3 minute read
A huge weekend of racing with some potential superstars announcing themselves.
Caulfield
Arrogant win by this very exciting colt who put this field to bed in a matter of strides. He could've easily won this by three or four lengths had Mark Zahra not eased him right down late, and he's still put big margins back through the field.
Timeform has him running to a rating of 116, up from his 4.5 length in Adelaide which rated 111. Again here, his rating, which is already excellent, is backed up by a very good time.
It was a genuine enough tempo and he's run a strong time figure compared to the other chute races on the card. On raw times it doesn't look as fast compared to the whole card, but the chute played slower, likely due to the wind.
He's run around 7 lengths faster than Quintessa over the 1200m and done it throttled right down late.
Going back this century, only two horses have run a better Timeform rating to win the McNeil- Bel Esprit (123) in 2002 and Tully Dane (117) in 2001.
Bel Esprit was already a Blue Diamond winner and would win a Doomben 10,000, but Tully Dane didn't go on with it.
In terms of recent colts to have won the McNeil, we've got the likes of Merchant Navy and Jacquinot, both running to 114. Merchant Navy won the Coolmore and a Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot. Jacquinot went straight to the Golden Rose and won that with a 120 rating, also winning an Orr on protest in the Autumn.
Growing Empire is already better than both of those horses at this stage of their careers. Ciaron Maher said he'd follow the traditional Flemington path to the Coolmore, where I think he'll kick their heads in. I wouldn't be surprised if they were almost forced to aim up and run in The Everest for Yu Long's slot, where I think he'd be very competitive.
Easily the best three-year-old in Melbourne, and close to the best in the country.
Good story with Pinstriped winning the Memsie Stakes. He got the right run on the back of Mr Brightside and has run to a new peak rating of 121, which is right about average for a Memsie winner.
Mr Brightside ran to 122 last year to win the Memsie but was second-up having run to 121 first-up to win the Lawrence. He's come back basically in line with what he does, and actually even better than last campaign where he managed to win the Orr with a rating of 116 before going 122 in the Futurity.
If he clashed with Via Sistina in the Makybe Diva, she won't want to (and shouldn't) be going backwards off her Winx Stakes win because Mr Brightside looks nailed on to run 122 second-up.
Pinstriped had his day and can probably hold a rating around the 118-120 mark, but it'll only get tougher in Group Ones. They mentioned the Feehan Stakes as a possible option which I think is very smart.
Query out on Pride Of Jenni. Tricky conditions, maybe wants further. She didn't lead nearly as quickly as she can but Bates still rated her what is typically pretty good. Fascinating betting proposition this campaign.
Win of the day went to Growing Empire but this is a good second. Another Wil had no right to win this race from where he was, ending up with one of the fastest finishing speed percentages of the entire day.
Outside of a farcical Heatherlie, he's run his race the least efficiently of any horse on the day, and still won.
He's run a Timeform rating of 113+, technically not a new peak on the absolute ratings, but with any sort of sectional mark up, of which there is plenty, he has run a new peak.
He's only a Group 3 winner so should get in very nicely in a Toorak, and that race is his to lose. He started $3.50 in a Doncaster and has come back even better this time. He should start $2.50 and win the Toorak. He'd also be a sneaky chance in a Champions Mile or Champions Stakes if they want to try 2000m, which he'd eat up.
Rosehill
He's back alright. Dominant win from Storm Boy first-up, running to a new peak rating of 118.
Some places that heavily value times have his Magic Millions win still a peak, but Timeform made that win 116, albeit with plenty of strength behind it.
He got an easy enough time in front but the overall time against the card is pretty good on a day they weren't running fast times.
He's made a statement here and reclaims the mantle as the highest rated three-year-old in the country. He's clearly the #1 seed for the Golden Rose, and I really hope we see him line up in a Caulfield Guineas and maybe a Cox Plate.
That said, I'd love to see him and Growing Empire meet in a Coolmore and/or Everest.
Tropicus was good from the back and can win a good race away from the Group Ones this preparation.
Another good performance from Autumn Glow to take out the Up And Coming. Her Timeform rating has improved seven pounds to 105 which is basically just in line with what her sectional mark up was from her debut where she ran 98+.
I think staying at 1300m was clearly a negative for her as she'll get 2000m and further if they want to in time.
A typical Flight Stakes winner runs around 116 so she will need to improve, but she looks every bit capable of doing so, and a Spring Champion Stakes over 2000m would be an ideal target, although Waller may not press on that far, a la Funstar.
In summary, I think Growing Empire is an absolute star and will win the Coolmore. Mr Brightside has come back as well as ever and should continue to run his usual ratings progression, which will likely win him at least one more Group One. Another Wil should start very short in the Toorak. Storm Boy is the clear #1 Golden Rose seed (again) and anything Autumn Glow is doing short of a mile is a bonus.
