3 minute read

This Saturday has a proper Spring feel to it with a trio of Group races.

The first Group 1 of the season is next week in Sydney and just two weeks away in Melbourne but P B Lawrence Stakes day feels like the unofficial Spring kick off.

The feature races themselves are a bit thin, especially the Group 3 Vain Stakes (1100m) which has come up about as strong as a midweek open handicap, but the Quezette is good.

The Group 2 P B Lawrence Stakes (1400m) is lacking that star power of a Mr Brightside or similar so it's a bit of the 'usual suspects', none more so than Buffalo River, who we're going to make the each-way play.

He almost exclusively raced over the Caulfield 1400m last preparation, with 10 of his past 12 starts over his favourite route. Of those 10 races, he's run a median rating of 108 on the R&S scale, with a peaks of 115.

Narrow that further to races in his last campaign, he's run ratings of 109, 115, 114 and 104, with another 115 in the All-Star Mile also in there for good measure.

That's good enough to just about win this race. Pericles is the highest rated at 117, a number he's run a few times, including in the Futurity over this route earlier in the year, second to Mr Brightside there with Buffalo River in third.

Here, you're getting the same place odds for the Buffalo as you are Pericles to win, and I feel Buffalo River will be more wound up to win here, with three jump outs under the belt, a prime opportunity to win a Group 2 over his favourite route in a race lacking a genuine Group 1 horse.

He should jump to the front, roll along and prove awfully hard to catch at double figures.

The best of the day comes up one race earlier in the Listed Regal Roller Stakes (1200m) where the resuming (gelded) Arkansaw Kid looks nicely placed down in the weights.

First up last campaign he was second, best of the rest, to star filly Estriella at Flemington, running to 109 with R&S, and was last seen beaten 2.5 lengths by Benedetta in the Group 1 The Goodwood (1200m) in Adelaide.

I can't have Maotai as favourite here. The first up win was good and he is with a new camp but he always regresses second up and regardless, that win only has him in the mix here, not favourite.

Arkansaw Kid brings proper Group form to this, has jumped out well, maps well and has the ratings to win.

The bet365 Melbourne Mail

Bet of the day: Race 7 #8 Arkansaw Kid at $4.80 with bet365*

Each-way play: Race 8 #4 Buffalo River at $12 and $3.80 with bet365*

*Odds correct at 10:45am, 15/8/24

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