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The first lady of racing Gai Waterhouse has declared that if her outstanding mare More Joyous runs in the $2m, Group 1 BMW Doncaster Mile at Randwick on Saturday that the mare wins the race.

TAB Sportsbet's market agrees with that assessment by Waterhouse with More Joyous firming into outright favouritism overnight after sharing the top line with Secret Admirer after the final field market opened on Tuesday.

More Joyous is now at $5.50 with Secret Admirer at $6.00 and Shoot Out at $8.00.

“Here she is, the champion NSW mare, the best middle distance mare, she has won two out of two in scintillating form and she is probably at the peak of her career, and she is thrown into the race, absolutely tossed into the race weight-wise.

“She is happy and she just looks sensational. She is a big strong mare and she will bounce out there and rock and roll.

“She is accepted and she is in the race and until I am told otherwise she is really the horse to beat,” she said.

Waterhouse has three runners in the race, More Joyous with 57.5kg, with stable number one rider Nash Rawiller, three-year-old colt Niagara with 52kg and Tommy Berry and Group 3 Doncaster Prelude winner Fast Clip, also with 52kg and Jim Cassidy.

The trainer said that she would imagine More Joyous racing just off the pace with Niagara, the winner of the Group 2 Ajax Stakes over 1500m at Rosehill on March 31st, on the pace along with Fast Clip who lead all the way in the Doncaster Prelude over 1600m at Randwick last Saturday.

Last year More Joyous raced in the Doncaster Mile when the track was also hit with heavy rain with a rating of a Heavy 10. Owner John Singleton has declared that he would not run the mare again in similar conditions.

Randwick has received 155mm of rain this week with the track a Heavy 9, but fine weather has returned to Sydney on Friday with warm and humid conditions. Without any further rainfall the track could reach the Slow range by Saturday.

More Joyous raced with 57kg last year and since then she has won twice at Group 2 level and the Group 1 Queen Of the Turf over 1500m at Rosehill in her last start.

The question for this undoubtedly superior race mare is two-fold. She comes up against an outstanding field of quality gallopers who are a level above her last three races, and can she handle the distance.

More Joyous has won twice over the distance in three starts at Randwick, but her last start over a longer distance was a fifth in So You Think's 2010 Group 1 WS Cox Plate over 2040m.

Waterhouse has outstanding form for the Doncaster Mile, and she knows that this most testing 1600m in the land needs a horse who can handle 1800m as well. More Joyous will be asked this question under extreme pressure on Saturday.

Ironically the second favourite Secret Admirer is under the same scrutiny. The four-year-old Grahame Begg trained mare has won twice over the Randwick 1600m at Group 1 level in the Flight Stakes and Epsom Handicap. She also has not won beyond the 1600m.

She does however carry 54kg to More Joyous with her 57.5kg and Rangirangdoo's top-weight of 58kg. The barrier of 22 should not prove to be too much of a problem considering the track and the likelihood of racing being wide out from the rail.

Another mare in the race, Hurtle Myrtle, also has Group 1 winning form over 1600m but at Flemington in the Myer Classic last spring. For the Matthew Smith trained five-year-old is her 53kg and Glyn Schofield's leading talent.

"She's in good shape. She's done really well since her last run and worked well," Smith said.

"She was a bit soft for her first-up run then her effort the other day was good. Damien (Oliver) was happy with her and felt that would bring her right at her peak so I was happy to hear that."

"Glyn came over and rode her on Tuesday and he was very happy with her," Smith said.

Oliver could not ride the mare at the weight and he rides Wall Street (NZ) at 54.5kg.

Then there is Shoot Out. Prepared by trainer Chris Waller for this race from the start of this BMW Sydney Carnival the quality High Chaparral five-year-old gelding has an better pull in the weights with 56.5kg than More Joyous.

Shoot Out has had an excellent campaign with Waller settling him at his correct distance which saw him win the Group 1 Chipping Norton Stakes over 1600m at Warwick Farm on March 10th, He was then third in the Group 1 Ranvet over 2000m at Rosehill on March 24th behind Manighar (FR) and stablemate Rangirangdoo (NZ).

Waller has not raced him since and with a trial over 800m at Warwick Farm on April 10th he will be ready and fresh for the task. Shoot Out has not won over 1800m at Randwick, but he has won over 2400m when taking out the 2010 AJC Australian Derby.

Older, rejuvenated, back to his distance but with the ability to extend he has drawn ideally in the middle at barrier 10 and Hugh Bowman maintains his regular partnership. The market looks ripe at his price.