3 minute read
An outstanding edition of The Golden Rose with angles aplenty.
Always one of the best races on the calendar, the Group 1 Golden Rose (1400m) sees the best three-year-olds over seven furlongs.
It throws up plenty of questions – who is a sprinter? Who is a miler? Who has made the next step? And, most importantly, who is the best?
This year, there are multiple horses to fit those questions. We'll start with the first-up horse Broadsiding, who is attempting to become the first ever horse to win a Golden Rose first-up from a spell, at least since it's been a Group 1.
Only five have attempted it in 15 years, and the best finishing position is just 6th. That was by Yankee Rose who was rated 118 on the R&S scale and 120 by Timeform.
Broadisiding is rated 116. A very warm 116, seemingly with plenty more to come, but they've both been over 1600m, and if anything the consensus is he'll be a 2000m horse in time.
His 1400m ratings read 102 and 109. A rating of 109 would miss out on the placings in every Group 1 Golden Rose ever run.
Even him running to his peak of 116 here is almost certain to miss out on victory, so he has to run to a new peak rating, first-up at a distance short of his best, from a very sticky inside draw. Very keen to be against as early favourite.
That creates plenty of betting opportunities, and the next two in line have their own questions.
Storm Boy ran to 118 first-up over 1100m before dipping last time, running 113. Things probably didn't go to plan there but I'm still of the opinion he's a miler in waiting, and a high pressure 1400m is going to bring out the best in him.
The wide draw looks good because he can force the issue and really run them along. Off his SP profile I'm surprised he isn't the default favourite.
Traffic Warden was outstanding beating Storm Boy first-up, running to 117, a peak rating for him on the R&S scale.
There's every chance he improves here as well. He's gone to 1400m twice and run a new peak rating by five pounds each time he's done it. If he improves five pounds here, he's an odds-on chance.
The only other horse I can really see winning is Linebacker but I think he's short enough given he has to turn the tables on Traffic Warden (and Storm Boy), over trips that I think will suit all.
Keen to bet here. I'm heavily against Broadsiding at the price, and can't really split Storm Boy and Traffic Warden. The rest I'm more or less in line with the market, but I'd mark both Storm Boy and Traffic Warden under $4, and Broadsiding closer to $7 with Linebacker next.
Best odds at the time of writing allow you to dutch Storm Boy and Traffic Warden for a return of $2.20 which looks good betting.
