3 minute read
On a huge weekend in Melbourne, The Mail is casting it's eye over to Sunday and the Turnbull Stakes meeting.
The Bart Cummings is more significant this year; both the passing of the great trainer and the prize of a ticket in to the race that he made his own ensuring that is the case.
No doubt Bart is the Melbourne Cup's most famous figure but Lloyd Williams is another who has made chasing the race that stops a nation his obsession and with great success.
This weekend he steps out several of his key spring hopefuls with his runner in the Bart Cummings, Foundry, one of the most interesting as he tries to book his spot on the first Tuesday in November.
A Foundry is a factory that makes metal castings by pouring metal into a mould - ironic (maybe?) given that Foundry arrives at Flemington on Sunday in the same mould as many of Lloyd's past spring contenders.
Perhaps the mould that Foundry fits best is that of Seville. A lot more of Seville had been seen in Europe than had been of Foundry but both came to Australia off smart performances in York's Great Voltiguer and Doncaster's St Leger.
Both looked good in short autumn campaigns before both had their first Melbourne Spring campaign's cut short.
Spring Carnival number two made a slow start for Seville off a lengthy spell but when he stepped out past 2000m for the first time in Australia he peaked, winning the Metropolitan in Sydney.
Foundry was okay fresh and improved to run a nice race in Sydney second up. Now he goes past 2000m for the first time down under and the stats point to him posting a big performance, for it is not just Seville's mould that Foundry fits, it's that of his stable.
Since Robert Hickmott took over Lloyd's yard they have sent out 214 runners stepping up in trip by more than 200m, striking at 22% and returning punters a profit on turnover of +36.9%.
Third up from a spell is a hot spot for the stable as well, striking at 24% over the journey, up from 15% first up and 20% second up - they improve with racing.
The last couple of seasons have been relatively lean for the yard but the signs at the start of 2015/16 are positive, and if we track back a couple of seasons to when the yard were flying we can see just how potent they can be third up.
In 2012/13 the stable struck at 44% third up and returned a POT of +37.2%. Thirteen runners went up 400m or more for 5 winners and a POT of +200%.
Foundry finds himself in this spot - a spot that has beaten the market in the past and given the start they have made to this season (striking 2.9 times ahead of where they were last season) we should be taking keen notice of them again.
The Bart Cummings has good depth from afar, but digging deeper there are knocks on most, and Foundry looks to have a true favourite's chance. In Racing And Sports' view value still lies in the $2.80 available.
The weekends best each way play comes in it's final race.
Ulmann made a slashing return at Caulfield in a steadily run race. His closing speed pointed to him being far better than the bare result on the day and his form at the back of last preparation suggested he was a horse on the rise.
$7.50 looks to undersell his chances on Sunday where the step up to 1400m looks a big plus and an inside draw can afford him a soft run under Glen Boss. He can wind up and explode when the gaps come. His booming finish likely to have him hitting the line best of all here.
THE MELBOURNE MAIL
Bet Of The Day: Flemington Race 6 #5 Foundry @ $2.80
Each Way Play: Flemington Race 9 #12 Ulmann @ $7.50
