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LAST WEEK'S RECAP
Great week for the column as all the tips were amongst it before Hatton blew the field away with an 11-under effort on moving day. He held on down the stretch and after dropping three strokes in two holes he made a clutch birdie at the last to claim both individual and team honours. Playing beside his old man would no doubt have calmed the nerves after giving away the lead and it means the event has delivered a family victory two years running.
THIS WEEK'S EVENT
We'll be sticking in Europe as the PGA fall season still isn't quite catching the full attention of bettors. Le Golf National will welcome back top flight golf after the Olympic action just a month or so back. Hosting the Ryder Cup last year as well we've been seeing an awful lot of the 7,250 yard par-71. Field wise we've got a decent showing from the best of Europe and Billy Horschel has stuck around as he did last year.
The course should play a fair bit harder than the Olympic version which was set up to appeal to non-golf fans through easy scoring. The separator here is usually a combination of strong iron play and trouble-avoidance – this is a week to keep it boring and play for position. Whilst not a true links track, the lack of much tree coverage should make it a decent segue from last week's classic links action.
Length off the tee is very much not a requirement here and most weekend hacks would have enough firepower here to succeed. They would need to keep it straight though as missing the short grass often results in a watery end – the track has one of the highest penalty rates across the Euro and PGA Tours.
COURSE HISTORY AND FIT
While he's only had two goes around there, Rasmus Hoojhard has played such exceptional golf that he'll take in the biggest performance based overlay in the field. A little further back is fellow Dane Jeff Winther who actually ends up with a bigger total overlay due to more experience.
The biggest total overlay in the field belongs to Marcel Siem, who has played nearly a stroke per round above expectation here and his 38 rounds of experience see him carry in over a third per round bump to his baseline – about as big as you'll see. Two more Danes in Kjeldsen and Oleson are also taking big overlays in with history here proving exceptionally predictive of future performances.
Last week's early leader Darren Fichardt has not enjoyed his time on French soil and will carry in a whopping 0.4 stroke per round hit to his baseline thanks to his awful showings here. Locals Pavon and Guerrier aren't much better and look to be ones to avoid.
BETTING MARKETS
The market has given the favouritism nod to Horschel who is currently trading at $15, just ahead of course specialist Rasmus Hojgaard. Money has been spread very evenly over the field which is a nice change after the single digit favourites we've been seeing of late – this really is anyone's week.
The market hasn't really latched onto any one name in particular, and with punters clearly struggling to price this one up, it feels like the perfect week for the quantitative approach to dig up some value plays.
Betting Strategy
BACK: (Winner) Thriston Lawrence for 0.75 units (Rated at 20.00)
Google Docs autocorrect really made me work to type this bloke's name but he's worth the effort – the young South African has burst out of the 100's in the model ratings to get right up into the top 50 on the back of a slew of top-10 finishes this season. He got edged by Horschel in a three-man playoff back in Wentworth and with a solid all-round game that doesn't rely on distance, he's a great fit here.
BACK: (Winner) Alex Fitzpatrick for 0.5 units (Rated at 44.00)
The younger Fitzpatrick brother hit a real purple patch across August and September, but has been disappointing the last few weeks. He's not a great course fit here, but if he can drive like he did at the British Masters, he's a great chance to go even better than his T12 there.
BACK: (Winner) Joost Luiten for 0.25 units (Rated at 60.00)
The veteran Dutchman relies on accuracy and approach play to gain his strokes these days, so is a perfect fit for this track. It's been a while since he's had a W, but he went close a few times last year and so makes a great trading play here.
