3 minute read
The third and final Group One of The Pinnacles takes place this Saturday with The Northerly Stakes.
The Northerly Stakes (1800m) is easily my favourite race in Perth. It often attracts the best of the interstate raiders and especially in recent years, the best three-year-olds down in the weights have been prominent.
Throw in the best from the Railway two weeks prior making the jump to weight-for-age and its usually a great race.
This year is dominated by one of the better credentialed raiders we've seen as Zaaki sits between 9 and 38 official ratings points clear of his rivals, with two three-year-olds understandably rated lower.
Looking at the Timeform ratings, which are at weight-for-age, Zaaki is currently rated 122 off his 1.5 length sixth place in the Cox Plate. His three other starts this preparation rated 118, 118, 119.
Over the past five years, the winning standard for the Northerly Stakes (formerly the Kingston Town) is 115.8, effectively meaning any of Zaaki's past four ratings would win a typical Northerly.
The only edition he wouldn't win is Arcadia Queen's monstrous 121 as a three-year-old filly, who was rated 112 (effectively 116 given her 2kg mare's allowance) off her 3-length win in the WA Guineas.
Zaaki running to his number is no guarantee, but it is a pretty good benchmark, and if he does run somewhere around 118, the others have to come and get him.
The most likely horses to do those seem to be the three-year-olds, who have dominated this race in recent years with Arcadia Queen, Kay Cee and Amelia's Jewel all fillies in the past five years to have won, along with Perfect Reflection (2015), Ihtsahymn (2013), Playing God (2010), Megatic (2007) and Old Comrade (2000) this century.
This year we have two-three-year-olds but no fillies, both are male, and both come through the WA Guineas. Zipaway won the race and A Lot Of Good Men men ran second, with just 0.4 lengths separating the pair.
I thought A Lot Of Good Men was the better run given Zipaway bounced out, sat on speed and was given a great ride to pinch a break and just hold on. A Lot Of Good Men charged into second and gave a better indication he'll relish the 1800m.
Zipaway is rated 110 off his win last start and for all intents and purposes I think A Lot Of Good Men is about a 110 horse as well given his effort last start.
Looking at other recent three-year-old winners of the Northerly Stakes, we can see the level of improvement required year on year, noting that fillies have had their 2kg allowance added.
| Horse & Year | Start Prior | Peak Prior Rating | Northerly Rating | Improvement |
| Amelia's Jewel ('22) | 1st, WA Guineas | 113+ | 118 | +5 |
| Kay Cee ('19) | 2nd, WA Guineas | 108 | 117 | +9 |
| Arcadia Queen ('18) | 1st, WA Guineas | 116 | 125 | +9 |
| Perfect Reflection ('15) | 1st, Champ Fillies | 109p | 117p | +8 |
| Ihtsahymn ('13) | 1st, WA Guineas | 105 | 115 | +10 |
| Playing God ('10) | 1st, Aquanita | 110 | 115 | +5 |
As you can see, three-year-olds that win the Northerly Stakes take somewhere between 5-10 pounds improvement. The key thing to remember however, is that not all of them do improve. Plenty have run in the race and just held their rating or even regressed.
That said, it shows the level of improvement typically required. If Zaaki runs his race, the pair of three-year-olds need to improve in the upper end of that bracket, roughly 8 pounds. It's not impossible as you can see, but only a few do it.
Then you have the horses through the Railway Stakes, but history will show than the Railway typically isn't the best form for the Northerly.
In the past 10 years just 3 winners have come through the Railway from 80 runners, with the market expecting ~6.8 by random chance in that time. I don't think that will change this year, with the Railway won by Bustler running to 115. I think those horses have hit their ceiling, and even if Zaaki doesn't run up to his level, I think one of the three-year-olds can make that leap.
Zaaki clearly the horse to beat and around the $2.65 with TABtouch is more than fair enough. You're betting on him travelling over and running near his best, but if he does, he's closer to a $1.80 chance.
A Lot Of Good Men is the main danger given I think he'll relish the 1800m and draws better than Zipaway, with the $10 at TABtouch appealing as the other bet in the race. Happy to risk the Railway form.
2023 Northerly Stakes
Top tip- #1 Zaaki at $2.65 with TABtouch*
Also backing- #16 A Lot Of Good Men at $10 with TABtouch*
*Odds correct at 6pm, 6/12/23
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