3 minute read

Racing and Sports will provide analysis of all games in the 2023 AFL Season.

We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.

COLLINGWOOD v GWS

Friday 22 September @ MCG

It would have taken some wild imagination to have these two playing in a Prelim at season's start – it was even wild to think about it six weeks ago.

While Collingwood had established themselves soon into 2023 at the pointy end, GWS were floundering almost at the nominal draft pick stage.

But over that last month and a bit, the Giants game has really come together with pressure around the ball and so much more clinical going forward. Their backline has been a stable influence all the way.

That defence will have plenty of attention when the Pies bring the heat early as you would expect after the fortnight off.

Remember that is on top of having the previous fortnight off with the pre-finals bye. Who starts best could even decide that.

One thing you might question is was that win actually really good form or not? Melbourne have been disappointing in their execution and yet really should have won that match.

There is no doubting the Magpies missed Nick Daicos once again. They seem slightly rudderless in the middle and others incurred slight injury concerns too.

We've seen in recent years the winning Semi Final teams play very well with that continuity of play and Collingwood face that prospect here.

With that in mind, it was hard not to be impressed with what GWS did in Adelaide. Sure Port Adelaide were disappointing and much will be made of their fade out, failing to handle Finals style football.

But take nothing from the Giants. Once they got flowing into the second quarter, they turned the 'Power' off. No matter how they try to spin it, they were eaten up alive by a hungry orange wave.

Naturally your Coniglios, Greens, Whitfields etc will get plenty of it in those matches but the thing that will make them most dangerous is Jesse Hogan having 8 shots at goal and Toby Greene still dangerous.

Collingwood love to play off and rebound. They will have to engage for a lot longer if Hogan, Riccardi and Greene remain very active. Maynard getting off at the judiciary is so critical as the likely Toby match up.

The Daicos scenario is so significant. It means much focus is relieved from Pendlebury, Mitchell and Sidebottom as the elder statesmen. If he's at his best they will explode – if he's off his game returning then it's game on.

Recall that despite only being in the comp for 11 years and playing just 14 times, GWS not only has a very decent record in these clashes but have met twice in Finals.

Overall it is Collingwood 8/GWS 6 but it is 1/1 in Finals with the last one being this very Prelim in 2019 and the Giants just prevailed overcoming plenty.

There is far too much between them in the market but maybe, maybe Collingwood will get the job done. Their forwards will really need to be on top of their games though. De Goey becomes even more important.

Match Selection: Collingwood by 7 points

Suggested Bets: Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.05 with bet365 *
 

bet365 also have these additional Match Combos:-

Toby Greene and Jamie Elliott to combine for 4+ Goals @ $2.00 *

Jordan De Goey and Mason Cox to combine for 2+ Goals @ $3.00 *

* Odds correct at 9:00am 21/9/23

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