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Heineken Champions Cup: Edinburgh the underdogs vs Leicester

3 minute read

The Heineken Champions Cup is back, with club rugby’s biggest sides set to battle it out across eight one-legged Round of 16 ties for a place in the quarter-finals.

The Heineken Champions Cup trophy
The Heineken Champions Cup trophy Picture: AAP Image

It's one of the most thrilling weekends of the rugby calendar, and it all kicks off on Friday with the opener seeing Leicester Tigers and Edinburgh Rugby facing off in an ever-feisty England v Scotland affair.

Edinburgh, 10/3 underdogs to beat 3/10 hosts Leicester, have failed to win a single match since defeating Saracens 20-14 in their final Heineken Champions Cup pool stage game to confirm their place in the knockouts, but those four losses on the trot can largely be written down to the absence of their Scotland internationals who were off helping the nation to an impressive third-place finish in the Six Nations.

With Prop Pierre Schoeman, back-rows Jamie Ritchie and Hamish Watson, and wing Duhan van der Merwe all returning, they offer Leicester a very different threat than their domestic form would suggest.

They still face an uphill battle to defeat the third-place Gallagher Premiership side away from home, but it will be closer than their long odds suggest - a straight win is more than enough value for the risk-taker, but Edinburgh +8 at 1/1 is a solid, safer bet. In that vein, a Leicester win by 6-10 points at 9/2 is also a shout.

Saturday features four matches, but by far the most exciting is the all-Irish evening clash between Leinster and Ulster.

A myriad of Ireland's Six Nations stars will be back for Leinster, and some for Ulster too - but strikingly, 16 of the 23 players who featured against England on the final day play in Leinster blue.

They are favourites not just to beat Ulster - 2/17 while Ulster are 8/1 to get the upset - but for the tournament itself. Bookies have staked the Irish province as 6/5 favourites ahead of current champions Stade Rochelais, who are 5/1 to retain the trophy.

But with Johnny Sexton now almost certainly out for the season, and likely having played his last Leinster game as a result, will Leinster be as good as they were with him in the side?

They should defeat their rivals, but perhaps expectations of a drubbing are overstated, and matches with a rival are never plain sailing. Leinster by 11-15 at 11/2 seems good value.

Now to Sunday, where Saracens host Ospreys in what should be one the Round of 16's standout matches. Expect the StoneX stadium to be bouncing as the London side attempt to knock Wales' only representative out of the competition, but it should be a tight match for the 2/11 hosts against the 6/1 visitors.

Yet the Ospreys could cause an upset against their favoured opposition - they defeated Leicester and Montpellier on the road in the pool stage, champions of England and France respectively, and so to write them off here would be foolhardy. A straight Ospreys win is value enough for the punter who wants to back the underdog, but no matter what, the Welsh side should be in the battle until the end; Saracens by 1-5 at 7/1 could be the play.

In other matches, South African sides Cell C Sharks (1/2) and DHL Stormers (1/3) should defeat Munster (21/10) and Harlequins (3/1) respectively, fueled by home advantage - although expect both matches to be close, with Harlequins in particular keeping Stormers in reach. On the flip side, Vodacom Bulls (10/1) should struggle a long way from home against Stade Toulouse (1/10) and their star man Antoine Dupont.

Exeter Chiefs (2/5) should have enough to defeat Montpellier (11/4) at home, while La Rochelle (1/10) should power over Gloucester (11/1).


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