3 minute read

The first Saturday of the season saw some interesting results as Spring beckons.

Horrifying Pace

Berkshire Breeze was turned over at $1.45 in the staying feature, seemingly having every chance when leading and dictating. Horrifying has sat outside the leader and really controlled the tempo, which was very slow.

The time figure at Racing & Sports comes out at just 73. For comparison, Berkshire Breeze's wins in the two starts prior at Flemington (over 2600m and 2520m) clocked in at 96 and 90. Still relatively slow for the class of horse, but nothing like what we saw on Saturday.

A look at the splits against the day highlights the race shape and how they've jogged until the 600m mark and then been asked to increase their speed rapidly.

Horrifying has run a 10.84 split between the 600-400m, the 16th fastest of the card, and that is likely something Berkshire Breeze simply cannot do.

In Berkshire Breeze's last four starts, his quickest 200m split comes in at 11.14, on a track that was a fair bit firmer than Saturday, where he's run an overall time approximately 24.4 lengths slower than standard.

I'm not saying he wasn't disappointing, because he was, and has regressed his rating, but I think he's just gone far too slowly and been asked to sprint far too quickly to show anything like his best.

In terms of the rating, Horrifying has run to 109 on the R&S scale, up from his 107 rating two back as a 50-1 chance. Both of those have been consecutive career peaks for him on that scale. Hat tip to Lindsey Smith.

Berkshire Breeze has run 104, which is 7 pounds down on his 111 rating prior. His past two starts have earned him a Timeform + symbol, suggesting he's finishing full of running. The solution to realise that potential was to go faster early, not slower!

I wouldn't read too much into this for the favourite. Anything you thought of him before as a stayer probably remains true. An excellent Bart Cummings chance, and more likely a 4th-8th Melbourne Cup chance, rather than a top three chance.

Party Time

Right To Party started her four-year-old season the same way she finished her three-year-old one, winning down the straight with a sharp turn of foot off an even tempo, taking out the Group 3 Aurie's Star Handicap (1200m).

Her last 200m was comfortably the fastest of the day to defeat some handy straight track sprinters, running a new career peak in the process, coming in at 113 on the R&S scale.

That's not a bad rating compared to the past ten years of Aurie's Star winners, sitting ahead of the past three winners, two of which were in this race.

Last year It'sourtime ran 111 to win. He's run third this year, coming in at 106.

In 2021, The Astrologist won with a rating of 112. He's finished fourth here running 105.

Right To Party edged those older sprinters and Sirius Suspect, who ran 112 in 2022.

She sits behind Home Of The Brave (115) in 2020, So Si Bon and Hey Doc (116) and Voodoo Lad (118) who tops the list. Decent company.

She's clearly loving the straight and I see no reason why she wouldn't be competitive in races like the Bobbie Lewis and Gilgai over the straight six.