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Arc Clues from the Longchamp Trials.
The three key trials for the G1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (2400m) are staged three weeks prior to the event, at Longchamp over the same course and distance. Key contenders for the Group One event are likely to contest either of the three races - the Prix Niel, Prix Vermeille or the Prix Foy with many of the main challengers for the Arc prize opting for a preparation run in one of these three contests. This is especially the case with international runners who will often be testing themselves on the Parisienne track for the first time. The three combined trials have yielded twenty-one winners who achieved victory in the same year's Arc. Before the 100th running of the race this season we delve into the records of each key trial to offer any potential clues for finding the 2021 Arc winner.
Twelve winners of the G2 Prix Niel (2400m) have subsequently landed the Arc in the same season. The first was Sica Boy (Sunny Boy) in 1954, with the most recent being Rail Link (Dansili) in 2006. A horse who reaches the placings in this trial can go on to score in the Arc. Since the turn of the century, Bago (Nashwan) delivered this feat in 2004. Sottsass (Siyouni) won the 2019 trial and went on to claim the Arc last season before retiring to Coolmore Stud for owners White Birch Farm. This season's Prix Niel winner is unlikely to complete the Arc double. Bubble Gift (Nathaniel) edged out Baby Rider (Gleneagles) in a tight finish to the Prix Niel, with the form appearing a step behind the required level.
In 2013, the phenomenal equine champion and dual Arc winner, Treve (Motivator), became the sixth horse to win the G1 Prix Vermeille (2400m) and the Arc in the same year. The Aga Khan-owned superstar Zarkava (Zamindar) was a notable winner of both races during the 2008 season, and the esteemed owner-breeder has a strong hand in this season's Arc with three-time Group One winner Tarnawa (Shamardal). The Dermot Weld-trained mare could emulate Sottsass by winning the Arc one season after winning a key trial for the race. She will be ridden by Christophe Soumillon, who was onboard in both of her Prix Vermeille and G1 Prix de l'Opera (2000m) victories last term. This year's Prix Vermeille could play a pivotal role in the outcome of France's most celebrated race - Teona (Sea The Stars) turned around her 28-length defeat behind Snowfall (Deep Impact) at the G1 Epsom Oaks (2400m) in no uncertain terms to comfortably see off the heavy favourite, who had too much ground to make up in the Longchamp straight. It would be folly to dismiss Teona's claims as an improving filly who would relish quick conditions. Snowfall, who had won three Group One events over the 2400m distance this term, wasn't at her best in the Prix Vermeille and is a key player receiving her advantageous three-year-old and fillies weight allowance.
The G2 Prix Foy (2400m) is the least likely trial to throw up the Arc winner in the same season according to the numbers, with only three winners having notched that double - Allez France (Sea Bird) in 1974, Sagace (Luthier) in 1984 and Waldgeist (Galileo) in 2019. Like the Prix Niel, horses have won the Arc after tasting defeat in this trail, including Subotica (Pampabird) in 1992. Deep Bond (Kizuna) was an impressive all-the-way winner in this season's renewal for one of the biggest owners in Japan, Koji Maeda. He bids to give their nation a first victory in the race, having gone close in the past courtesy of Orfevre (Stay Gold), who finished a gallant runner-up in consecutive Arcs (2012/13).
