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It's the 44th running of the Japan Cup, a G1 over 2400m run at Tokyo's Fuchu track.
The home team is led by Morning Line favourite Do Deuce on 2.9. He will be ridden by Take and has ticked most of the boxes especially when it comes to strong finishes as he showed winning the Tenno Sho (Autumn) at his last outing.
Currently favourite in UK markets is the talented filly Cervinia, the mount of Lemaire, who won the Shuka Sho (Oaks) in a faster time than they boys ran in the Derby. In the UK she's on 5/2 and at home 4.2 probably because the race has only be won twice by 3yo fillies.
Justin Palace is on 7.4 and he's one of those horses who tends to go under the radar but he's pretty consistent without hitting the headlines. The UK has him on 7.1 and Cristian Demuro rides.
Those three represent the runners in single figures at home whereas the UK market has Goliath in there are 5/1 and August Rodin on 13/2 ahead of Justin Palace and we would tend to agree with this.
In Japan August Rodin is on 11.0, Goliath 11.9 and Fantastic Moon 58.5.
There are several roughies in the local team which could be worth following in the market and they include Stars on Earth on 14.5, Durezza on 16.2 and Shin Emperor on 27.6. Stars on Earth is by Duramente and has finished in the first three in his G1 races. He was third in this race last year. Durezza is on 16.2 and looks to be training very well. He went to York this year and was close to subsequent Arc winner Blue Stocking. William Buick is on a short-term licence in Japan and will take the ride. Shin Emperor is a 3yo who went to Europe this year and ran well in the Irish Champion Stakes but came unstuck in the heavy track in the Arc. He's on 27.6 and could be worth at least putting in the multiples.
The stats – firstly Post Position – 14 has the most win and this year that's Starts on Earth, then 1 and 2 which are the gates for Goliath and Blow The Horn, and 4 and 6 – Justin Palace and Danon Beluga,
The favourite has the most wins with the third favourite next best – this year that's Do Deuce and Justin Palace.
Sex and Age – 4yo boys have the best record and this year they are Goliath, Auguste Rodin, Durezza, Sol Oriens and Fantastic Moon.
There are 14 starters so take your pick. We think that if Auguste Rodin is on song he could win and if he's not Do Deuce should do it. Stars on Earth comes in and so does Cervinia. It's a very open race.
