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Forgotten Voice looks set to become the fourth imported stayer in as many years to triumph in the Geelong Cup this afternoon.
Trained in England by Nicky Henderson, the eight-year-old son of Danehill Dancer clearly looks the horse to beat in a fairly weak renewal of the race.
It’s a funny race the Cup by design, given it’s proximity to the Melbourne Cup each year.
Two years ago it produced Dunaden who ran to a Timeform figure of 122 in winning the race before claiming the Melbourne Cup two weeks later.
Twelve months prior Americain ran to 119 prior to also grabbing a Melbourne Cup win. Last year the winner was Gatewood but he missed a run in the Melbourne Cup.
But just four years ago the winner was Leica Ding, who ran to 106 in winning the race before she was well held in Shocking’s Melbourne Cup.
On paper, this year’s renewal certainly doesn’t fall into the vintage category, offered up to punters in 2010 and 2011.
Which is why Forgotten Voice should simply prove too good.
His trip to Australia hasn’t been without incident.
He copped a bout of travel sickness on arrival, then narrowly missed a start in Saturday’s Caulfield Cup.
But that may have been a blessing in disguise.
He won both starts last campaign, the Listed Wolferton Handicap (2011m) at Ascot running to a weight-adjusted figure of 118, then the Group 3 Glorious Stakes (2414m) running to a figure of 119.
That was 82 days ago and he’s been brought out to Australia specifically with the Melbourne Cup in mind.
A potential wet track holds some concern but he’s never been tested on anything worse than slow, and his half brother Big Occasion certainly had no trouble in the mud winning four times on wet ground.
In any event, none of these look to be going well enough to beat him.
Ibicenco is currently second favourite after running 12th in the Metropolitan behind Seville 18 days ago. He produced a weight-adjusted Timeform rating of 112 on that occasion, improving five pounds on his eighth-placed Naturalism run.
He doesn’t like the wet, and if anything will probably find this a bit short.
In saying that he ran to 115 in winning the Listed Sandown Cup (3200m) in November last year, so don’t rule him out entirely.
Robert Smerdon’s Verdant is also well in the market, but he has a bit to find off a well-held sixth in the Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes (2400m) behind Sea Moon.
He’d likely need to run to a new peak to be winning this, and I wouldn’t expect he’d be doing that on a potentially slow track at career start number 30.
Of the other single-figure chances, Moudre struggles at this trip and didn’t fire in the Herbert Power while Ansett Classic winner Crafty Cruiser simply looks outclassed.
One more to mention is Polish Knight, who ran second in the Australian Derby last year.
He hasn’t threatened that mark since though, and will need to find a lot on his seven-length eighth placing in the Bart Cummings.
