3 minute read
Scott Embry provides his best bets for the Thoroughbred meeting at Ascot on Saturday, 16th Nevember 2024. Brought to you by the TABtouch Blog.
FIRST BEACH was unlucky last weekend when unable to build momentum at any stage. On the 7-day back-up, gets out to 1400m and can stalk the genuine tempo likely to be set by God's Gate / Our Rocky Bay / Profit Pocket. Looks a good set up for him and he'll go around eachway without Pike. OUR ROCKY BAY ran well first-up behind Norich and now steps out to a more suitable 1400m and has a set of blinkers going on for the first time. GOD'S GATE has the blinkers removed as he steps out to 1400m. Love the placement into a 60+ Graduation. MISS SKYHIGH steamed home in 33.16 L600 and showed something.
Numbers: 9 – 4 – 12 – 3
Suggested Bet – FIRST BEACH EACHWAY
BORDER FORCE won his first race in over 1000 days on Melbourne Cup Day and thinking that with that confidence boost he can put back to back wins together. Had been luckless at his prior three runs and can take advantage of his ideal barrier. SPEAK TO ME has backed up three times in his life and is yet to register a minor placing. Going undeniably well but considering he'll jump favourite it's a red flag worth raising. AMJAAD was given every mortal hope last start by Steve Parnham, first 900m = 19L slower than average, last 600m = 12L faster than average. WAR MATTERS won well last start.
Numbers: 9 – 1 – 8 – 12
Suggested Bet – BORDER FORCE EACHWAY
GREAT FORTUNE looks thrown an ideal map here. He'll cross Bad Wolf and Above The Peg in the first few strides and then there's really no other speed or pressure coming his way. Brad Parnham should be able to control and dictate to suit himself and then pull the trigger and go for home with only 54kg on his back in what looks a highly tactical affair. WATCH ME ROCK went to a whole new level last start with the blinkers on. That was easily career best and a win of a horse who was ready to really announce himself. BRAVE SPIRIT drops out of the Asian Beau and has a set of blinkers on for the first time. Big respect. ANTIQUE MISS flies off 7 days.
Numbers: 11 – 5 – 4 – 2
Suggested Bet – GREAT FORTUNE WIN
JOKERS GRIN didn't let his growing fan base down at his return to racing with a dominant near 1L win over 1000m. He handled Ascot well and his last 600m sectional was ridiculous: 32.71. This is another test for him, 59kg, wide draw, near capacity line-up and likely to concede main danger Devine Belief a decent head start but he's still improving with racing and that's scary. DEVINE BELIEF is a genuine threat. She's a legitimate danger who will have a position in run advantage over Joker's Grin and is a fresh Ascot 1000 specialist. Game on. BOPPING BLUE was excellent at his Fernie Racing debut. THOMAS MAGNUM next best.
Numbers: 4 – 3 – 2 – 6
Suggested Bet – JOKERS GRIN WIN
SNOWDOME won the Prince Of Wales first-up last season as a 4 year old horse and attacks the Colonel Reeves first-up this season as a 5 year old gelding. Goes huge fresh, is drawn underneath both Man Crush and Almighty Class and that should ensure he gets across into a commanding position at a near double figure price tag. Could be the forgotten horse. ALMIGHTY CLASS has come back bigger and better this campaign and is thriving off high speed, high pressure racing. He's hard to beat provided he gets across from his awkward draw. WESTERN EMPIRE has trialled brilliantly leading into his return and will sit off them and be bursting through late. ROPE THEM IN gets 5kg on Almighty Class for a 1.6L defeat.
Numbers: 4 – 8 – 1 – 10
Suggested Bet – SNOWDOME EACHWAY
FLOWER OF GOLD was an outstanding run in defeat behind London's Image in a messy Burgess Queen Stakes on Melbourne Cup Day. Jordy Turner had nowhere to go from the 600 – 200 when bolting behind tiring horses and then once clear she flashed late into a narrow third placing. Gives the impression 1600m will suit. DIAMOND DANCER looks the big beneficiary of the fact London's Image goes to the Placid Ark and not the Champion Fillies. Straight to the top and controls. RON'S FINALFLUTTER was every bit as good as Flower Of Gold in the Burgess Queen. STORYVILLE had excuses as well and found the line late.
Numbers: 4 – 7 – 2 – 5
Suggested Bet – FLOWER OF GOLD WIN
Same Race Multi – Flower Of Gold (Top 2) + Diamond Dancer (Top 4)
Flower Of Gold rattled home through heavy traffic in the Burgess Queen and can every indication that she would really appreciate an extra furlong to wind up into the race. Happy to lock her in to run Top 2. Diamond Dancer is the only leader in the race and Luke Campbell can dictate terms before kicking for home.
LUVNWAR made a real impression in her first Australian preparation as a 3 year old filly at Belmont Park and her first-up run this campaign when second to Super Smink in the Asian Beau suggests she's back even better again. Has a full set of blinkers on (raced previously in a near side blinker) and looks like she'll get across on paper. AZTEC RULER was three deep the trip in the same race and was a massive effort to hold on a run third. Handicap racing is his go and looks overs in early markets. AMBER GLIDE is always sneaking under the radar. YONGA LASS may appreciate the wider draw and being ridden cold.
Numbers: 8 – 4 – 3 – 12
Suggested Bet – LUVNWAR WIN
WIND AND THE LION put on a show in the mounting yard and behind the barriers in the Placid Ark Prelude when very fresh. Hopefully second-up he is on his best behaviour because from barrier 3 he maps to get a far superior run to first-up when he had no option but to drag back and wide. Still ran the fastest L600 and with a better run in transit can bounce back to his best. REPOSSESSION didn't jump that well in the Prelude but took advantage of the fact nobody showed any intent in the first 200m and he was able to muster up underneath them. Where will he land this time? HORCRUX battled on well in the Fairetha. MAGNA'S CHOICE is desperately sweating on a scratching to gain a start as E1.
Numbers: 7 – 4 – 6 – 17
Suggested Bet – WIND AND THE LION WIN
TOROPA looks a great bet in an outstanding edition of the Jungle Mist Classic. She's got the Almighty Class form which could become Group 3 Colonel Reeves form earlier in the day and she's drawn to get a lovely run midfield with cover. Never missed the money after 8 starts and we're getting an eachway price to follow her through into her first crack at Fillies & Mares grade on the 55kg minimum. TWAIN'S ANGEL suffered her first career defeat in the same race. Can come on quickly second-up. THE BOSS LADY broke 33 seconds L600 under 60kg fresh and is better suited over 1200m. SENTIMENTAL BELLE just keeps producing and now has blinkers first time.
Numbers: 14 – 6 – 5 – 13
Suggested Bet – TOROPA EACHWAY
Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)
2,4,5,7,8
3,4,8,12
4,7,17
5,6,13,14
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