3 minute read

Racing and Sports will provide analysis of games in the 2024 AFL Season.

We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.

GEELONG v BRISBANE

Saturday 21 September @ MCG

Not often a Prelim is played at a neutral venue but we get that here as Geelong come up the highway and face the Lions who came from the clouds.

Geelong was so impressive in walloping Port when they took their midfield highlight players out of action. Once that happened, the small forwards like Stengle, Miers and Close were able to get in behind them.

The raging bull Dangerfield realised he only had 3 games to fire rather than a whole season and put on the after-burners.

Then Jeremy Cameron did some remarkable things and it was a cakewalk. Boy the Lions defence will be stretched.

That backline was very much that last Saturday night as Jesse Hogan was tearing them apart. However a switch was flicked in the last quarter and the entire game turned.

You don't come back from 44 points down in many games – so many fewer times in Finals. That positive energy and belief could drive the Lions on here.

What will be hard to determine is would Geelong have such a weak mental state to cave in like GWS? Their finals experience helps there.

Tactic: Take Tom Stewart out of the mix in the way he influences most Geelong rebound. Maybe Rayner or Dunkley might have to forego their games for the good of the team.

The big stat for this clash is Brisbane's record at the MCG. In the last decade they have played 18 times there for 2 wins (both over Melbourne).

Obviously that includes the heartbreaking loss in the Grand Final last year and when Geelong carved them up in the 2022 Prelim.

Momentum is everything and especially so in 2024 footy. Brisbane naturally bring that in after the madness of the last third of the GWS game.

Can they take it to the MCG? Geelong are beatable but playing well themselves.

The Lachie Neale impact will be so crucial either way. He will inspire Brisbane if he plays with his normal excellence. If he's down, Geelong will lap that up and go for the 'kill'.

We just have to believe in the MCG factor albeit that is mollified by the fact it is Geelong and not a regular tenant. Often one Prelim is close and one not – think this one will be even but just to the Cats.

Match Selection: Geelong by 10 points

Suggested Bets: Geelong 1-39 @ $2.25