3 minute read
Scott Embry provides his best bets for the Thoroughbred meeting at Belmont on Saturday, 18th May 2024. Brought to you by the TABtouch Blog.
RACE 1
ARNIE'S BOY has found a lovely race. Two starts back he won an identical race – Westspeed 1600 – and since then he has finished second splitting Allez Allez (subsequent winner) and Lord Gannicus (since 66+ placed). Goes better at Belmont than he does at Ascot and can roll forward or sustain a run from the back. Hard to knock. MACK MACK is enigmatic and can mix his form. Think he needs the mile at this stage of his career. EMERALD TRADER is just as quirky but he's stepping much cleaner and he's got more ability than most of these. LOVA SESSION looked the winner on straightening first-up but couldn't quite finish off.
Numbers: 4 – 1 – 2 – 8
Suggested Bet – ARNIE'S BOY EACHWAY
RACE 2
RICHANCO steps into Saturday company for the first time in his life but has found a race without any natural speed which gives him the chance to roll to the top and control the tempo. When he lead on debut he skipped clear to win by over 3L and then last start he beat the older horses with 59.5kg when chasing a hot tempo. Think he'll measure up. BRAVE SPIRIT is bursting to win a race, can settle close handy and will really appreciate an extra 200m. The Twain's Angel form is hot. CHOLLIMA is a seriously talented filly but she's never carried more than 55.5kg in her life and she'll likely settle near last. KING'S SALUTE next best.
Numbers: 2 – 3 – 1 – 4
Suggested Bet – RICHANCO WIN
RACE 3 Best Bet
GOLDEN KATHLEEN should be too good for her opposition here. On paper there looks to be two dangers – Big Shots who she beat home in the WA Sires and meets 2kg better at the weights for beating him and Rainline who is a talented maiden but rises from 1100 to 1300 and has a wide draw. She has the Bustling form and the Siren Assault form and expect she's very popular in betting. Great race for her. BIG SHOTS chased hard in the Sires and was pulling late ground off Golden Kathleen, but meeting her 2kg worse for finishing 1.5L behind her is a big ask. RAINLINE has had a luckless start to her career. She's got genuine upside. SPICE IS RIGHT rolls forward.
Numbers: 3 – 1 – 7 – 2
Suggested Bet – GOLDEN KATHLEEN WIN
RACE 4
TOO DARDY hasn't been seen at the races since July 2023 so he is first-up off a lengthy spell, however, he's really classy and his recent 1000m trial at Belmont Park as electric. He's got speed to follow behind Miss Fliratious / King's Honour / Avoidance / Estimator and he's got a big turn of foot when saved up. Love the set up for him and think he's capable of going through the grades this campaign. Keen. MISS FLIRTACIOUS was stretched at 1200m last start but fought on bravely behind sharp 3 year olds Twain's Angel and Brave Spirit. KINGS HONOUR took a sit last start and showed a turn of foot when the gaps appeared on straightening. CELEBRITY PRINCE trialled like a bomb.
Numbers: 4 – 9 – 7 – 2
Suggested Bet – TOO DARDY WIN
RACE 5
GENEROSITY finally looks to have found her race this campaign. First-up over 1000m she got a long way off them and rattled to the line, second-up she got shuffled back to an awkward position on straightening and then savaged the line through heavy traffic and now third-up she gets to Belmont Park (only win at Belmont) and gets out to 1300m. Back from a 66+ into a Graduation and expect the Rope Them In form to hold up. BECALOTTI is backing up off 7 days and can again lead or box seat. Trying hard. PLAYZ WITH FIRE didn't fire fresh but can bounce back. PREMIUM GIRL is a talented filly but hasn't raced for 8 weeks.
Numbers: 2 – 4 – 5 – 6
Suggested Bet – GENEROSITY WIN
RACE 6
SOWAR was travelling strongly into the home corner last week over 1800m and just had to wait for a run to appear. Got out late and attacked the line strongly and 7 days later finds himself in a very evenly graded 2100 where it'll likely come down to who gets the best run in transit. Capable of measuring up. FAT ROY SLIM got himself out of trouble last start with a better change of speed than most probably believed he possessed. Looking for three on the bounce and Pike sticks – likely to be very popular again. LET'SDEAL is better suited drawing wide and going better than numerical form suggests. TALLANGATTA will again look to control and kick hard into the corner.
Numbers: 4 – 5 – 1 – 7
Suggested Bet – SOWAR EACHWAY
RACE 7
ROPE THEM IN is an emerging 3 year old with plenty of raw ability and improvement still to come. He was able to take full advantage of a favourable barrier draw last start and landed a really confident betting move ($5.50 into $2.65). Expect he enjoys a similar run in transit here from barrier 2 and while this is one of the deepest and most competitive 66+ 1400s you'll see he is more than capable of taking it up to the older horses again. TRIPLE JAY broke through last start and is a proven weight carrier. MALKAR PINDARI was lengths off her best last start. SAN FABRIZIO trialled super recently.
Numbers: 6 – 2 – 4 – 7
Suggested Bet – ROPE THEM IN WIN
RACE 8
WESTERN EMPIRE has returned to WA in a blaze of glory. His run in the Joey was outstanding and then he was backed as if unbeatable in the Northam Stakes and duly saluted. He rises up 4kg going from SWP to WFA but regardless of the weight swings it's hard to see anything from that race turning the tables on him. He could conceivably complete a clean sweep of the winter features if he continues to produce. MAGNIFICENT ANDY proved himself at WFA in the Joey and meets Western Empire 3.5kg better for being beaten 3.5L in the Northam Stakes. He looks the clear value at $18. ALSEPHINA ran second in a Railway Stakes yet opened double figures. SEARCHIN' ROC'S hasn't drawn a gate in a long time.
Numbers: 2 – 9 – 12 – 13
Suggested Bet – WESTERN EMPIRE WIN
Same Race Multi – Western Empire (Win) + Magnificent Andy (Top 4)
Western Empire put the writing on the wall in the Joey and then produced an emphatic win in the Northam Stakes. He's back to somewhere near his best and that's a daunting prospect for all rivals across this winter WFA series. Magnificent Andy beat him in the Joey and then gets a big weight swing from the Northam Stakes – think he can run in the first four.
RACE 9
AMBER GLIDE has been perennially under-rated throughout her career. She's got a 50% winning strike rate after 12 starts yet goes around eachway week in, week out. Love the way she got to the line first-up without a trial and now drops 3kg second-up with added fitness. Think she can make a race of this with the right cart into it. KESHI BOOM is 4 from 4 undefeated and could well have her back in running. If she's going to be vulnerable it's probably first-up at the sprint trip but she's a serious talent with a massive L600. Shaping up as a cracking Raconteur / Belmont Guineas. SALOON BAR matched motors with Laced Up Heels under 60kg three back. POMPEY was enormous in the Joey.
Numbers: 8 – 10 – 2 – 3
Suggested Bet – AMBER GLIDE EACHWAY
Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)
1,2,3,4,5,7,14,15
2,4,5,6,7
2
2,3,7,8,10
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