3 minute read
Plenty of ratings to dissect that could help shape the Spring.
Caulfield Three-Year-Olds
The Group 3 Vain Stakes (1100m) was won by Band Of Brothers, and the rating has confirmed the consensus pre-race- this was not a strong edition.
Band Of Brothers has run to 100 on the Timeform scale, which is the second-lowest winning rating in the past ten years. Only Gold Symphony (99) in 2015 has rated lower to win the race, with the median rating in that time coming in at 104.5.
The best of those is very clearly Bivouac at 119 in 2019, nine pounds clear of the next best winner, Ingratiating, in 2021.
The overall time was the slowest of four 1100m races on the card, around three lengths slower than the girls in the Group 3 Quezette Stakes (1100m) which was won by Drifting.
It was a good win by Drifting in the Quezette, who boasted good two-year-old form in Sydney, holding a peak Timeform rating of 108 when winning the Group 3 Magic Night Stakes (1200m) at Rosehill.
In comparison to the boys, Drifting was the fastest of the four 1100m races on the card in what was actually a very good time figure- the best on the entire card.
She's run to a Timeform rating of 106 first-up, which sits in the meaty bit of the Quezette curve, equal to the median winning rating in the past ten years.
Her win sits alongside I Am A Star, Crown Witness and Sunlight. Two of those three went right on with it as Group 1 winners, and both in that same preparation.
Higher than 106 in the Quezette in the past ten years are Exhilarates (107) and Petits Filous (109).
Lawrence
The Group 2 P B Lawrence Stakes (1400m) lacked that genuine star power this year but Gentleman Roy has still put up a solid rating to win. The R&S ratings scale is most appropriate here, where the margins are compressed, and so we have Gentleman Roy coming in at 116.
His peak rating, on the same R&S scale, is just one pound higher at 117, when he crossed the line first in the Group 1 C F Orr Stakes (1400m) but ultimately lost on protest.
It's been an excellent training effort by the Hayes yard to get him back to his best and winning again, and it'll be interesting to see where he's placed in the Spring.
A rating of 116 is just below a typical Lawrence winner, which often does have a genuine Group 1 horse in it.
In the past ten years, Hartnell tops the list at 122 on the R&S scale from Mr Brightside last year at 121. Mr Brightside's win two years ago came in at the lower end of 114.
A 116 rating sits alongside Star Rolling and Savatiano, and one pound ahead of Sierra Sue in 2021.
Rosehill
Plenty of promising winners in Sydney, kicking off with Autumn Glow in the opener.
A filly by the Autumn Sun, she debuted in a Saturday benchmark 72 which gives the indication she might just be handy and the win was good, without getting carried away.
On the R&S scale, she's run to 105 which is certainly very promising. I wouldn't say she's the Flight Stakes winner just yet but if Waller is happy to keep throwing her in the deep end she should measure up to the lead up races at least.
The time punters will be all over her having run the fastest speed figure of the card, and even having first use of the track, she'll be very short on a lot of models next time out.
Rosebud
In comparison to the Vain in Melbourne, the Listed Rosebud Stakes (1100m) has gone well with Gatsby's running to 110 with Timeform, meaning he's run 10 pounds better on the same scale than Band Of Brothers did at Caulfield.
110 for a Rosebud winner is actually fairly typical. In the past ten years, the winning median Timeform rating is exactly 110, while the average is just below at 109.4.
The best winner in that time is clearly Menari who went like a rocket and ran to 120. The likes of Anders & Paulele (both 114) are also recent winners.
Still, Gatsby's looks plenty promising and a key player in both the Golden Rose & Coolmore.
Later in the card, Tom Kitten resumed as a gelding and was back to something like his best, aided by an outstanding James Mcdonald ride.
He's run to 117 with Timeform here, which is the second best rating of his career, just one pound shy of his 118 Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes (2000m) win.
Stablemate Pericles won this exact same open handicap last year with a Timeform rating of 115, so Tom has bettered that. They've mentioned the Tramway as the next possible run, which is what Pericles won last year.
Tom looks to be on an Epsom path and the bookies concur, winding him into favourite over Celestial Legend, who holds a peak Timeform rating of 117. Nothing between them.
