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Read our NRL expert tips and analysis for every game of the 2024 premiership season with Betfair’s NRL analyst. Includes game summaries, predictions, tips and best Back and Lay bets for every round. NRL tips for the upcoming round are online now!
PARRAMATTA EELS VS SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS
Betting Strategy
BACK SOUTH SYDNEY -1.5 @ $1.60 or better
Souths ridiculously started this match as an underdog despite playing some outstanding football over the last month and totally dominating the Eels in recent times. The Bunnies have won four straight and conceded 12 or fewer in each of their last three. They have also won and covered seven of the last eight against the Eels. This game looks to be going one way and one way only.
CRONULLA VS GOLD COAST
Betting Strategy
BACK GOLD COAST +7.5 @ $1.75 or better
The Titans are an excellent bet in this one despite the Sharks winning nine straight against them. Gold Coast get star AJ Brimson back and they have covered six straight getting 6.5 or more. The Titans have also covered five of their last seven against Top 4 opposition. Gold Coast can both cover and win this one.
LAY CRONULLA @ $1.70 or shorter
BRISBANE VS PENRITH
Betting Strategy
BACK UNDER 44.5 TOTAL POINTS @ $1.75 or better
Both teams are in a huge under spot and this is the best total of the weekend no risk. The under is 14-8 when the Broncos are an underdog at Suncorp and 16-8 when they are off conceding at least 32 points. The under is 17-7 when the Panthers are interstate favourites and is 10-4 when they are off scoring 12 or fewer. With these two having a history of under games, it looks a very good bet.
CANTERBURY VS NEW ZEALAND
Betting Strategy
BACK CANTERBURY -5.5 @ $1.75 or better
The Bulldogs have ascended to fifth on the ladder and have done so on the back of the second best defence in the NRL. That should prove too much for an inconsistent Warriors team. Canterbury get some troops back including Connor Tracey and Kurt Mann. The Bulldogs have covered seven of nine at Accor and five of six day games. The Warriors cover at just 41% in Australia and have covered just six of 19 off a double digit win.
WESTS TIGERS VS MELBOURNE STORM
Betting Strategy
BACK WESTS TIGERS +12.5 at $1.70 or better
The Tigers are being grossly underrated in this one. While Melbourne are a wildly better team, the Tigers have covered three straight at Leichhardt and six of seven at the ground as an underdog. They have also covered seven of 11 against Top 4 teams. Melbourne have covered just six of 19 night games and have just two blowout wins this year. The Tigers should be able to keep this close.
NORTH QUEENSLAND VS MANLY
Betting Strategy
BACK NORTH QUEENSLAND @ $1.65 or better
Manly get Tom Trbojevic back but astonishingly he has been named in the centres, something only Anthony Seibold could come up with. This looks a nice spot for the Cowboys, who get all their Origin stars back and come off a gritty win against Penrith. The Cowboys have covered 9 of 13 at home off a double digit win an have covered 11 of 14 off conceding 10 or fewer. Manly have covered just 11 of 26 interstate.
SYDNEY ROOSTERS VS ST GEORGE
Betting Strategy
BACK ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA +12.5 at $1.80 or better
The Sydney Roosters have the better team and they smoked the Dragons on Anzac Day in a 60-18 demolition job. It is tough to be against the plucky Dragons though. They are 39-22 against the spread in NSW while they have covered nine of 15 getting 12.5 or more. The Roosters have covered just six of 19 when favoured by more than two converted tries.
CANBERRA VS NEWCASTLE
Betting Strategy
BACK NEWCASTLE at $1.50 or better
Newcastle have been off the map once teams were announced on Tuesday with Kalyn Ponga a surprise inclusion. Dylan Lucas and Leo Thompson are also back in. Canberra have not named Jamal Fogarty to return. This is a great spot for the Knights, who have won six of the last nine against the Raiders, covering seven. Newcastle are 12-6 against the spread off scoring 18-plus. Canberra have covered just five of 16 at home and 12 of 38 against teams outside the Top 8.
NRL SEASON PREVIEW TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
Betting Strategy
BACK: Penrith Panthers Premiership at $3.00+
This is best back for Premiership. Penrith are in rarefied air here as they look to become the first team since the famous St George team that won 11 straight to win four premierships on the trot. There is certainly no reason they cannot. While they have lost Stephen Crichton and some solid backups, this Panthers team that has lost just 16 games across the last four years and brings into the season the most formidable roster. They sit at least a tier above any other team and no team can lift for September football like the Panthers. They are almost certain to finish in the Top 4 with their 2-5 record in close games suggesting they will improve on their regular season win total, setting them up for the best possible September run.
BACK: Sydney Roosters Premiership at $7.00+
This is best value for the Premiership. The only team with a roster anywhere near as stocked with talent to the Panthers is Trent Robinson's Sydney Roosters. There remain some questions on the backline and the team's ability to score points but there is no more formidable or deeper pack in the premiership this year than that of the Tricolours. The Roosters recruited magnificently, bringing in Dom Young and Spencer Leniu, and they are as well coached as any in the premiership. The Chooks are all in for 2024.
LAY: Brisbane Premiership at $7.00 or shorter
Best lay for the NRL Premiership. The list of losing Grand Finalists to return and win a premiership has been exceptionally short in the NRL Era: Melbourne have achieved the feat three times, most recently in 2017, and Penrith, when they won the first of their titles. Most suffer from a shocking hangover. Parramatta missed the finals after losing the 2022 Grand Final. Brisbane severely overachieved last last year, they have lost key figures Herbie Farnworth, Tom Flegler and Kurt Capewell and are unlikely to have the dream injury run they enjoyed last year.
BACK: Melbourne Storm Top 4 at $2.20+
Best back top 4 market. Melbourne has really been undervalued this season. While they are a club with no depth, they have an outstanding spine (arguably best in the premiership) and a very good starting 13. They made the Top 4 last year, a place they have finished in 11 of the last 13 years. Melbourne are not the dominant force they were only a few years back but they remain an elite team.
BACK: Cronulla Sharks Top 4 at $3.00+
Best value top 4 market. Cronulla's draw is the best in the NRL and is so good that the difference between the number of total wins from last year they face and the second team is the same as that between the second easiest and toughest draws. It is a historically easy draw and the Sharks with their roster and starting base will be right in the mix for a Top 4 berth.
LAY: Brisbane Broncos Top 4 at $2.80 or shorter
Best lay top 4 market. Brisbane are a team to be against this year. They overshot their real win tally by nearly two full victories and they went 4-2 in close games so last season's finishing spot was overinflated. With so many losses and a likely regression in injury luck, it would not shock to see the Broncos fall out of the Top 4.
BACK: Cronulla Sharks Top 8 at $1.50+
Top 8 best back. Cronulla are the most undervalued team in the premiership this year and are far more likely to finish inside the Top 4 than they are to miss finals. The Sharks have a stable team with no changes to their best 13 but more importantly they have been blessed with the kindest of draws, where they are the only team in the competition to play teams from last year's Top 8 nine times. Cronulla are not missing the finals this year with even a below-average injury toll.
BACK: Redcliffe Dolphins Top 8 at $2.25+
Top 8 best value. Wayne Bennett has done a magnificent job building the Dolphins into a force that will be contending for a finals berth in just their second season. They have recruited magnificently, bringing in Tom Flegler to an already tough back and Herbie Farnworth and Jake Averillo to massively upgrade the club at the centre position. They can build momentum with a kind early season draw. Huge overs.
LAY: Newcastle Knights Top 8 at $2.50 or shorter
Best lay top 8. Newcastle managed to get hot over the backend of last season to make the finals but they are not a team that should return to the finals. They have lost top tryscorer Dominic Young. Their halves situation is a mess. They had a great run with injuries last year. This just seems like a run built on a very fragile and unsustainable base.
NATIONAL RUGBY LEAGUE – NRL TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
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