3 minute read

All the ratings recapped from Saturday’s racing.

Mornington vs Missile

Mornington Glory was well backed late and duly saluted in the benchmark 100 sprint, punters happy to ignore the biased track first up behind Recommendation, running to a Timeform rating of 110 in his 3.8 length win.

That's a new career peak for him, up from his 107 rating when third in the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate (1100m) with 52kg.

The 110 rating is backed up by a very good speed figure, giving plenty of confidence to the peak rating, and puts him firmly in the mix for some lower level Group sprints.

We have Recommendation rated 116 off his peak Timeform rating, and 112 last start in the Bletchingly Stakes, so still a touch ahead of Mornington Glory, but a much better rematch beckons.

Interestingly, the Group 2 Missile Stakes (1200m) was won with the exact same Timeform rating, with the resuming Schwarz also running to 110 in his narrow win.

That's an equal career peak for Schwarz, also achieved when winning the Group 3 Hawkesbury Guineas (1400m).

It certainly wasn't a vintage Missile, but the horses with a bit of upside have at least shown up, giving some hope to the race.

Second-placed Arctic Glamour has run a slight new peak of 104 with Timeform, up from 103 which she's run twice- in the Group 1 Thousand Guineas (1600m) and the Group 2 Emancipation Stakes (1500m).

In terms of Missile winners historically, Schwarz is on the lower end. Looking at the past ten years, only Phobetor (109), Hard Empire (109) and Tycoon Tara (108) have rated lower to win the race.

Pierata holds the highest winning rating in that time at 119 ahead of Eduardo at 117. The quality and depth of our sprinters at the moment is certainly thinner compared to a few years ago.

Schwarz and Arctic Glamour should both be better over a touch further and have come back well, but I wouldn't think either are going to be winning a Group 1 or a Golden Eagle.

Three-Year-Olds

Blue Stratum backed up a soft maiden win to take out the three-year-old open sprint, managing to reach triple figures with Timeform, coming in at 100.

That actually matches his peak, which was on debut as a two-year-old in the Group 3 Maribyrnong Plate (1000m).

The idea was floated post-race that he could back up in Saturday's Group 3 Vain Stakes (1100m) at Caulfield, the traditional kick off for male sprinting three-year-olds.

A rating of 100 almost certainly won't win a Vain Stakes, with just one winner in the past ten years not managing to crack that mark – Gold Symphony in 2015 (99).

The best rating in that period was Bivouac at a whopping 119. That's an outlier, with the next best winner Ingratiating at 110. The past two winners both ended up as Group 1 winners, with Cylinder (107) and Giga Kick (106) taking the Vain en route.

I'd be leaning towards different form for the Vain, with High Octane (rated 107) and Stay Focused (112) both nominated.