ratings and last start could well have improved further if not for bad luck. Back to best performed track and positive gear change here should ensure a further rise. Allowed to improve 2.5kgs.
Guillotine
Pacifiers on last start helped him to settle in the run. Ratings levelled over last three starts. Allowed to run to that figure again.
Barbaricus
Improving horse ran a new peak rating of 58.5 last start. Still lightly raced and allowing for further improvement of 1.5kgs here.
Newport
Terrific record at the distance. 12 month peak rating last start winning the Metropolitan. Prepared to allow a 1kg improvement on that run especially if it's wet.
Red Lord
Disappointed on an unsuitable track in the Metropolitan. Similar scenario in the autumn when not handling wet track before returning to previous ratings in the Sydney Cup. Can expect to see a similar return to form here. Allowed to run to 12 month peak recorded in two starts back.
Moatize
Gradual improvement can continue here though very hard to see him winning. Allow 1.5kgs.
After applying those changes and then restricting the final chances to those runners within 3kgs of my number one selection, I have the following top five with value odds on a market set to 90%
Red Ruler $8.50
Guillotine $8.50
Weekend Hussler $9.50
Littorio $11.0
Boundless $13.00
But as you can see from my final Handicap screen there remains another seven other chances within the 3 kilo cut off.
While I will consider those for my multiples, I will focus my win betting on the main chances from my analysis and look for value amongst those.
At this stage it would seem Red Ruler, Guillotine and Boundless are going to be the value based on my analysis.
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I have also attached my Pace Map. I generally use this to see just where I believe the top chances will be in the race and to decide if any additional changes are needed to the Handicapping process.
On this occasion I am happy to leave my analysis unchanged.
