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With all the great opportunities on the Betfair Exchange comes incredible data. The team at Betfair provides a Washup of some of the biggest sporting events, with the stunning results, boilovers and statistical quirks that come with the action!
Will an inspirational Blue win a second Brownlow? Will a star young Magpie get vindication for last year? Or will a champion Lion join the rarest of air?
It is going to be a fascinating watch on Brownlow night with key chances emerging from everywhere in recent weeks.
Last year's favourite Nick Daicos and last year's winner Lachie Neale each collected 40 disposals in the final round in big wins for their clubs. Both are predicted to land three votes on the Betfair model.
Daicos is again a leading contender in the market, as a marginal second favourite behind Patrick Cripps. Cripps is predicted to go vote-less against the Saints, but he would have to be some chance? 30 disposals including a huge second half that nearly dragged his team across the line.
The model has Cripps finishing one vote behind Daicos, so it is going to be a fascinating final round watch.
The inelligible Isaac Heeney will likely be right up there, but watch for his teammate Errol Gulden to come with a charge. Gulden polled the most votes of any player in the competition after the half point of last season, so he can finish strong.
Last year's Brownlow market was all about Lachie Neale being over the odds, with a victory coming at nearly $20 despite the Betfair Prediction's Model having him only one vote off the lead.
It could be happening again, with the two-time winner peaking at $380 at one stage this season. He is now a third favourite at $9 and is predicted to have 26 votes on the model (ranked third). He did touch $5.50 about a month ago.
The previously mentioned Patrick Cripps traded as high as $44 during the season. He is now the outright favourite at $2.48.
Isaac Heeney spent seven weeks as favourite before being ruled ineligible by the AFL Tribunal after a suspension.
Nick Daicos spent most of last year as favourite, but a slow start this season saw him hit $20 before lighting up in a big way. He is now $2.66 on the Betfair Exchange, in from $6 a fortnight ago. The model has him winning.
Marcus Bontempelli is another leading contender who hit a high price. As the Dogs form struggled early he traded as high as $30 before shortening into $5.50 as the form of his team improved significantly. He is now back out to $18…which is Lachie Neale 2023 territory.
Final round specs…
N Daicos 40 disposals, 25k, 15h, 2 goals 3 Votes?
L Neale 40 disposals, 24k, 16h, 1 goal 3 Votes?
P Cripps 30 disposals, 12k, 18h, 9 tackles, 8 clearances 3 Votes?
M Bontempelli 22 disposals, 12k, 10h, 1 goal X Votes?
BETFAIR WASHUP: 2024 AFL SEASON'S CRAZIEST EXCHANGE MOVES
The 2024 AFL season is shaping up as one of the most even in history, with all 18 teams in the competition experiencing peaks and troughs in form at various stages of the year.
1993 and 1997 are often held as the benchmark for competitive seasons, with only three games separating 1st and 12th in 1993, and four games separating 2nd and 13th in 1997.
The 2024 campaign had a runaway leader in Sydney who have come back to the pack, a beaten Grand Finalist who looked down and out but are now on the rampage, and an enigmatic Victorian club who are trying to defy an unwanted recent history.
Here we look at the top five wild Betfair Exchange fluctuations from the 2024 season so far.
LIONS SPURRED BY DENTED PRIDE
Entering the season off a heartbreaking Grand Final defeat, the focus around Brisbane was whether they could shake the pain and rise again.
The answer looked clear when they dropped their first three games, two of them at the Gabba.
The Lions would sit 2-5 after seven matches and were still 13th on the table heading into their Round 13 bye.
The pre-season premiership favourites ($5.80) hit a remarkable $70 in the run (to win the premiership) when the Giants thumped them by 54 points in Round 8.
Now, on the back of nine straight victories they are $3.75, clear favourite and nearly half the price of their biggest market threat.
The Lions have had nearly $15,000 matched on them at greater than $20 this season.
The last team to lose a Grand Final and win a flag the following year was Hawthorn in 2012-2013. Maybe it's time for Fagan's Lions to do the same?
ESSENDON OR ESSEN-DONE?
It's been 20 years since the Bombers won a final (yes really, in case no-one has mentioned it).
Last year they sat fifth after 17 rounds with a 9-6 record and a percentage of 107. They would win just twice for the remainder of the year to fall well out of the eight, with three crushing defeats by in excess of 70 points in the run home.
This year they sat 9-2-1 and 2nd on the table at the midway point of the season before losing six of their next seven to fall out of the eight again.
A gutsy victory over Fremantle last week has pumped some life back into their tyres but the challenge of playing finals is still in front of them.
Brad Scott's Bombers hit a season low of $1.20 after Round 13 in Top 8 markets. They hit $5.50 last week and are back in to $4.60 now. The season high for them was $9.80 when they got crunched by Port Adelaide in Round Four.
Can that Fremantle comeback be the start of something? They've been a crazy team to monitor on the Exchange this season. Where will that ride take us?
KANGAROOS BUILDING
The Kangaroos started the season 0-11, conceding over 100 points in all of those defeats. They were two games behind both Richmond and West Coast heading into their Round 14 clash with the Eagles at Optus Stadium.
North were $1.12 in the least season wins market at that time with the Eagles as high as $500 when they won back to back games, and the Tigers peaking at $120 early in the season.
The Kangaroos are now likely to finish ahead of both of those sides and are out to $4.10 in that same market for least season wins.
The Tigers are $1.30 in that market now.
CATS AND SWANS… PLEASE STAND UP?
Geelong's 7-0 start to the season wasn't expected, but at the same time wouldn't have surprised anyone if that makes sense.
The Cats fell out of the finals frame for the first time in eight years last season, and with some ageing stars, it was considered unlikely they would contend again so soon.
But this is Geelong, a team who has played six Grand Finals and 15 finals campaigns since 2007. A remarkable picture of consistency, they are a side you can never count out.
However, that 7-0 start was followed by six losses in seven matches as they fell to 8-6.
They have since won five of their next six to sit only percentage off third on the table.
It's been a wild ride for Geelong, hitting a low of $5.50 in flag markets and a high of $100 which was matched.
They are now at $15.50 on the Exchange.
Sydney's back end of 2023 suggested they were going to be a dangerous prospect this season. The Swans won seven of their last nine to claim a finals spot last season and that momentum continued into a barnstorming start in 2024.
The Swans were 13-1, with 11 straight victories heading into their home clash with Fremantle in Round 16. Sydney have since lost five of their next six, with the only victory coming against North Melbourne.
The last two defeats have been quite alarming. A heavy home defeat against the resurgent Bulldogs and a humiliating 112-point loss to Port Adelaide.
Only Carlton in 1945 have won a premiership after losing a game by 100 points during the home and away season.
Sydney have had nearly $200,000 matched on them at less than $5 in premiership markets, trading as low as $3. They peaked at $16.50 and are currently $6, with their price doubling in the space of four rounds.
HAWKS SOARING BACK INTO CONTENTION
Hawthorn were expected to be competitive in 2024, but were considered a long way short of a finals ready team.
This view was compounded when they started the season 0-5.
The response was remarkable, with Sam Mitchell's men winning 11 of their next 14 to become one of the competition's form sides against all expectations.
Hawthorn were $200 to make the Top 8 when they were 0-5. When they led the Giants by 27 points at three quarter time last week, they were $1.15…
They are now about evens at $2.08. Whatever happens it has been a huge rise from the Hawks.
FINALLY… WHAT ABOUT CHARLIE?
Last year's Brownlow market was all about Lachie Neale being over the odds, with a victory coming at nearly $20 despite the Betfair Prediction's Model having him only one vote off the lead.
It could be happening again, with the two-time winner peaking at $380 at one stage this season. He is now a third favourite at $5.50 and is predicted to have 22.5 votes on the model (ranked third).
Another former winner is Patrick Cripps who traded as high as $44 during the season. He is now the outright favourite at $3.50, and the outright leader in the model.
Isaac Heeney spent seven weeks as favourite before being ruled ineligible by the AFL Tribunal after a suspension.
Nick Daicos spent most of last year as favourite, but a slow start this season saw him hit $20 before lighting up in a big way. He is now $6 on the Betfair Exchange.
Marcus Bontempelli is another leading contender who hit a high price. As the Dogs form struggled early he traded as high as $30 before shortening into $5.50 as the form of his team improved significantly.
