3 minute read

Actuarial science is applying mathematics to assess and manage risk. In effect, it is punting.

When doing the form we measure the form of each of the runners in a field, weight them up against each other, apply a few statistics, and assess what risks are worth taking.

Conventional wisdom seems to be that it is a great test for the the younger horses to take on their elders, but over the course of our actuarial study of the formguide one thing we are sure to notice is that the three-year-olds tend to win more than their share of races against older horses.

It's a statistic well worth keeping in mind and one that will point actuaries of the form guide towards Actuariat at Flemington.

The Open/BM90 Handicaps at Flemington on Saturday are full of exposed off-season handicappers. The average days between wins for runners in those races is the best part of a year - 357.5 days.

Reasons for three-year-olds winning more than their share are fairly clear. Most three-year-olds will be improving and it is improving that wins handicaps. Actuariat is improving. His rivals in the eighth at Flemington are not.

Actuariat comes off a strong three-year-old handicap last time where he ran third against fellow improving three-year-olds. Taking on the older, exposed horses now should be a piece of cake.

Actuarial science is all about risk management and so of course this is all price dependant. Applying some mathematics to Timeform ratings and we come up with Actuariat's chances of success being that of a $2.50 chance.

At around $3.50 in early markets Actuariat is a risk well worth taking.

Last week's Finals Day meeting probably ensured that there wouldn't be much depth to the racing this week, and that makes an each-way play a slightly tougher task.

Race 6 isn't lacking for interest, though, with a few handy horses stepping out, headed up by Supido.

He's a good talent but there's an each-way play away from him here with Lord Esprit available to back at $6.00 (that counts as each-way, right?).

Lord Esprit couldn't gun down the handy Rough Justice last time but he did close him down to half a length on the line and he can come on for that. He was an above average maiden winner before a break and he should run a big race here.

THE MELBOURNE MAIL

Bet of the day: Race 8 #12 Actuariat @ $3.50

Each way play: Race 6 #6 Lord Esprit @ $6.00