3 minute read
The final race on the Ballarat card today does look a first four-fest for four runners aged four.
Once the dentures get put back in after such a flurry of words starting with the same letter, bettors should then begin with the now gelded Raffles Knight as the first of this age to wager upon.
Raffles Knight cost A$280K and his year younger full brother Decircles, which cost just 5K less, is also showing good promise in the Danny O'Brien stable.
Remember his name this spring as the still colt is already G2 placed and won his resumption maiden like a Group player in the three-year-old ranks.
A couple of half brothers to Raffles Knight that have done okay to date are Cars King Prawn and King Raedwald, with the former a Listed winner.
The second dam of Raffles Knight is Circles Of Gold (dam of Haradasun, Elvstroem and Altius to name a few), so this is a deadset gold medal bloodline.
Raffles Knight started racing in New Zealand for Stephen McKee and the chestnut won his first two outings over 1400m and 1500m showing that will to win so prevalent in this family.
His third start showed he could rumble in Group company and in a torrid run race, when fourth in the G2 Great Northern Guineas (1600m) at Ellerslie, after sitting wide and working throughout behind the multiple G1 winner Jimmy Choux.
The long strider has some size and strength but is not a sudden pick up and sprint type, so his ability to sustain a finish is his main asset and meal ticket.
He ended up running a decent and slightly luckless sixth in the G2 Avondale Guineas (2100m) and then never copped the bog track in the G1 NZ Derby (2400m).
Raffles Knight then joined the O'Brien stable and struck a heavy track at the Sandown-Lakeside track in a Restricted 72 mile and ran a one-paced race for sixth under 58kg.
There has some been some reasonable form out of that race since.
At his next start for O'Brien he tackled a G3 event over 2020m at Morphettville in Adelaide but a rocky run did him no favours and went for a spell afterwards.
I noted his fresh up run this season on the synthetic track at Geelong, as a tough fifth and the effort of an improver once back to a natural turf circuit and that is today at Ballarat.
He has won second up and from a good draw at 1400m on dead or better footing, this is a four-year-old with a serious win chance and I expect this horse to progress through the lower grades this spring.
Songspur and Cosmic Causeway have both drawn out but the four-year-olds are also each second up and ready to deliver.
The pacifiers go back on Songspur again and Damien Oliver will ride, which are both positives along with the 1400m.
The gelding with natural early speed easily won his only start at Ballarat, which is a track that can heavily favour leaders and on-pacers, as they come down the home straight dip and pinch a few lengths.
Cosmic Causeway has won and placed in both his second up outings to date and his two career wins came at 1300m and 1400m respectively, so today he gets several ticks.
The improved footing and 200m increase from his fresh up fourth along with Luke Nolen aboard now for trainer Peter Moody does make him a must include.
Nolen has been the man on top for both wins by Cosmic Causeway and can make it three today.
Backen Lay for the Robert Smerdon stable is a four-year-old in his first preparation and it has only struck slow or worse footing but the off pacer looks to have some scope.
He won his maiden here at Ballarat despite hanging and he does not seem an easy horse to ride, so the booking of Glen Boss here is a plus for mine.
Should the unthinkable happen and four-year-olds not dominate the finish of the final event then from a purely race pattern and track bias point of view a likely leader/on pacer is the five-year-old mare Fomalite.
She may not be showing much of late or any consistency but luck has never been on her side either and this grade here is well within her range.
The mare has won up to the mile and today the blinkers go back on, which is a big help plus Michelle Payne could be just the lass to turn around the form.
If we see Raffles Knight run anywhere near his highest rating achieved in the last year then this level today is not a raffle but in fact a winning ticket.
Cosmic Causeway and Songspur will give you a good sight too.
Enjoy the race.
