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Welcome to Betfair’s US Election betting page, where you can find insights and analysis from the Betfair Political Analyst. As the 2024 US Presidential Election draws nearer, the Betfair Political Analyst will be sharing their expertise and recommending betting strategies that are worth following. With a wealth of knowledge and experience in the world of politics and betting, the Betfair Political Analyst will provide you with the latest trends, polls, and news to help inform your decisions when placing your bets on the election. Keep reading for the latest updates and recommendations.
THIS WEEK'S MARKET MOVES
Donald Trump has firmed quite significantly this week from $2.05 into $1.96 into $1.90 and now $1.83!
Kamala Harris has drifted from $2.02 out to $2.06, $2.14 and now $2.24.
7 key states to follow re swings are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin
Republicans are favoured to win 4 with another 2 at even money.
BETFAIR ELECTION UPDATE (OCTOBER 14)
Presidential State Polling
The 2024 election will be determined by the 90 electoral votes across seven key battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Arizona is polling very much in favour of Trump with Trump winning the head-to-head and chopping out in favourability ratings compared to a -5 net favourability for Harris.
Pennsylvania sees Harris ahead in a most recent phone poll and with Democrats performing well down the ticket, the sandbagging efforts of the Democrats in the rust-belt state appear to be working. The Democrats are minor outsiders to win the state – something that will not last.
Republicans are favoured to win Georgia and North Carolina, suggesting Trump's strength down South will hold. Trump has only recently snuck ahead in North Carolina. North Carolina is a must-win for Trump if he has any hopes of re-entering the White House. Demographics in North Carolina have shifted though and given the problems down the ticket, the value is with the Democrats. Trump's lead in Georgia of approximately five points is likely too large to overcome.
Democrats are ahead in betting Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin with the Democrats' effort in rust belt states helping Harris. There is concern in Michigan that the initial enthusiasm following the switch to Harris with the Guardian reporting that Harris support was "waning" in the face of a Trump base that is indefatigable. Both have been piling in time and resources to the state but it is Trump's message, no matter how fairytale, that he will re-open heavy industry factories with dog-whistles that white men are being punished resonating more. Trump as an underdog has to be the bet in Michigan.
Recommended State Bets
- Back Democrats to Win Pennsylvania at $1.65 or Better
- Back Democrats to Win North Carolina at $2.20 or Better
- Back Republicans to Win Michigan at $1.72 or Better
Senate Races
Republicans will almost certainly take control of the Senate but it is not going be the red-wash they hoped with some internal polling from leading Republican PAC the Senate Leadership Fund showing the GOP trailing in some key states.
Hopeful open seat gains in Michigan and Maryland are all but dashed while Arizona is expected to be won by the Democrats. Donald Trump won Ohio in 2020 but Senator Sherrod Brown is polling exceptionally well and is expected to retain.
The good news for the Republican Party with Montana expected to be picked up by the GOP.
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have tightened up with incumbent Democrats holding marginal leads. The Democrats hold a significant fundraising advantage and that will help veteran senator Bob Casey in Pennsylvania, in particular.
Of bigger concern for the Republicans is Texas, where well-known senator Ted Cruz is clinging to a slim lead. The Democrats are well worth having a speck on.
Recommended Senate Bets
- Back Democrats to Win Ohio at $1.45 or Better
- Back Republicans to Win Montana at $1.40 or Better
- Back Democrats to Win Pennsylvania at $1.30 or Better
- Back Democrats to Win Texas at $2.60 or Better
Betting Strategy
BACK: Democrats to Win Pennsylvania @ $1.65 or better
Harris has worked hard and spent hard in Pennsylvania and is well helped by having Tim Walz as her running mate.
BACK: Democrats to Win North Carolina @ $2.20 or better
The gap in polling from black voters continues to widen in Harris' favour making Nevada a great bet to go Democrat.
Donald Trump received 46.09% when he won in 2016 and 46.8% last time out. He looks set to strike around the same again.
Back Democrats to Win Ohio at $1.45 or Better
Back Republicans to Win Montana at $1.40 or Better
Back Democrats to Win Pennsylvania at $1.30 or Better
Back Democrats to Win Texas at $2.60 or Better
US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2024
US Election Betting: Understanding the Odds and Tips
The United States' presidential election is one of the most significant political events in the world. Every four years, millions of people from around the globe tune in to watch the process unfold. But it's not just about politics; it's also about betting. With so much at stake, US Election Betting is becoming increasingly popular. In this article, we will discuss everything you need to know about US Election Betting, including the odds, tips, and a brief history of each of the top candidates: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, and Kamala Harris.
Understanding US Election Betting on Betfair
US Election Betting with Betfair is a type of political betting that allows people to place bets on who they believe will win the presidential election. Not only this, but bettors can also place wagers on the winning political party, the popular vote winner, party of the popular vote winner, gender of election winner, who the Democratic & Republican nominee will be for President & Vice President, and if Ron DeSantis will run in 2024.
A Brief History of the Top Candidates
Joe Biden: Joe Biden is the current President of the United States and served as Vice President under Barack Obama. Biden was a senator for Delaware for over 30 years and has a long history of public service. In 2020, Biden won the Democratic nomination for President and went on to defeat incumbent Donald Trump in the general election.
Donald Trump: Donald Trump is a businessman and former television personality who served as the 45th President of the United States from 2017 to 2021. Trump was the Republican nominee for President in 2016 and won the election, defeating Hillary Clinton. Trump is known for his controversial policies and actions while in office, including his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and his impeachment by the House of Representatives in 2019.
Ron DeSantis: Ron DeSantis is the current Governor of Florida and a rising candidate in the Republican Party. DeSantis served in the US House of Representatives from 2013 to 2018 and was elected Governor of Florida in 2018. DeSantis is known for his conservative policies and close relationship with former President Trump.
Kamala Harris: Kamala Harris is the current Vice President of the United States and the first woman, person of colour, and person of South Asian descent to hold the position. Harris served as Attorney General of California from 2011 to 2017 and was elected to the US Senate in 2016. In 2020, she was selected as Joe Biden's running mate and was elected Vice President.
Why Betfair is the Best Wagering Platform for the 2024 US Presidential Election
Betfair is a leading online betting Exchange that allows users to bet against each other on sporting events, political outcomes, and more. With over 20 years of experience in the industry, Betfair has earned a reputation as the most reliable and trustworthy platform for sports and political betting.
One of the reasons Betfair is the best wagering platform for the 2024 US Presidential Election is its competitive odds. The platform offers some of the best odds in the industry, which can significantly increase your potential winnings.
Another reason to choose Betfair is its user-friendly platform. The website is easy to navigate, and placing bets is simple and straightforward. Additionally, Betfair offers a mobile app, allowing users to place bets from anywhere at any time.
Betfair also offers a wide range of US Election Betting markets, including the winner of the presidential election, the winning political party, and who the Democratic & Republican nominee will be. With so many options, you can find the market that best suits your betting strategy.
Conclusion
Betfair is here to provide the punter with the latest and most reliable information regarding the 2024 US Presidential Election. Our US Politics expert is an industry leader in politics wagering, with a wealth of knowledge for the US Political system. If you're looking to place a bet on the 2024 US Election, then there really is no other place to go than the Betfair Exchange. The peer-to-peer betting platform means you get the best odds the market has to offer, and if you're unsure on who to bet on, or how to find value in the market where others can't, then head to the Betfair Hub today and take advantage of our US political expert's tips and predictions.
Check out more of Betfair's election content on the Betfair Hub.
