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Leinster face toughest challenge yet

3 minute read

The Heineken Champions Cup returns for the semi-finals, with four teams battling it out this weekend for a place in club rugby's biggest game.

Picture: AAP Image

All four sides still in contention have won the competition in the past five years, such is the quality on display, and Dublin awaits the two winners.

But for 2018 champions Leinster and 2021 victors Toulouse, a date at the Aviva Stadium arrives much earlier - the French team will travel to the Irish capital for their most important game of the season on Saturday.

Leinster are 1/3 favourites ahead of 3/1 Toulouse, and that reflects the likeliness that the Irish province at home will just be too much for the TOP14 league leaders.

It also reflects last year's semi-final, where Leinster ran out 40-17 winners at the same venue - but do not write off Toulouse this year. They have grown in confidence as this season's Heineken Champions Cup has developed, and this clash will be a mammoth test of Leinster's title credentials.

Fuelled by the simply sensational French international scrum-half Antoine Dupont, Toulouse will give their all: the French side +9.5 is good value at 4/5, but Leinster to win by 6-10 at 5/1 may be more worth it.

In terms of anytime try scorers, James Lowe is a loss for Leinster having scored a brace in this game last year and looked electric this season but either of his potential replacements - Jimmy O'Brien being the more likely choice over Jordan Larmour - will offer good odds and with the province certain to try to use width after drawing Toulouse in at the breakdown.

On Sunday, the second semi-final takes place between title-holders La Rochelle and the surprise package Exeter Chiefs.

The English side have the longest odds to lift the trophy of any of the remaining sides at an extraordinary 18/1 (Leinster 1/2, La Rochelle 9/2, Toulouse 5/1) given that they are only two games away from doing just that, but the reality is it would be a seismic shock if they even made the final.

They are 11/2 longshots to defeat 2/9 favourites La Rochelle, which seems harsh considering the systematic way in which they dismantled the much-fancied DHL Stormers in the last round, but the home comforts that Exeter experienced in that quarter-final you can expect La Rochelle to find in this penultimate stage.

The champions were resplendent against Saracens after having not been at their best at times throughout the tournament before then.

If Ronan O'Gara's men are at full throttle again, this could be even more one-sided - La Rochelle 16-20 at 6/1 is good value.

Tawera Kerr-Barlow, the All-Blacks scrum-half in La Rochelle yellow, will look to pick and go from the breakdown and sneak his way through Exeter lines to score as he did twice against Saracens. When the French side prefer a heavier approach in such situations, don't look past Levani Botia


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