Timeform Preview of the 2018 Melbourne Cup

Gary Crispe's look at the way the runners rate for the Cup

Three global icons of thoroughbred racing look likely to play a major role in the outcome of the 2018 Melbourne Cup at Flemington this afternoon.

Sheikh Mohammed’s Godolphin Team made up of local and overseas representatives, Team Williams who as owners, will be chasing a seventh Melbourne Cup and arguably the best trainer in the world Aidan O’Brien who went agonisingly close last year with Johannes Vermeer – his ninth runner in the 3200m contest.

Between them they hold a good proportion of the top end of the market in the 24-runner field.

Timeform adjusted weight ratings give a strong leaning to the Aidan O’Brien trained - Team Williams owned Yucatan who debuted in Australia with a blistering victory in the Herbert Power Handicap over 2400m.

On that occasion Yucatan sat back in the field early but rider James MacDonald set the well-bred son of champion sire Galileo alight approaching the 800m turning for home with a handy lead of over two lengths that soon stretched to around six lengths with 200m to travel before MacDonald grabbed hold of Yucatan easing him down to a winning margin of just over a length.

Clearly it was one of the most dominant displays in the Herbert Power in 25 years returning to a Timeform rating of 123p – the equal highest Timeform rating recorded in the race for that period – exactly the same rating that 2014 Melbourne Cup winner Protectionist ran to at his Australian debut when fourth in the Herbert Power before going on to take out the Melbourne Cup at his next start.

The last horse to won the Herbert Power – Melbourne Cup double was Rogan Josh in 1999 and the last horse to come through the race and win the Cup was Prince of Penzance in 2015.

Yucatan came to Australia with a similar profile to Johannes Vermeer, but with a slightly higher Timeform rating - his campaign modelled similarly on that galloper who was placed in both the 2017 Caulfield and Melbourne Cups.

A glance at Yucatan’s form book reveals some excellent group one Juvenile form including a second in the G1 Racing Post Trophy, but only a brief three-year-old season that included just two runs for a close up third to last year’s Melbourne Cup winner Rekindling in the Ballysax Stakes at level weights, before a narrow defeat in the Derrinstown Derby Trial Stakes where he defeated subsequent Irish Derby winner Capri.

Yucatan was clearly a little “ring rusty” in his early runs before coming to Australia however he is on an upward ratings profile that has now continued in the Herbert Power.

Saturday’s Hotham Handicap won by A Prince Of Arran from Brimham Rocks – the two horses that Yucatan defeated with ease in the Herbert Power certainly franks the form of that race and clearly under pins the high Timeform rating awarded Yucatan.

While yet to run over the Cup trip of 3200m, like Johannes Vermeer last year, being by Galileo there is no reason to suggest he won handle it. A repeat of his Herbert Power Timeform rating would see Yucatan comfortably home despite the 1.5kgs weight penalty he received for that win.

Godolphin have strong representation in this year’s Cup and all have strong chances, headed by Caulfield Cup winner Best Solution, Cross Counter and Avilius.

Godolphin have gone close to winning the Cup on several occasions but have never been quite able to lift the Trophy aloft.

From 27 runners, they have managed three second placings, two thirds and a fourth.

The Godolphin assault on the Melbourne Cup started with the unplaced Faithful Son in 1998 then Central Park second in 1999, followed by Give The Slip second in 2001, Beekeeper third in 2002, Crime Scene second in 2009 and Hartnell third in 2016.

Although it has not been tried many times, there is a view that the northern hemisphere-bred three-year-olds seem to be very well placed in the Melbourne Cup, something that first came to light when Coolmore’s Mahler was a close up third to Efficient in 2007.

Then last year Team Williams were successful with handy three-year-old Rekindling coming off a luckless effort in the British St Leger Stakes at Doncaster.

Such a theory is not without foundation and Charlie Appleby has earmarked powerful three-year-old Cross Counter for the assignment this year, in what will be only his second attempt to win the Cup from just his third runner in the race.

Because Cross Counter is a gelding, Appleby dodged the St Leger, a race that looked within his grasp after fighting out a stirring duel in the G2 Great Voltigeur Stakes over 2385m at York with stable mate Old Persian last time out.

Prior to the Great Voltigeur, Cross Counter had easily accounted for Epsom Derby runner up Dee Ex Bee in the G3 Gordon Stakes over 2412m at Goodwood – that is probably as good a trial for the Cup as you can get.

Cross Counter has raced just seven times for four wins and is still very much unexposed but on an upward Timeform ratings spiral. He currently sits with a Timeform rating of 123 – two pounds above the level Rekindling ran off in last year’s Melbourne Cup victory – a figure that says it all if Cross Counter has fully recovered from his slight set back leading into the race and overcomes the horror first up statistic which is against all European runners attempting such a feat in Australia’s iconic staying contest.

Cross Counter is well placed Photo by (Photo by Alan Crowhurst/Getty Images)

Since 1993, almost 100 horses have attempted to win the Cup without having a run in Australia first - only two - both Irish-trained – Vintage Crop and Rekindling have succeeded.

Of that group, 47 British runners have all failed to win - this year might just be the time to break that hoodoo.

Another runner facing the hoodoo is the Ian Williams trained Magic Circle, owned in the same interests as Mount Athos who had two luckless runs in previous Cup renewals, a win today no doubt erasing those frustrating memories.

Magic Circle comes into the race off an unusual campaign. He resumes from a 166 day spell after just two races this year for two outstanding wins. However, his fresh up record is excellent winning four of seven attempts.

Significantly the two wins this year came after Magic Circle changed stables, being purchased by Dr Koukash at the 2017 Horses in Training Sales for £70,000.

At his first run for new trainer Ian Williams, Magic Circle strolled away from his rivals with six lengths to spare in the Chester Cup over 3749m then followed that up with an even higher rating effort in the G3 Henry II Stakes at Sandown over 3264m, again spacing his rivals, headed by fellow rival this afternoon Red Verdon by six lengths.

Today’s race is another step up in class but he does bring a suitable 122 Timeform rating to the table and clearly with more to give if the ease of those two wins are any guide.

A late arrival into the race is Saturday’s Hotham Handicap winner A Prince Of Arran who gained automatic entry virtue of that success.

The hard-fought half-length win over Brimham Rocks confirmed the formline from the Herbert Power.

However, the win by A Prince Of Arran is no fluke and should not be taken lightly – the UK galloper bringing to Australia strong staying form in Dubai and the UK.

In two runs in Australia, A Prince Of Arran has ran to his overseas Timeform ratings and is the first horse since My Hero in 1953 to win the Hotham with more than 57kgs.

In recent years, high rating Hotham Handicap winners have generally raced well in the Cup, Shocking being the last horse to take the double with a similar Timeform Hotham rating.

A Prince Of Arran keeps improving Photo by Racing and Sports

A Prince Of Arran ran to a Timeform rating of 118 winning the Hotham, a pound higher than Shocking ran in 2009 before going onto win the Cup.

Former French-trained Godolphin galloper Avilius, now under the guidance of trainer James Cummings has made rapid improvement since coming to Australia – winning four of his five starts – his last run a well beaten fourth behind Winx in the Cox Plate under weight for age conditions.

Avilius secured his ticket for a Cup start by winning the ballot free Bart Cummings over 2500m at Flemington.

Formerly with Andre Fabre, Avilius has continued to answer every challenge presented to him since arriving in Australia, winning fresh up over 1600m then improving his ratings steadily as his distances increased, taking his career tally to six wins from 13 starts with a Timeform rating of 119.

Avilius’ win in the Bart Cummings under 58.5kgs was an emotional one for the great trainer’s grandson and one could only guess what it would mean for James to win a Melbourne Cup so early in his training career – the race his late Grandfather Bart won a record 12 times.

And Avilius could be the horse to set him on that winning Cup journey, after notching up wins in quick succession in the Premiers Cup, Kingston Town Stakes and Bart Cummings prior to the Cox Plate.

There is a shade of X-factor about Avilius – the main one being an electric turn of foot – an attribute that will carry him a long way in staying contests.

Last start he was given a “tune up” in the Cox Plate behind champion mare Winx - In the last 25 years, we have seen the Cox Plate produce Cup winners in Fiorente (2013), Green Moon (2012), Efficient (2007), Makybe Diva (2005) and Saintly (1996) and recent placegetters in Hartnell, Criterion, C’Est Le Guerre and So You Think.

Avilius is a definite treat – a win not only giving Godolphin that victory which has eluded them for such a long time, but it would be a true fairytale outcome if the late Bart Cummings’ grandson James won the race for them.

Interestingly Avilius enters the race as a Bart Cummings Stakes winner and sixth run back form a spell, the same profile of 2016 winner Almandin.

While overseas trainers appear to have the edge, Australia’s leading trainers Darren Weir and Chris Waller will be hoping one of their lesser fancied runners can cause an upset.

Weir who won the 2015 Melbourne Cup with Prince Of Penzance has had eight Cup runners in total for a winner, a second and two fourths while Waller has been represented by 15 Cup runners for just one placing, Who Shot Thebarman third in 2015.

The Weir stable will have just one runner, former UK stayer Red Cardinal who appears to be struggling to regain his best form, however Waller’s best hopes are former French galloper Finche and Queensland Oaks winner Youngstar, even though stable stalwart and Sydney Cup winner Who Shot Thebarman goes around for his fourth Melbourne Cup.

Finche another Cup entry formerly trained by Andre Fabre, impressed at his Australian debut for Waller with an eye catching third to Runaway in the Geelong Cup – a race that has been a good guide to the Melbourne Cup in the past, producing Cup winners Dunaden and Americain.

Finche came to Australia with three wins from eight starts and some excellent form lines that included a fifth in the Prix Ganay behind Cracksman and Cloth Of Stars.

Prior to coming to Australia, Finche signed off in France with a win over 2500m at Deauville so the 3200m this afternoon should pose no issues.

Finche was doing his best work at the end of the Geelong Cup and the spacious Flemington track should bring out the best in this flashy entire.