3 minute read
It looks a battle in two to win the Woodlands Classic at Kranji today, with the Man ironically being a year younger than the Kid.
Gingerbread Man has to give Fatkid a healthy 3kg in the S$150K feature over 2000m on the turf short course B and this is where the race could well be decided.
This pair do have the Group records to justify they are the top two in the weights and the pair to fear in the ninth race on the card.
The query is Gingerbread Man being able to win at 2000m and carry his weight, as he may be a star sprinter-miler but size is not his forte like stamina.
Fatkid was a good thing beaten last start in the G3 Fortune Bowl (2000m), with his strong closing third belying how far back he was and the hindrance he encountered with the tragic breakdown of Smoking Joe.
His momentum was hampered and to be beaten three lengths at the line under 57kg was an extraordinary effort and nothing ran home more determinedly.
The pair that beat him home carried 3kg and 6kg less respectively and avoided any interference whatsoever across the top, with the winner Tenzing actually getting a saloon passage through on the inner.
I think being a proven G2 and G3 winner at 2000m on the turf makes Fatkid the known factor today and the winner at 56kg plus Stephen Baster getting aboard adds to my confidence.
A rival today in Mitre Peak beat him home in the Fortune Bowl by three lengths but had 6kg less and in the Woodlands gets just 2kg from Fatkid.
The facts and figures all point to the five-year-old gelding Fatkid saluting and it is not like he has been avoiding the big names.
Staggeringly in his last nine starts he has run at G1, G2 or G3 eight times for two wins and a placing.
Factor in he has been luckless in the two of the monster Singapore races each year, namely the Gold Cup and the Derby, and it is hard to fault his endeavour.
Gingerbread Man last start I feel ran one of his most disappointing races yet still clung on for a distant third.
He has only missed paying a dividend twice and one of those was an ordinary effort for eighth but the fourth was behind the unbeaten Super Easy and a creditable one.
The third last start in an Open 1400m under 57kg saw him weaken the closing stages and be beaten over three lengths behind the now at Meydan runner The Comedian and the ageless Waikato.
Maybe the training regime had left Gingerbread Man a bit dour or with less pick up and go but then it may have been the weight and giving away so much that was the deciding factor.
The dramatic rise to a first look ever at 2000m today tells you trainer Bruce Marsh has piled the work into the already ten-time winner.
Whatever he does in the Woodlands will dictate if he too is Dubai bound and will chase the massive Meydan money.
Marsh knows what he is doing and Gingerbread Man has never really let him down when the races with really big consequences have come around.
He tried something similar last July when second up from a wee break Gingerbread Man rose from 1400m to 1800m and it was from an Open into G2 and with an extra 4kg.
Gingerbread Man went down half a length in that Chairman's Trophy to Always Certain, which has proved the form more than worthwhile and he too is now landed in Meydan as part of the Michael Freedman foursome.
This time Gingerbread Man has had two runs since returning and been at 1200m and then 1400m, so more mileage in the legs and note he has never been defeated third up.
Opie Bosson has been on him twice and is yet to win, so friendly ribbing seems assured from rival riders as five different jockeys have already tasted success on a favourite of many Kranji bettors.
The 59kg today for the four-year-old is the biggest impost he has had to manage in Singapore and poignantly he has won before very narrowly with 58kg and finished a not far away second with 58kg.
Make no mistake this is the test Marsh wants as the weight and first time at the trip plus giving away big chunks to rivals will tell him with certainty if Dubai is a done deal or a DNS (did not start) scenario.
It is hard to see the Woodlands winner not being the Kid or the Man but of the rest a couple of things do catch my eye.
Maurice Utrillo will be ridden by Joao Moreira, which is a pairing of the champion trainer Pat Shaw and rider from last year.
The gelding was a very distant third last start behind Cash Luck, which is another of the Freedman foursome now landed at Meydan, and it held some merit as he had 57kg and gave away 5.5kg to the winner.
The second runner home beaten four lengths was Silveron Wings, which carried 5kg less and today he will receive from Maurice Utrillo just 1kg.
Shaw has two other runners in the race and possible pace makers or pace-forcers in South Easter and Power Blitz.
The latter is the choice of Barend Vorster, who does get first dibs, and you can forget last start as he got badly interfered with in that Fortune Bowl tragedy across the top.
It should be noted that Power Blitz is a turf lover while South Easter is more proficient on the poly track.
Silveron Wings never goes a bad race and will be testing the 2000m here with an eye on bigger events later in the year.
Mitre Peak keeps improving and his trainer Hideyuki Takaoka is a wonderful trainer of stayers and he has the experienced Alan Munro aboard in this after an apprentice rode it last start.
That only leaves us with the mare New Rose Wood, which dropping down to 52.5kg can be entertained as the value in your multiples.
She has been G1 placed second over 2000m on the turf, when carrying 55.5kg in the 2010 Singapore Derby, with the winner Race Ahead ironically ridden by Opie Bosson.
The mare since resuming has gone okay under 59kg but been ridden two different ways.
Her third up record is super and the drop here of 6.5kg should get your attention plus trainer Cliff Brown, who has only taken over the mare in recent months, knows all about form reversing middle distance runners.
The booking of Olivier Placais ensures New Rose Wood will be persuaded to compete and keep competing in the run home.
The weight versus distance argument makes me a Fatkid fan while the class factor has Gingerbread Man on top, so I will go with what I have seen happen before and therefore know in selecting the former.
We could well see the Kid show he is the Man here.
Enjoy the main race.
