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Read our AFL expert tips and analysis for every game in this season of the 2024 premiership season with Betfair’s AFL betting expert Joel Cashman. Includes game summaries, AFL expert tips and best Back and Lay bets for every round.
ESSENDON VS ADELAIDE
Essendon have had the wood over Adelaide for a number of years now, winning all of the last seven matches against the Crows dating back to 2018.
Essendon are currently entrenched in the top-8 and will be giving their all to remain in the finals hunt. They hold a perfect record at Marvel Stadium, winning all five matches under the roof.
However, don't expect the Bombers to win by a substantial margin. The Bombers have failed to cover the line in their last six matches when starting as favourite.
The Crows have relished the underdog status, covering the line in five of the last six matches when starting against the odds- including their last match at Marvel Stadium, a 2-point win against Carlton.
Betting Strategy
BACK- Essendon @ $1.53
Essendon have had the wood over Adelaide for a number of years now, winning all of the last seven matches against the Crows dating back to 2018.
The Crows have relished the underdog status, covering the line in five of the last six matches when starting against the odds- including their last match at Marvel Stadium, a 2-point win against Carlton.
GWS VS GOLD COAST
The Giant's form has been very hit and miss throughout stages this season, but their form at home has remained strong- winning six of eight games with a home ground advantage.
Gold Coast are one of the most fun teams to do predictions for this season, with an 0-8 record away and 9-0 at home. The Suns are also yet to cover the line as favourites or as underdogs in any of these away matches.
GWS defeated Gold Coast the last time these sides played, winning by 28 points at Adelaide Hills and covered the line comfortably.
Betting Strategy
BACK- GWS Line (-17.5 pts) @ $1.87
GWS defeated Gold Coast the last time these sides played, winning by 28 points at Adelaide Hills and covered the line comfortably.
ST.KILDA VS WEST COAST
Despite having a poor season, the Saints have managed to win three of their last six matches- including a win against the ladder leading Swans in their last match played at Marvel Stadium.
The last time these two sides played, St Kilda successfully covered the line as favourites.
West Coast have lost all eight matches played away from home this season, losing by an average margin of 54 points. In six of these eight matches, the opposition has covered the line as the favourite. Three of these matches took place at Marvel Stadium losing by an average margin of 57 points!
Betting Strategy
BACK- St Kilda Line (-25.5 pts) @ $1.87
West Coast have lost all eight matches played away from home this season, losing by an average margin of 54 points. In six of these eight matches, the opposition has covered the line as the favourite. Three of these matches took place at Marvel Stadium losing by an average margin of 57 points!
HAWTHORN VS COLLINGWOOD
Hawthorn did a brilliant job against a top-4 hopeful in Fremantle last week, defeating them against the odds to stay in the finals hunt and secure their 8th win in the last 10 matches!
Collingwood have lost their last three straight matches and have fallen out of the top-8 in a dramatic fall off, with their injury list- particularly to the forward line players- finally catching up to them.
The MCG used to be a fortress for the Magpies, but this season they hold a 4-win, 4-loss and 1 draw record. Hawthorn have won their last two matches at the home of football.
Betting Strategy
LAY – Collingwood @ $2
The MCG used to be a fortress for the Magpies, but this season they hold a 4-win, 4-loss and 1 draw record. Hawthorn have won their last two matches at the home of football.
GEELONG VS WESTERN BULLDOGS
Geelong has a brilliant record against the Western Bulldogs, that makes them Chris Scott's most successful side to coach against since taking over in 2011, winning 16 of 19 matches including in Round 4 this season.
At GMHBA Stadium, the Cats have won 10 of their last 11 matches against the Bulldogs- with the Bulldogs only win coming in the final round of last year when Geelong rested many of their star players.
Geelong have won their last three matches to storm into the top-4 on the ladder, winning these matches by an average margin of 38 points.
Betting Strategy
BACK- Geelong @ $1.46
Geelong has a brilliant record against the Western Bulldogs, that makes them Chris Scott's most successful side to coach against since taking over in 2011, winning 16 of 19 matches including in Round 4 this season.
PORT ADELAIDE VS RICHMOND
Port Adelaide look likely winners against the 18th ranked Richmond, with the Tigers winning just two matches this season and one of their last 13 games.
With Port Adelaide too short to back as outright winners, the smart money is with the over/under market. Seven of the last eight matches the Power have won have gone under the total- meaning when they have the game on their terms they make it a low scoring affair.
In five of the last seven matches Richmond have played, the combined points have gone under the total at an average of 168 points.
Betting Strategy
BACK- Total Points Under 169.5 pts @ $1.87
In five of the last seven matches Richmond have played, the combined points have gone under the total at an average of 168 points.
BRISBANE VS SYDNEY
Two of the games highest scoring sides are facing off in what could be a Grand Final preview. Sydney have made a habit of playing in high scoring matches, with all of their last eight matches going over the total, with an average of 185 combined match points.
Brisbane have been very similar in this respect, especially since they have gone on their run into the top-4. Eight of the last nine Brisbane matches have gone over the total, with an average of 194.7 total match points- the most of any side in the AFL during this time!
Betting Strategy
BACK- Total Points Over 174.5 pts @ $1.87
Two of the games highest scoring sides are facing off in what could be a Grand Final preview. Sydney have made a habit of playing in high scoring matches, with all of their last eight matches going over the total, with an average of 185 combined match points.
FREMANTLE VS MELBOURNE
Fremantle and Melbourne have been two dour sides for a few years now, with their defense first attitude leading to low scores.
Six out of the eight matches Fremantle have played at Optus Stadium have gone unders, with an average of 148 total points at their home ground.
Melbourne matches have been the second lowest scoring on average in 2024, with their games averaging 154 points.
Four of the last five Melbourne matches have gone under the total.
Betting Strategy
BACK- Total Points Under 154.5 pts @ $1.87
Four of the last five Melbourne matches have gone under the total.
CARLTON VS NORTH MELBOURNE
North Melbourne showed some strong form for a patch of games, securing a couple of wins and a couple of close losses which will please Roos supporters, however they appear to have run out of steam after a 79-point loss to the Swans who were coming off back-to-back losses.
North Melbourne have lost all eight matches against top-8 sides this season, covering the line as underdogs just twice. They average losing margin of 48.5 points against top-8 sides, which includes their 56-point loss to Carlton in Round 3.
Betting Strategy
BACK- Carlton Line (-36.5 pts) @ $1.87
North Melbourne have lost all eight matches against top-8 sides this season, covering the line as underdogs just twice. They average losing margin of 48.5 points against top-8 sides, which includes their 56-point loss to Carlton in Round 3.
AFL TIPS AND BETTING STRATEGIES
Welcome to Betfair's AFL Tipping page for 2024! You will find AFL previews, betting tips and strategies for the 2024 premiership season from our team of footy experts. With 18 teams in the AFL, 24 rounds this season made up of 207 matches, the team at Betfair is here to help you navigate the season from a betting point of view. We'll be providing our expert picks for every game and once the regular season is over and we are left with 8 finals teams, the tips don't stop there as we've got you covered for the finals series as well.
Each week, we'll be putting out betting advice for every game of the round including best bets for the week, value picks, lay tips and player prop selections. These will range from margin picks, first goal scorers, who to bet at the line and of course who the Betfair team think will win each game. When making their weekly AFL tips, our experts will look at recent form, statistics from throughout the season, historical trends and rely on their developed betting knowledge giving you informed selections backed up by data.
The latest AFL tips will be posted on this page each week as teams get released for the round as the in and outs of each team can dramatically impact who wins a game of football. This is why it's also important to keep an eye out for late changes teams may swing, and adjust your betting strategies accordingly. For example, if a key defender is out, the opposing team's key forward might be due for a big game.
A great feature of Betfair is that you'll be able to put our tips on the Betfair Hub to use on the Betfair Exchange as not only does Betfair provide expert betting content, we are also a betting exchange where punters can bet against each other. You've got a wide range of AFL markets on the exchange which our tips cover including futures markets like the premiership market, top 4, top 8, wooden spoon and much more.
Our tipping content is tailored to the unique features you'll only find on the Betfair Exchange making it the perfect place to action the tips you'll find on this page. Simply click on the blue and pink widgets next to the tips depending on whether you want to back or lay the tip, and you'll be taken straight to the correlating market on the exchange where you can place your bets.
Not only have we got weekly footy tipping content, but Betfair also has a wide range of AFL related betting articles that'll keep you informed throughout the 2024 football calendar which you can find here. So what are you waiting for? Kick your AFL season into gear with premium AFL betting tips thanks to the Betfair Hub. Play your way with Betfair.
