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Wednesday’s $90,000 Listed Tasmanian Newmarket at Launceston looks made to order for the ever reliable Leon Wells-trained Rebel Bride.
Rebel Bride has returned in excellent fashion this campaign however what else was to be expected from a mare who has 11 wins and as many minor placings from 23 career starts.
The Leon Wells-trained six-year-old won the Goodwood Handicap on resuming and didn’t lose any admirers when carrying 60kg into second at this track over 1100m a fortnight ago behind Arenzano.
She gave Arenzano a sizeable lead heading into the straight on that occasion and while closing well late was given a tough assignment with her 60kg impost.
Figures yielded in each of her runs this campaign suggest the popular Tasmanian sprinter is going as well as ever heading into the summer carnival.
She now rises to stakes level where the daughter of Telesto appears much better suited in the Listed Tasmanian Newmarket Handicap (1200m).
Rebel Bride drops 2kg at the weights under Quality conditions where the well performed Geegees Blackflash carries the topweight of 60kg.
The addition of John Luttrell’s stable star compresses weights noticeably in the event where Rebel Bride appears one of the key beneficiaries.
It results in Rebel Bride meeting the likes of Arenzano, Jakcorijim, Jay Bee’s Gee Gee and even Geegees Blackflash on better weight terms from when they last clashed.
Those from Arenzano down sit outside of the handicap which sees them meet the likes of Rebel Bride, Black ‘n’ Tough and Geegees Blackflash worse at the weights than what they should.
While Rebel Bride looks well suited under quality conditions, the six-year-old also should get a race made to order at Launceston on Wednesday evening.
Arenzano and Black ‘n’ Tough are expected to set the tempo while Rebel Bride should slot in just behind them from barrier 5.
From there it should just be a matter of peeling out around the home turn and overpowering the leading pair late.
Something else which augers well for Rebel Bride’s chances on Newmarket success on Saturday is the addition of Craig Newitt.
From four starts together, the pair have recorded three wins and one minor placing.
Newitt always ensures the mare is lurking the speed and knows when to produce her at the right time.
Each of their wins have been by a margin of 1 ¼ lengths or more while their lone defeat was a slender one in the 2012 Vamos Stakes (1400m).
The mare was perhaps at the end of her prep by that point having worked through the grades during a long campaign which yielded a Bow Mistress Stakes success the run prior.
On weight adjusted 50 day Timeform ratings Rebel Bride sits equal highest alongside Arenzano and the early signs are that the former can produce greater improvement.
Arenzano will give her plenty to run down though and does shape as a main danger.
The Barry Campbell-trained mare made an excellent return to racing at Launceston last start after two preparations as a three-year-old where she quickly rose through the grades.
She showed excellent gate speed on resuming last start and was never going to be reeled in after being afforded a soft lead.
The daughter of Not A Single Doubt won’t have things her own way here though with Rebel Bride’s stablemate Black ‘n’ Tough expected to ensure a solid tempo is set.
Black ‘n’ Tough resumes after a career best campaign during the winter where she even posted a mainland victory at Moonee Valley.
She is one of just five horses who sit inside the handicap here and seeing the mare continue on her winning ways would come as no surprise.
From barrier 12, Black ‘n’ Tough is expected to roll across and join Arenzano in the first pair.
The Tough Speed mare is capable of landing a knockout blow in the straight based on her class and the fact she is unbeaten in four prior first up outings.
Her previous first up outing came on the Devonport Synthetic track where she beat Arenzano.
Black ‘n’ Tough had her measure by 1 ¼ lengths on that occasion and even gave the Star Thoroughbreds-raced sprinter 5.5kg.
With two soft wins in between, Black ‘n’ Tough now meets Arenzano 4kg better at the weights here.
The five-year-old looked sharp in her trial win at Longford earlier in the month and appears more than capable of picking up where she left off.
As well as a perfect first up record, Black ‘n’ Tough’s track and distance credentials also support a bold showing to commence her latest campaign.
With 60kg over an unsuitable journey, Geegees Blackflash is hard to recommend however class alone can see him run somewhere thereabouts.
Geegees Blackflash meets Rebel Bride 2kg worse at the weights from when they last clashed where she triumphed which makes it hard to see him winning however a first four result is a possibility.
Mainlander Bocuse profiles as a knockout hope.
The Kelvin Bourke-trained sprinter has held his form well during four runs this campaign and does sit highly in the pecking order on weight adjusted figures.
Watch for him to settle midfield or worse and be working into calculations late.
Overall though, the fairer sex have a very strong hand to play.
Expect Arenzano to take up the running however it will be the Leon Wells-trained duo of Rebel Bride and Black ‘n’ Tough charging home late.
With race fitness and just possessing that class edge it can be Rebel Bride leading in a stable quinella during Wednesday’s Listed Tasmanian Newmarket.
