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Read our NRL expert tips and analysis for every game of the 2024 premiership season with Betfair’s NRL analyst. Includes game summaries, predictions, tips and best Back and Lay bets for every round. NRL tips for the upcoming round are online now!
CANTERBURY BULLDOGS VS CRONULLA SHARKS
Canterbury lost no admirers last week when they endured plenty of outs and pushed the Roosters. They are a bet against a Cronulla team that has been mixing form of late. but they have covered six of eight at Accor and five of six when getting a start of at least a try. With road favourites off conceding 30-plus covering at just 43%, Canterbury are the way to play this.
Betting Strategy
BACK CANTERBURY +4.5 @ $1.75 or better
With road favourites off conceding 30-plus covering at just 43%, Canterbury are the way to play this.
NEW ZEALAND VS BRISBANE
The Warriors were utterly humiliated last week against the Titans and that makes them an outstanding bet this week. The out-of-form Broncos just happen to be in the way and with a chance of saving their Origin stars from an international trip, the Warriors should be bet early and bet with confidence. Teams off conceding 60-plus are an insane 18-3 against the spread since 2008 while home underdogs off conceding 50-plus cover at 77%. Get right around New Zealand this week.
Betting Strategy
BACK NEW ZEALAND +3.5 @ $1.60 or better
Get right around New Zealand this week
NEWCASTLE VS PARRAMATTA
Betting in this game is astonishing with the Knights opening up the smallest of favourites. They should be heavily favoured against the team that is now last on the ladder. The Eels have covered just one of their last 11 road games and two of their last 14 at night. The Knights are 11-6 against the spread off scoring 18-plus points while teams off scoring 18 against Penrith are 18-5 against the number the last four years. Chips in Newcastle here.
Betting Strategy
BACK NEWCASTLE @ $1.55 or better
favourites. They should be heavily favoured against the team that is now last on the ladder
LAY PARRAMATTA @ $2.50 or shorter
The Eels have covered just one of their last 11 road games and two of their last 14 at night.
MELBOURNE VS CANBERRA
Canberra are historically a good bounceback team off a humiliation and with their surprisingly strong record in Melbourne, they are a nice play getting a big start this week. The Raiders have won five of the last six at AAMI Park, an astonishing record given the recent differences in the two teams. The Raiders have also covered nine straight off conceding 40-plus while they are 8-2 against the spread as an interstate underdog of at least two converted tries.
Betting Strategy
BACK CANBERRA +14.5 @ $1.75 or better
The Raiders have also covered nine straight off conceding 40-plus while they are 8-2 against the spread as an interstate underdog of at least two converted tries.
ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA VS DOLPHINS
The Dolphins are arguably a better team than the Dragons but St George Illawarra are the bet in this one. The Phins won this matchup 38-0 in Brisbane in Round 2 but Shane Flanagan's team has improved significantly over that time. They have covered nine of 12 at Kogarah off a loss while they are 6-1 against the number off conceding 30-plus. They are overs in early betting.
Betting Strategy
BACK ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA at $1.75 or better
They are overs in early betting.
PENRITH VS NORTH QUEENSLAND
Fresh off a bye, Penrith look primed for a big win. Remarkably, the Cowboys have more players on Origin duty than the Panthers. There are two big factors pushing a Panthers cover here: Penrith are 24-11 against the spread at BlueBet Stadium while they are 19-5 against the spread when Penrith are off conceding 18-plus. The Cowboys are 11-18 against the spread interstate and 8-15 against the number when against a Top 4 team and look seriously up against it this week.
Betting Strategy
BACK PENRITH -12.5 @ $1.70 or better
Fresh off a bye, Penrith look primed for a big win
SYDNEY ROOSTERS VS WESTS TIGERS
The Roosters' dominance over the Tigers is utterly obscene. Dating back to 2008, the Tigers are 22-3 against the spread, winning 21 of the last 23 matches. They have won and covered the last seven. The Tigers though look the play in this one. Teams off scoring 48-plus have covered at a clip of 67% the last four seasons while the Tigers are 10-4 against the number off scoring 26-plus points. The Roosters will have played backing up from Origin while the Tigers are all clear on that front.
Betting Strategy
BACK WESTS TIGERS +15.5 at $1.75 or better
Teams off scoring 48-plus have covered at a clip of 67% the last four seasons while the Tigers are 10-4 against the number off scoring 26-plus points.
NRL SEASON PREVIEW TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
Betting Strategy
BACK: Penrith Panthers Premiership at $3.00+
This is best back for Premiership. Penrith are in rarefied air here as they look to become the first team since the famous St George team that won 11 straight to win four premierships on the trot. There is certainly no reason they cannot. While they have lost Stephen Crichton and some solid backups, this Panthers team that has lost just 16 games across the last four years and brings into the season the most formidable roster. They sit at least a tier above any other team and no team can lift for September football like the Panthers. They are almost certain to finish in the Top 4 with their 2-5 record in close games suggesting they will improve on their regular season win total, setting them up for the best possible September run.
BACK: Sydney Roosters Premiership at $7.00+
This is best value for the Premiership. The only team with a roster anywhere near as stocked with talent to the Panthers is Trent Robinson's Sydney Roosters. There remain some questions on the backline and the team's ability to score points but there is no more formidable or deeper pack in the premiership this year than that of the Tricolours. The Roosters recruited magnificently, bringing in Dom Young and Spencer Leniu, and they are as well coached as any in the premiership. The Chooks are all in for 2024.
LAY: Brisbane Premiership at $7.00 or shorter
Best lay for the NRL Premiership. The list of losing Grand Finalists to return and win a premiership has been exceptionally short in the NRL Era: Melbourne have achieved the feat three times, most recently in 2017, and Penrith, when they won the first of their titles. Most suffer from a shocking hangover. Parramatta missed the finals after losing the 2022 Grand Final. Brisbane severely overachieved last last year, they have lost key figures Herbie Farnworth, Tom Flegler and Kurt Capewell and are unlikely to have the dream injury run they enjoyed last year.
BACK: Melbourne Storm Top 4 at $2.20+
Best back top 4 market. Melbourne has really been undervalued this season. While they are a club with no depth, they have an outstanding spine (arguably best in the premiership) and a very good starting 13. They made the Top 4 last year, a place they have finished in 11 of the last 13 years. Melbourne are not the dominant force they were only a few years back but they remain an elite team.
BACK: Cronulla Sharks Top 4 at $3.00+
Best value top 4 market. Cronulla's draw is the best in the NRL and is so good that the difference between the number of total wins from last year they face and the second team is the same as that between the second easiest and toughest draws. It is a historically easy draw and the Sharks with their roster and starting base will be right in the mix for a Top 4 berth.
LAY: Brisbane Broncos Top 4 at $2.80 or shorter
Best lay top 4 market. Brisbane are a team to be against this year. They overshot their real win tally by nearly two full victories and they went 4-2 in close games so last season's finishing spot was overinflated. With so many losses and a likely regression in injury luck, it would not shock to see the Broncos fall out of the Top 4.
BACK: Cronulla Sharks Top 8 at $1.50+
Top 8 best back. Cronulla are the most undervalued team in the premiership this year and are far more likely to finish inside the Top 4 than they are to miss finals. The Sharks have a stable team with no changes to their best 13 but more importantly they have been blessed with the kindest of draws, where they are the only team in the competition to play teams from last year's Top 8 nine times. Cronulla are not missing the finals this year with even a below-average injury toll.
BACK: Redcliffe Dolphins Top 8 at $2.25+
Top 8 best value. Wayne Bennett has done a magnificent job building the Dolphins into a force that will be contending for a finals berth in just their second season. They have recruited magnificently, bringing in Tom Flegler to an already tough back and Herbie Farnworth and Jake Averillo to massively upgrade the club at the centre position. They can build momentum with a kind early season draw. Huge overs.
LAY: Newcastle Knights Top 8 at $2.50 or shorter
Best lay top 8. Newcastle managed to get hot over the backend of last season to make the finals but they are not a team that should return to the finals. They have lost top tryscorer Dominic Young. Their halves situation is a mess. They had a great run with injuries last year. This just seems like a run built on a very fragile and unsustainable base.
NATIONAL RUGBY LEAGUE – NRL TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
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