3 minute read
Racing lost one of its finest men this week in Guy Walter, who just a week ago was at Doomben saddling up his 36th Group 1 winner.
Streama was too good in the Doomben Cup, becoming just the second mare in 64 years to win the race.
If anyone was capable of bucking such a historically significant trend it was going to be Guy. He’ll be remembered as a superb trainer and an even better gentlemen, and the racing industry will be mourning his loss for many years to come.
The show has to go on though, and it looks another ripping program at Doomben.
Buffering is out (again) to win a home-town Group 1 after a well below-par performance in the BTC Cup when he could only manage third to Famous Seamus.
Trainer Robert Heathcote has since admitted the horse was still recovering from his TJ Smith run in Sydney behind Lankan Rupee, and expects a much better showing here.
His record in this race is very good, with a third placing to Epaulette last year when they went mad out in front following a narrow second placing to Sea Siren in 2012.
I’m happy to stay with him, especially around the $4 mark although Rebel Dane and Spirit Of Boom will be coming late on.
Earlier in the day we get another look at the two-year-olds in the Sires’ Produce Stakes (1350m), and it’s very hard to see Chris Waller’s Brazen Beau getting beaten here.
He looked a class above winning the Champagne Classic (1200m) here two weeks back and looked to have plenty left to give through the line.
Nash Rawiller stays aboard and Waller has proven very shrewd when placing his late-season two-year-olds up here.
His biggest danger is Mick Price’s untapped colt Pressing up from Melbourne after winning his first couple at Caulfield.
He’ll need to improve a fair way to be beating Brazen Beau though, and he might well be better suited over the 1600m of the JJ Atkins at Eagle Farm.
Aimee also has to be respected coming into this having won her last four, but this is her toughest test to date and I don’t think she’s quite up to Brazen Beau.
Take the $2.20 now, he’ll probably jump as an odds-on shot.
I’m pretty keen on one of the New Zealanders in Race 4, the Lord Mayor’s Cup over 1615m.
Historian comes across for the Alton stable in a weight-for-age race and rates well clear of these on his best form.
The beauty of it all is he’s still rolling around at around the $4.50 mark, due to Wistful’s form around Leebaz which has her at the top of the market.
Granted she was good in the Hawkesbury Gold Cup three weeks back finishing within a length of Leebaz, who ran second to Streama in the Doomben Cup last weekend, but is that strong enough to beat Historian?
He’s a multiple Group 1 winner, one of which came over this trip, and if he’s ready to rumble today he should prove too classy.
That’s the risk, heading into this race off an eight-week freshen up, but he still looks a class above these.
The $4.50 looks a bit too inflated for mine, and I’m more than happy to jump on board.
There’s one I’m keen to take on earlier in the day that may well jump at even money.
Agitate goes around in a three-year-old handicap over 1200m and he’s very short after beating home Havana in the Mick Dittman Plate (1100m).
At first glance the form looks terrific after Havana came out last week and won the Group 3 Fred Best Classic last week.
But I don’t think that’s as strong as it seems.
On our numbers Havana ran 16 pounds below form in the Mick Dittman, and then came out and ran a new peak to win the Fred Best Classic.
That equated to a 22-pound difference in performance, or roughly an improvement of six lengths.
Which takes us back to Agitate. There’s no denying he’s a very speedy horse who is well in the mix at this level, but his odds look a bit prohibitive especially out to this trip.
He’s been over the journey three times for a narrow win as a two-year-old, and two unplaced efforts in easier races than this.
With Le Val back in good order, Whiskey Allround back in grade and Architect in reasonable form, this is no cakewalk.
I’m staying well away from the $2.30 on offer in this.
BANKER: Race 6 No 2 Brazen Beau @ $2.20
BET OF THE DAY: Race 4 No 1 Historian @ $4.50
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 2 No 1 Agitate @ $2.30
