3 minute read

With the group two Villiers Handicap just over two weeks away, many contesting that race will have their final lead up runs in a very competitive Festival Stakes run at Rosehill over 1500m this afternoon.

Headed in the weights by last year’s Festival Stakes winner Malavio, the race is not straightforward and assembles several strong winning hopes making it difficult for punters to unearth the winner.

Also engaged is last year’s Villiers Handicap winner and runner-up, All Legal who is second up from a long spell and Alma’s Fury.

While the performances of both should be noted for the future, I am looking elsewhere for the winner this afternoon focussing on the improving Ninth Legion and unbeaten mare White Sage.

Early in his career Ninth Legion showed considerable promise, a case in point his close fourth in the G1 Golden Rose Stakes behind Epaulette last year earning a Timeform rating of 112, so it is no surprise to see him now making rapid headway this preparation.

At the start of this year, Ninth Legion was transferred to Team Hawkes and his first preparation for the new yard yielded a win at Sandown and a second behind Toydini in the G2 Phar Lap Stakes over the Rosehill 1500m.

Significantly prior to the start of his most recent campaign he was gelded which has coincided with a more consistent form profile winning last time out at Rosehill over 1350m in open company defeating Said Com.

Ninth Legion ran to a Timeform rating of 105 in that win and I am expecting him to make further improvement again, getting closer to the 112 figure we know he can run to. Certainly taking a line through Toydini who was Epsom placed and winner of the G2 Crystal Mile at Moonee Valley, Ninth Legion has plenty of upside.

Drawn perfectly in four, Ninth Legion will be ridden in a race for the first time by Tommy Berry, although the crack young rider has been atop the gelding in recent barrier trials.

Talented grey mare White Sage faces her biggest task to date tackling open company against both sexes for the first time, but she has been winning so easily against easier class that on projected ratings she looks a genuine winning hope.

Undefeated in four race starts, her average winning margin is almost four lengths. She comes into today’s race third up this campaign after easily defeating her own sex both times in benchmark 80 company over 1200m and 1350m respectively.

Prepared by John O’Shea, the mare steps up to 1500m for the first time and leading rider James McDonald will replace claiming apprentice Lester Grace who was atop her last time out.

The one negative is her wide draw of 15 placing her on the outside of the entire field but she has abundant early speed and McDonald will use that to get her up near the lead. If she overcomes that hurdle, despite being out of the handicap on ratings, she has the potential to make further improvement and be in the finish.

The Peter Snowden-trained Limes is another drawn wide who has definite winning claims if he can overcome the same hurdle.

Despite winning just two races in 18 career starts, his form is actually better than that, his third in the ATC Sires Produce Stakes behind Pierro and All Too Hard a good example.

Limes has started twice since a spell and his most recent effort when fifth at Flemington behind Longport over 1400m is a sure guide to him nearing best form again.

Interestingly Snowden has given the gelding a trial at Warwick Farm last week over 1200m which he won stylishly so he should be ready to run to his best Timeform ratings this afternoon.

It is also worth noting that when last in work Limes holds a win over latest rising star Boban in the Listed Hawkesbury Guineas over 1400m.

Said Com and Strike The Stars round out the main winning chances but this race has plenty of depth to it when it comes to winning chances.

Both gallopers have not always been regarded as the most reliable, but they bring good form to the race which if reproduced will see them in the finish.

Trained by Chris Waller and to be ridden by Hugh Bowman, Said Com will be having his third run from a spell today and caught the eye last start when a fast closing second to Ninth Legion in the hands of apprentice Serg Lisnyy.

The positive riding switch to Bowman is a significant factor, especially as Bowman has won twice previously on the gelding.

The step up to 1500m will also be to Said Com’s advantage and further improvement can be expected.

Group one placed as a three-year-old, Strike The Stars has struggled to repeat that form since. However this campaign does promise to be his best for some time and according to trainer Anthony Cummings, Strike The Stars is issue free for the first time in a while and this has been reflected in his ratings.

Strike The Stars resumed with a last stride win over 1400m at Randwick then finished third in G3 company behind Smokin’ Joey over 1400m at Flemington before a closing sixth last start in the G1 Emirates Stakes over 1600m also at Flemington.

Admittedly he drops back to 1500m this afternoon but he also drops sharply in class and that will aid his chances significantly.

Enjoy a competitive Festival Stakes renewal.