3 minute read

Underwood Stakes day at Caulfield with plenty of attractive bets to be had.

Pretty keen to play at healthy odds this week with two bets really standing out.

The first comes up in Race 6 where Commemorative looks beautifully placed with a run under the belt and back to benchmark grade.

She resumed in the Group 3 Toy Show Quality (1100m) at Randwick and probably should've won, given a negative steer and left with too much running to do late, unable to reel in Kimochi.

Timeform has her running to 102+ there, the sectionals and finishing speed % giving her a strong markup to suggest she was an unlucky loser. There's been good form out of the Toy Show with Mumbai Muse, who was just behind Commemorative, improving big time to run second to Sunshine In Paris in the Sheraco last week.

Commemorative only rises 1.5kg here coming back to a benchmark 100, and on her last start raw rating, not taking into account she could've gone at least a few pounds better, she's already the one to beat.

I can't have Jimmysstar so short in betting, and he has started to drift. His form is over 1400-1600m and I can't see him having the turn of foot to win over 1100m.

The wide draw is ideal for the big filly and Kah just needs to be proactive early in the race to settle in front of a few and if she's within striking distance, she should win. I can mark her $3 comfortably and we're getting $4.

The other bet I'm keen to have comes up in the following race where Immediacy looks very nicely placed in the Group 3 Mrc Foundation Cup (2000m).

It's typically a race for Cups horses to poke around in, and this year certainly has that feel again with most of these finishing within a length or two of each other in the Natualism first up.

Immediacy comes through the far better race, chasing Pericles first up at Moonee Valley over 1500m, carrying the full 59kg penalty as a Group 2 winner, and I loved his late work after getting a long way back.

He ran the fastest last 400/200m of the race and now drops 5kg under the Quality conditions, getting in on the minimum.

At the weights, his last start rating is the best in the field by four pounds, and from the ideal gate out to 2000m here, I think he can find a much better position against a few that probably still want further and don't have as much intent.

I think he should be favourite an the $6 on offer looks very attractive.

THE MELBOURNE MAIL

Bet of the day: Race 6 #11 Commemorative at $4.00

Also backing: Race 7 #16 Immediacy at $6.00