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Welcome to Betfair’s home for golf betting tips! We’ve got free betting tips, plus course and player advice for golf events on the PGA and European Tour thanks to Betfair’s Golf Prediction Model. It is a proven source for big-priced winners for several years, tipping several big-priced winners and winning at +63.7% POT for the 2022 calendar year. Find the latest golf betting tips and expert advice every week on the Betfair Hub!
LAST WEEK'S RECAP
Triple figure long shot Paul Waring held his nerve to keep our top picks at bay in Abu Dhabi. Waring's 36-hole total set a new low relative to par for the Euro however Hatton got close enough that backers should've been able to pocket a decent return as he traded down to the low twos after signing for his final round. Matt Wallace finished one further back and offered plenty of opportunity to trade out for a small gain.
THIS WEEK'S EVENT
The Earth course at Jumeirah Estate will once again welcome the top points earners on the Race to Dubai leaderboard for the season ender, with tee times kicking off tomorrow afternoon. Unfortunately Jon Rahm is a glaring omission from a field that is also missing a presence from the PGA regulars, leaving the door wide open for Rory McIlroy to capture a third win in the Gulf State.
There's not a huge amount of intrigue around this long parkland track. There's bunkering and water hazards sprinkled along the 7,700+ yards but they aren't anything more than decoration – the main game is on the fairways. Bash it as long as possible and keep it roughly straight and you're well on your way to scoring well here, which explains a lot of why Rory has done so well here.
COURSE HISTORY AND FIT
History here turns out to be enormously predictive of future success and no one in the field has enjoyed his time here more than Rory. However when compared to expectation, he's actually played about bang on in line meaning he takes in a course experience overlay but nothing else.
After adjusting for the quality of the player against the field it's Matt Wallace who comes out on top, having played over a stroke above expectation across four showings here. Right behind him is Adrian Otaegui and they'll both take roughly a third of a stroke overlay to their baselines into this week's simulations.
At the other end of the scale is Jordan Smith, who has been absolutely awful across a decent 24 round sample. It's one of the most consistent underperformance I can remember seeing, made even stranger by the fact he's got decent length off the tee.
BETTING MARKETS
Great volume flowing through although with tee off so close this is to be expected. Rory's history here has seen him receive massive punter interest and his name has seen almost half of total flows. It should be no surprise that the model has him as a fairly big lay continuing the divergence of opinion to exchange backers.
Of the other names it's Niemann who is the big mover, trading down to 16s from an open close to $20. Matt Wallace leads the drifters and despite the model liking him last week, I think he's got further to go.
Betting Strategy
BACK: (Winner) Joaquin Niemann for 1 unit (Rated at $13.50)
The model agrees with the smart money and even after being backed in heavily there's still great value available on the LIV convert. He didn't set the world on fire last week but posted a solid off the tee performance and has outperformed fields on driving distance on the LIV Tour all season.
BACK: (Winner) Min Woo Lee for 0.75 units (Rated at $24.00)
Never got going last week but he'll be able to unleash hot fury with the big stick this week. Is really in need of a win on a big stage to align the world's opinion of him to his own and this is the perfect setting for it.
BACK: (Winner) Tyrrell Hatton for 0.25 units (Rated at $8.00)
Rory is a rightful favourite but the gap to Hatton should be much smaller. Not a big overlay but having enjoyed success on the little unit this year I'm getting back on board.
BACK: (Winner) Johannes Veerman for 0.25 units (Rated at $85.00)
Set the course on fire last week with an opening round 63 and there's no reason he can't repeat that this week. Small trading play at good odds here.
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