3 minute read
Welcome to Betfair’s home for golf betting tips! We’ve got free betting tips, plus course and player advice for golf events on the PGA and European Tour thanks to Betfair’s Golf Prediction Model. It is a proven source for big-priced winners for several years, tipping several big-priced winners and winning at +63.7% POT for the 2022 calendar year. Find the latest golf betting tips and expert advice every week on the Betfair Hub!
LAST WEEK'S RECAP
A bit of a fizzer to finish off the column's European vacation with Matt Wallace and Thriston Lawrence having a 'mare' on moving day to take them both out of contention. Guerrier and Campillo went into the final round locked at 19-under and they decided dueling for 18 holes wasn't enough for them – it took another half round to break the deadlock as the pair battled through the equal longest playoff in Euro history. In the end par on the 18th was good enough for the Frenchman to claim victory.
THIS WEEK'S EVENT
Return to regular programming this week as the best field we've seen for weeks heads to Narashino Country Club in Japan for the ZOZO Championship. The small field, no cut event sees 78 players tackle a track that looks like a compressed version of your typical PGA Tour stop. At 7,100ish yards it's well down on distance, however the heavily tree-lined fairways should make players feel right at home.
While there is no challenge for length, the tight fairways feature a number of doglegs to mitigate the advantage of longer hitters. There's the opportunity to take some risk and cut corners however clipping a tree and losing it in the forest is an ever present danger.
Greens are on the smaller side and are heavily sloped while playing very quick – which has drawn numerous comparisons to Augusta. Generally, a well placed drive is the key to setting up birdie opportunities as greens are only able to be attacked effectively from a narrow arc of angles.
COURSE HISTORY AND FIT
With the event in rotation for five years, we've built up a reasonable database of past performances. Unfortunately it looks like history here isn't a great guide of future performance so even the big overachievers are only taking small overlays to baseline skill into the event.
The list of overperformers is absolutely dominated by local names, indicating familiarity with the general surrounds and timezone is likely a bigger factor than the track itself. Hideki, along with Ryo Hisatsune and Satoshi Kodaira have all enjoyed their time here, outperforming baseline expectation by over a stroke per round.
Down the other end of the list we find Joel Dahmen, whose three visits here have yielded mostly underwhelming performances.
Course fit-wise, there's a surprising result as off the tee accuracy is not a differentiator here, as would be indicated by the eye test. I still believe position is critical to scoring here but the stats indicate that missing a fairway isn't as big a deal as it would be most weeks. Other stats are mostly in line with average so the only major adjustments are for golfers who gain a lot of strokes through accuracy – Collin Morikawa being the stand out and he'll take a small but significant hit to his baseline.
BETTING MARKETS
Coming off his best ever season, Xander Schauffele has been installed as a single digit favourite, with last year's winner Morikawa right behind him. Another previous winner Hideki is third in line, however is receiving almost no love from punters.
It's Sungjae Im who is lighting up the boards, trading almost as strongly as Xander. Layers seem to be gaining the upper hand and after early trading in the mid teens he is drifting steadily.
There's no value at the top of the board, with Morikawa in particular well under the odds as bettors overthink his victory last year. I'll be spreading a bit of love to some lesser lights as there's some juicy overlays a bit further down.
Betting Strategy
BACK: (Winner) Kurt Kitayama for 0.5 units (Rated at 24.00)
He may not quite be a local but he's got some Japanese heritage and despite his OGWR taking a hit over the year, I've got him pegged as playing the best golf of his short career. He comes into this event having played the last fortnight so he won't be as rusty as the big names. Solid overlay and he'll be my top play.
BACK: (Winner) Sam Stevens for 0.25 units (Rated at 80.00)
A late bloomer, Stevens made his way to the Korn Ferry Tour via the Latin American Tour and only spent a year in the minors before earning his big league card. He nabbed two top 5s within his first 10 events and is clearly comfortable at this level.
BACK: (Winner) Seamus Power for 0.25 units (Rated at 65.00)
After threatening to break into the upper echelons in 2022, Power reverted somewhat over the next two years. He's hit an upswing across the last 6 months and aside from a last up missed cut brings in a strong run of form here.
For more Betfair sports content including golf tips visit the Betfair Hub
