3 minute read

All the ratings from Flemington & Randwick where some Spring majors became clearer.

Via Sistina – back to best

Via Sistina bounced back with a bang to take out the Turnbull Stakes, running to 123 on the R&S scale.

That's an equal career peak for her, and a slight new peak for her Australian form. She also ran to 123 on the same scale when second to King Of Steel in the British Champion Stakes this time last year.

She ran to 121 in her Ranvet Stakes win first-up in Australia, although the sectionals there suggested she was right up around that 123 peak rating, and even on Saturday she's ripped home in sustained big splits.

Her finishing speed was 106.5% which is very inefficient once more- the pace was solid but she was still a long way off them. A horse like Duke De Sessa was well ridden in front, as was Eliyass, but Via Sistina and Buckaroo are far superior to that pair.

It's not an exact science, but if you took Via Sistina or Buckaroo's sectionals and marked them up based on how inefficiently they've run their race, they're lengths ahead of Eliyass, and that will be key moving towards a Caulfield Cup.

Via Sistina goes to a Cox Plate, and I think she'd need to improve again to be winning. A rating of 123 is on the low end of the Cox Plate winning spectrum.

Only Pinker Pinker (122) has rated lower to win the race this century, while Makybe Diva, Sir Dragonet and Fields Of Omagh (x2) all ran to 123 on the same scale to win a Cox Plate.

Romantic Warrior, Anamoe and State Of Rest have all run to 125 in the past three years to win, and this year we have Pride Of Jenni and Prognosis both capable of running 129.

Via Sistina can win the Cox Plate, sure, but I think she'll start around $10 on the day.

Buckaroo was outstanding in second. He's run to the same R&S rating of 122 that he did when winning the Underwood which will see him hardest to beat in the Caulfield Cup with 54.5kg.

Horses to have won the Caulfield Cup with 54-55kg since 2000 (of which there are five) have rated between 125 and 120, and with this year's edition looking on the weak side, he's clearly the horse to beat.

Eliyass was good, but got a much better ride sectionally and meets Buckaroo at the same weights in the Caulfield Cup which will make it tough.

The Metropolitan

Speaking of the Caulfield Cup, the quinella in The Metropolitan have put themselves right in contention, coming away from the rest with Land Legend narrowly getting the spoils from Zardozi.

By Timeform's measure, which is more reactive to weights, which I think is fair in this scenario, Zardozi rates on top, coming in at 117, as she was carrying 3kg more relative to weight-for-age compared to Land Legend.

If Land Legend were to get a 1kg penalty for winning The Metropolitan, which is fairly likely, Zardozi would be well fancied to turn the tables next time out.

On the R&S scale, the winner has run to 115, seven pounds below what Buckaroo has run in the Turnbull, but he'd likely get into a Caulfield Cup with 1.5kg less which gives him some hope.

That said, the Turnbull looks the superior form line which isn't surprising, and I've got no issue at all with Buckaroo going to 2400m- if anything I think he's looking for it.

Land Legend looks more like a Melbourne Cup horse to me, but the winning standard won't get any easier going to Flemington.