3 minute read

Champion trainer John Hawkes has already won one Epsom Handicap with Dodge in 1998 now 15 years on looks like landing another with the talented Entirely Platinum.

The Epsom Handicap is time-honoured race at Randwick. First run in 1865 when won by Dundee, the race has been won by some of Australia’s best milers such as back-to-back winner Super Impose in the 1990’s.

John Hawkes training in partnership with his sons Wayne and Michael, knows what it takes to win a tough Randwick group one mile and the lightly raced son of Pentire looks an ideal type.

The six-year-old has always shown considerable promise winning six of his 22 race starts, however he was tried as a stayer in his last two campaigns and his record, with all runs past 1600m removed from his form guide, suddenly look a lot better – five wins and six placing from 15 starts.

Entirely Platinum has raced twice since a spell – both times in G1 weight for age company in Melbourne - that form brings him right into this race with a winning adjusted Timeform rating.

After finishing second fresh up behind Boban in the G1 Memsie Stakes over 1400m at Caulfield, subsequent G1 Rupert Clark Stakes winner Stratum Star was third in the same race, Entirely Platinum was then caught late near the line in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes behind Fawkner beaten less than a length.

In both those races he travelled with the speed and fought on - I expect similar tactics to be employed today from his wide barrier draw with a touch more improvement still to come.

Certainly with the weights raised four kilos to meet a 58kgs top weight requirement under the Australian Rules of racing, there is only a two kilo weight spread which favours those in the original handicap.

The Racing and Sports unique field strength values point to Entirely Platinum’s two Melbourne group one races being stronger form than most of his rivals can boast and the fact he comes into the race third up from a spell off a new peak Timeform rating last start is a powerful historic profiling statistic.

18 of the last 20 winners have either been third or fourth run back from a spell and 12 of the 20 have run new peak Timeform ratings at their previous start.

If successful, Entirely Platinum will become the first six-year-old to win the Epsom since Final Fantasy skated around the Kensington track to score in 2001. He will also join Racing To Win (2006) and Filante (1996) as the only winners in the last 20 years to have carried 57kgs to victory – the highest weight in that period.

Further analysis on 20 years of history for the Epsom clearly points to four-year-old males being the dominant age group winning 16 times, but as this season’s crop for that age group is thin on the ground there are only three contenders in this renewal – the mare and short priced favourite Winx, Sweynesse and Pressing.

Pressing is well out of the handicap and is not fancied while Winx and Sweynesse will have admirers.

Sweynesse is the only runner in the race that “historically speaking” almost fits the successful profile of previous winners.

Under the care of John O’Shea, Sweynesse a four-year-old male comes into the race third up from a spell, last raced in the G1 George Main Stakes and was also placed in the G1 Randwick Guineas over this course and distance at three.

Past winners of the Epsom to have raced in the Randwick Guineas include Rock Kingdom and Captain Sonador while Hooked was third in the 2014 Epsom after running in the previous season’s Guineas.

Sweynesse is another runner who was tried over staying trips at his last two campaigns but now seems to be better suited at 1600m.

In his first campaign at three he ended up with a third in the Spring Champion Stakes before eighth in the Cox Plate, then last campaign failed to stay 2000m in the Rosehill Guineas.

This preparation, O’Shea has taken him along steadily first up in the Tramway then last start in the George Main Stakes.

Both runs were passes but both were on wet ground and his best rating efforts have been on firmer going. In fact his Randwick Guineas second behind Hallowed Crown is the last run he has on a good track in a suitable race. If he repeats that Timeform Rating today he will be right in the finish.

Leading trainer Chris Waller is heading for his third straight Epsom Handicap winner having won with Boban (2013) and last year He’s Your Man. He will saddle up three excellent chances, Winx, Silverball and Sadler’s Lake.

Waller’s record in Randwick 1600m handicap races is second only to Gai Waterhouse who has won the Doncaster seven times and the Epsom seven time. But Waller has won the last three Doncaster Handicap renewals (Sacred Falls 2013/14, Kermadec 2015) and the last two Epsom Handicaps - a win today would give him a rare achievement of winning each of the Randwick features for three consecutive years – something that even Waterhouse has not achieved.

Weight adjusted Timeform ratings suggest there is not much between Winx and Silverball with a slight leaning to the latter.

Waller is using the same preparation with Silverball that he used with last year’s winner He’s Your Man –dropping back 400m from a win in the G3 Kingston Town Stakes.

Dropping horses back in trip prior to a big Randwick mile is not new for Waller. He also used the same technique with Doncaster Handicap winners Sacred Falls and Rangirangdoo.

So there is some strong patterns there to support Waller’s surprise decision to set Silverball for the Epsom.

A much travelled galloper, Silverball had raced in France, Dubai and Hong Kong before joining Waller. However under Waller’s care the grey has gone to a new level. There was a lot to like about his strong win in the Kingston Town under a big weight after coming around the entire field.

Silverball has won five of his seven runs around 1600m and he will make his presence felt at the business end this afternoon.

While hard to beat, race favourite Winx does not represent any value at the current odds on offer.

Winx resumed with an eye catching last to first win in the G2 Theo Marks (1300m) 21 days ago in a performance that had racegoers aghast at her closing sectionals.

The performance was certainly impressive but this race is totally different. Winx ran to a new peak Timeform rating in the Theo Marks and while historically that is a positive going into the race, no winner in the last 20 years has been second up from a spell.

In addition she rises in weight, class and distance - again no winner in the last 20 years has risen in weight from their lead up run and won.

As a mare with 57kgs to carry she also faces another very serious hurdle – no mare has been successful with more than 55.5kgs in the race since Djin Djin in 1899. Stable mate Royal Descent went down last year carrying 55.5kgs and Streama the year prior carrying 54.5kgs.

Lastly weight adjusted Timeform ratings suggest she also has a few pounds to find to put her solidly in the frame against some of the better handicapped runners.

Last year’s third placed runner Hooked will be hoping he can go a couple of spots better this afternoon and weight adjusted Timeform ratings suggest he is not without a serious hope.

An impressive winner of the Tramway Handicap when resuming, Hooked then disappointed in the George Main Stakes finishing last after being with the speed and getting caught in the worst going in the straight.

Hooked loves the 1600m and has the speed to control the race from the front and cannot be left of calculations but he too has a little history hoodoo to overcome, aiming to become just the second horse since 1885 to run third one year and then win the Epsom the following year. Only the Gai Waterhouse trained Iron Horse in 1996/7 has achieved the feat.

Champion trainer Gai Waterhouse will be aiming for a eighth win the Epsom with the handy Ecuador who comes into the race on an upward form spiral after two runs back from a spell. While he will need to find a few pounds to trouble the field, he is definitely a multiples hope at odds.

Enjoy the race.