3 minute read
For the second year, the Flemington Cup is run in honour of Deane Lester, a great punter and pundit who was for many the voice of racing and reason in Melbourne for as long as we can remember.
Words from last year's Flemington Cup edition of the Melbourne Mail hold true for 2024: "Few in the game are as well respected as Lester and with good reason. Few form analysts are as rounded, measured or, put simply, as good as Lester.
To back the winner of the race run in his honour is a now annual mission. We should do so by channeling a bit of the inner Deano that all good punters have. Lester had a broad understanding of the complex variables that make up a horse race but, further to that, he had a wonderful knack of bringing that complexity together into a simple, well-articulated, solution. He didn't need to appear clever as he was clever."
We then piled in to Mostly Cloudy, a horse that arrived off a strong-finishing third behind Fawkner Park and has since run second as a 5/4 shot in a Brisbane Cup, but he was beaten into second fair-and-square my Mimi's Award. It's a trying game.
The year prior we backed Through Irish Eyes. He also ran second after slipping the winner too much rope in a farcically run race. It really is a trying game.
Einstein told us that doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result is the definition of insanity and with those wise words completely ignored we are throwing up the Flemington Cup favourite yet again.
This year that honour falls to Speycaster who brings a very similar look (if a slightly weaker one) to the one that Mostly Cloudy brought last year having run in Sydney last time out and produced the right sort of rating to be winning the Cup.
Speycaster's Rosehill win was a career best effort and one that he had been threatening to produce all campaign, the writing really going on the wall with some sharp splits from a hopeless spot at Canterbury second up.
Two nice wins followed before he looked to lose his flow in a couple but he was back in business; the rating he produced there is a match for anything he is likely to face today and he shapes as though the trip could bring about a better performance yet.
The temptation is to ignore this simple solution and hunt for something clever - Einstein would have turned his back on the favourite now - but we prefer the wisdom of Deano and that leads us into Speycaster.
The Flemington Cup is the feature in the book but, as mentioned, it probably isn't the race that will take the most winning with the race that follows in line for that honour.
Given that it shapes as the race of the day, landing on one that has won just once in 18 starts - that win coming some 777 days and 15 runs ago - and who ran second last in his most recent appearance may have both Einstein and Lester looking down somewhat puzzled... But Political Debate is where we land with $15.00 too big all things considered.
One of all of those things that can be considered is where Political Debate lands in the run. In a poor spot, has been the general rule with him, but Jamie Kah, a middle draw, and plenty of slow ones, gives him his chance.
If you filter his form for runs where Political Debate has settled in front of more than two horses he has only once (on debut) returned a rating below 100 and most recently ran to 107 behind the aforementioned Caulfield Cup hopeful Fawkner Park at Wagga. That can win here, and would win more often than his current price suggests.
THE MELBOURNE MAIL
Bet Of The Day: Race 7 #3 Speycaster @ $3.20
Each Way Play: Race 8 #12 Political Debate @ $15.00
