3 minute read

"Winners keep winning and losers keeping losing," an old racing adage we can put to the test in the fourth event at Belmont on Saturday.

The Simon Miller trained First Among Equals is unbeaten in two starts this time in and overall has won 10 of 19.

The Chris Gangemi trained Rock Magic hasn't won in five starts (298 days) and overall has won 10 of 31.

No question a good record in itself however when not a great deal separates the two in the market, it helps swing the race firmly in First Among Equals' favour.

Admittedly the current market does somewhat reflects this — $2.00 > $3.50 (22% difference), however we feel there is a greater gap between the two.

The above suggests for every 10 races, First Among Equals will win five while Rock Magic will win two, leaving three races to the remainder of the field.

Given two of the remaining seven (Bass Strait and Akhedasset) are borderline 200-1 chances, it theoretically leaves three races to be split between Ihtsahymn, Mr Utopia, Red Ora, Checkpoint and Proceedwithcaution.

As a result we feel there is more room to move at the top end with First Among Equals closer to a $1.70 chance (59%).

Leaving our current market as below (100%):

$1.70 - First Among Equals

$5.50 - Rock Magic

$10 - Red Ora

$20 - Ihtsahymn, Proceedwithcaution

$50 - Checkpoint

$200 - Bass Strait, Akhedasset

If this race was to be run 100 times the above market would predict (total wins):

First Among Equals - 59

Rock Magic - 18

Red Ora - 10

Ihtsahymn - 5

Proceedwithcaution - 5

Checkpoint - 2

Bass Strait - 0.5

Akhedasset - 0.5

From the good draw he looks to receive all the favours and if able to replicate his Belmont Newmarket performance he appears a very likely winner - 59% to be exact.

In the sixth event the Jim Taylor trained Recoiled appears set to peak and should prove hard to beat racing third up.

Only lightly raced the son of Demerit has displayed good ability and gets his chance to return to the winner's stall over 1000m.

A game effort behind Three Votes last start leaves him well placed and a repeat of that level of performance should see him right in the finish.

Currently installed a $4.60 chance appears a more than worthy gamble as we have marked closer to a 5-2 chance.

From the middle draw he should land into a lovely spot and is expected to be very hard to beat.

As a side note, TopBetta will continue its Skin Series on Saturday ($50K Total Prize Pool) and while Belmont won't play a part it is definitely worth checking out - Click Here .

BET OF THE DAY (1): Race 4 #3 First Among Equals @ $2.00

BET OF THE DAY (2): Race 6 #8 Recoiled @ $4.60