3 minute read
Best Bets for Jolly Beggar Stakes Day at Belmont.
It's Jolly Beggar Stakes day at Belmont this Saturday, with the track rated a Soft 6 on Wednesday morning.
With a few showers hanging about the Perth region, it's expected the track will remain in the Soft range come raceday.
GINNIVAN has come up the $1.60 favourite in early markets and it's easy to see why.
The son of Universal Ruler continues to raise the bar, running a new peak rating with R&S and posting one of the fastest times of the shortened card on August 17.
While this is his toughest test to date, he ticks plenty of boxes with a nice drop in weight, a positive racing pattern and barrier to boot, as well as bringin in the highest last start rating of the field.
The main market danger is the Adam Durrant-trained SUPERSESSION who resumes following a solid campaign, winning the three country feature sprints.
While he obviously has class, his best form is over longer distances, with the five-year-old sometimes run off his feet over the 1000m journey.
GHOST WHO WALKS was only fair in the Beaufine over this course and distance in July, but has run two better ratings since that effort over a trip he's probably unsuited to. His figures say he's trending back towards his best form and returning to this trip may bring it out of him.
Chris and Michael Gangemi's GO FORWARD has been very good under quiet riding at the trials leading into today. He went through the good races during The Pinnacles last year and has plenty of ratings good enough to be winning a race like this, it's just whether he can produce them first-up which is the question.
Tricky day to find a best bet at Belmont with the market well priced throughout, though there could still be some value around CLEANEMUP in race two.
The full sister to Oscar's Fortune has hit the ground running, winning who two starts and posting a good figure when doing so on July 27 as a short favourite.
Horses such as Madhi Girl and Golden Vale return after contesting some strong races throughout their juvenile season, with Madhi Girl having trialled the best of Simon Miller's charges.
The difference is, Cleanemup has run ratings as good as them and more recently as well. She'll be prominent throughout and a feeling that there's more to come from her, she can remain undefeated.
As for a value play, CELEBRITY WITNESS caught my eye in race four on the card.
A newcomer to the Grant and Alana Williams Stable, she was back to the mile last start after a 35-day break and was only fair, but it was very heavy there and she may not have handled the going there.
Now back out to 2200m where she was gunned down right on the post two starts ago, running a very high rating and William Pike hops back in the saddle.
He's sure to put her in a great spot from barrier five and with no weight on her back, she's expected to run a big race at the current odds.
Best From The West
Best Bet: Race 2 Number 5 CLEANEMUP @ $2.10*
Value Play: Race 4 Number 7 CELEBRITY WITNESS @ $7*
*Prices correct as of 3:15pm, August 29th.
