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LAST WEEK'S RECAP
Followed up the first good win for a long while with an absolute wash, with two missing the cut and Fitzpatrick only managing to put two decent rounds together. It was a pair of young Brits who were left to battle it out down the stretch, with the unheralded Dan Bradbury edging countryman Sam Bairstow to take out his first Euro event. Both were paying well over triple figures before tee off and took advantage of a week where the shorter priced names failed to impress.
THIS WEEK'S EVENT
After sitting out last week Jon Rahm returns to headline the field on home soil as the Real Club de Golf in Sotogrande welcomes players for the Andalucia Masters. The Robert Trent Jones design has twice hosted the national Open however hasn't seen a huge amount of professional action since opening in 1964.
The layout underwent a significant re-vamp in 2011 and after re-opening in 2016 it hosted its first event on the modern tour last year when Adrian Meronk set the greens on fire on his way to victory despite a fairly pedestrian tee-to-green performance. Meronk is no slouch with the big stick in hand and his two closest finishers were also big hitters, indicating that the 7,100 layout may be susceptible to being overpowered.
Conditions have been wet this week however should clear come tee off, giving players some soft targets to aim at from likely pretty short distances – this week could see a number of 20-under or better finishers.
COURSE HISTORY AND FIT
With only the one event played here in the modern era there isn't much to work with in the way of course history. Meronk isn't suiting up this week and the biggest overachievers from last year are Chase Hanna, Jeong Weon Ko and Jeff Winther – not exactly household names.
BETTING MARKETS
This looks like the last week I'll be favouring Euro over PGA action, with betting markets relatively even in terms of flows as the PGA officially starts its 2025 campaign.
Jon Rahm is a very short priced favourite and has seen a third of total market volume change hands across his line. Backers and layers are at a stalemate and his price has barely budged from its current $4.10.
Well back in both price and bettor interest is Rasmus Hojgaard who had a solid week in France but was let down by his putter. Local gun David Puig is a surprising third in line but he comes in on the back of absolutely scintillating form with a T3 and T4 in the last month and along with Olesen and Tom McKibbin has captured decent flows although with no real movement in price.
The model has the whole top of the board rated as under the odds so I'll be diving into some mid-range names who haven't seen much love from bettors.
Betting Strategy
BACK: (Winner) Thriston Lawrence for 0.5 units (Rated at 30.00)
Disappointed last week and bettors are avoiding him like the plague which has resulted in a decent overlay once again. His irons absolutely deserted him in a bizarrely poor effort. I'm willing to bank on a bounceback here and he's the week's top play.
BACK: (Winner) Matt Wallace for 0.5 units (Rated at 30.00)
The streaky Brit has continually improved his off the tee play over the last two seasons and bagged his first victory across the pond. He seems to enjoy his returns to Europe in the offseason and has already banked a win at the European Masters last month. Not a big overlay but he should love this easy track.
BACK: (Winner) Sebastian Soderberg for 0.5 units (Rated at 56.00)
He's popped up already in the column and continues to be under-rated. He's taken a bit of a whack in the model ratings in the last fortnight but there's still value to be had at his big price here.
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