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Gray To Be Lucky

3 minute read

The final Australian Group 1 of the calendar year will take place at Ascot this Saturday with the renewal of the Kingston Town Classic [1800m].

First contested in 1976, the feature staying event has foregone a number of name changes over the years originally recognised as the Marlboro 50,000 before it finally attained it’s present name in 2007 in order to honour one of Australia’s racing greats, Kingston Town, who won the event in 1982.

Since it’s inception only two horses have ever taken out the event in consecutive years with Summer Beau proving successful in both 1996 and 1997 and more recently Playing God who achieved the feat in 2010 and 2011.

Old Comrade was another galloper who had in fact won the race in consecutive years, however it was during the period of 1999 – 2001 when the race was only run over the mile.

In the last ten years the Group 1 Railway Stakes [1600m] has proven the key lead up race providing five of the past ten winners and this year’s edition will likely follow the same path with nine of the 16 horses set to take part in the event all coming out of the Railway Stakes.

While there is a question mark over the strength of this year’s Railway Stakes [1600m] after the first six horses across the line all finished within one-and-a-half lengths of each other, the strength of the performance of the runner-up Luckygray is unquestionable.

Set too much to do early, Luckygray came from last on the turn to lead the swoopers' charge before he was unable to overcome the big weight impost as he struggled to reel in Mr Moet despite chasing valiantly down the outside.

While he did join the long list of failed topweights of years gone by, Luckygray's performance is arguably the best we have ever seen in the Group 1 feature which was emphasised in him recording the highest Timeform rating of any horse in the race in the last twenty years.

Running to new peak rating of 122 a three pound increase on his previous master rating, he appears very well placed for this afternoon’s event as he will not only meet a majority of the field five kilograms better at the weights but a repeat of that performance narrows the field down to only two horses who really have any chance of beating him.

While there are many concerns that the son of Bradbury’s Luck won't be able to run out a strong 1800m given he failed in the event last year, his racing pattern of being ridden cold should allow him to be settle nicely in the run and be saved up by O'Donnell before letting fly late.

While undoubtedly Luckygray’s best performances have come when racing over the shorter middle distance trips he should still prove to have far too much class for his rivals.

More notably since failing in the event last year, Luckygray has improved five pounds on his previous master rating of 117 achieved when proving successful in last year’s Railway Stakes [1600m] a huge increase given if you take out that performance then his next best was merely 110.

Clearly Luckygray has come a long way in a year and given he is still only lightly raced it is likely that we are still yet to see the best of him, which remains a big concern for the rest of the field because if he was to improve again then there isn’t a horse in this field who has the capabilities to beat him.

Of the other local hopes Playing God will be given the chance to rewrite the history books and become the first horse ever to take out the event in three consecutive years.

Proving too good for his rivals as a three-year-old, Playing God would again shine in the staying feature when scoring comfortably in the race last year when defeating Ranger home by one length.

While his best form has never been seen over in the East, the son of Blackfriars appears to grow another leg when racing at Ascot having only ever missed the money three times in thirteen attempts, notching up six wins and four minor placings.

Looming up to hit the front early in the straight last start, Playing God's fitness just told over the concluding stages when swamped late to finish fourth in the Railway Stakes.

Sticking on to his task well the performance should have topped him off nicely for this afternoon's event and given his form in Group 1 company is quite impressive having collected two wins and five minor placings from 15 attempts he shapes as Luckygray's biggest danger.

On Timeform ratings he sits just one pound below Luckygray on 121, however this rating is questionable given he has never run to this figure when actually winning a race.

Both times he ran to 121 he had in fact filled the minor placings in tougher company, once behind Shocking in the 2011 Group 1 Turnball Stakes [2000m] and the other time behind Black Caviar in this year's C.F. Orr Stakes [1400m].

His highest figure ever achieved when winning a race was actually in last year's edition of the feature event when recording a rating of 118.

While history does not read in his favour, this year's edition of the race is quite weak with the top three chances in the race rated well above the rest with outside Wall Street the next highest rated horse is Rosie Rocket on 114.

Working up nicely to this event it appears Neville Parnham has set him for this race all along and if Luckygray does in fact prove questionable over the trip then it is clear that Playing God will be right there to take advantage.

Kiwi Raider Wall Street has resumed in great order this time in and cannot be dismissed with the son of Montjeu finishing no worse than two-and-a-half lengths off the winner in his last three starts, two of which were in Group 1 company.

Unable to overcome a terrible draw in the Railway Stakes last start, Wall Street will be far better suited under the weight-for-age conditions for today's event and although he is another galloper who is a query over this trip you can never dismiss a multiple Group 1 winner.

Unfortunately he has again drawn poorly and yes it has been a long time between drinks, however if he is able to repeat his recent performances then there is no doubt that both Luckygray and Playing God will know he is there, with his last start performance rated 117 just four pounds shy of both of his rivals.

The Justin Warwick trained Rosie Rocket shapes as the next galloper in line after her slashing run to finish third in the Railway Stakes last start.

Running to an equal career peak of 110 the daughter of Blackfriars has returned in great order this time in finishing a close fourth when resuming in the Listed Northam Cup [1600m], before going on to finish a narrow second in the Listed Ascot Gold Cup [1800m].

Showing great improvement with each start, Rosie Rocket has never missed the money over this trip however whether or not she can improve a further eight pounds to match it with the likes of in Luckygray and Playing God remains another question.

Enjoy the race


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