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Read our NRL expert tips and analysis for every game of the 2024 premiership season with Betfair’s NRL analyst. Includes game summaries, predictions, tips and best Back and Lay bets for every round. NRL tips for the upcoming round are online now!
PARRAMATTA EELS VS CRONULLA SHARKS
Betting Strategy
BACK: Cronulla +2.5 at $1.75+
Parramatta have been off the map post-teams being named with Clint Gutherson and Mitch Moses both named to return. It seems to be a wild overreaction though. The Sharks have named a strong enough team with Nicho Hynes and Cam McInnes missing and they have won eight of 11 against the Eels. Cronulla have covered 21 of 35 off a loss while teams off a loss of 40-plus cover at 60% dating back to 2008. Trent Barrett is 12-47 in his last four seasons as a head coach – that is enough to be against Parramatta.
NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS VS CANTERBURY BULLDOGS
Betting Strategy
BACK: Canterbury +4.5 at $1.70+
Canterbury have come out a little stiff with Matt Burton not eligible to play even though he is unlikely to play for the Blues after being named 18th man. Canterbury still look over the odds. Teams off a win of 20 or more in Rounds 13-18 cover at 60%. Canterbury have covered their last four getting a start of more than a try while they have covered four of five against Top 8 teams.
LAY: Newcastle at $1.70 or less
The Knights are 6-11 against the spread laying more than a try.
PENRITH PANTHERS VS ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS
Betting Strategy
BACK: Penrith -7.5 at $1.70 or less
Penrith have covered 10 of 12 at Penrith Stadium when favoured by less than double digits. Both the Panthers and Dragons are missing plenty of talent this week with Penrith having five players on Origin duty while the Dragons are without three. Penrith are far better equipped to deal with it though with the likes of Brad Schneider, Daine Laurie and Tyrone Peachey filling in. The Dragons have had to name Jesse Marschke in place of Ben Hunt while Shane Flanagan has had to name nearly an entirely new three-quarter line after dropping Mikaele Ravalawa.
THE DOLPHINS VS CANBERRA RAIDERS
Betting Strategy
BACK: Canberra +3.5 at $1.80+
There are few better bounce back teams than Canberra. The Raiders have covered their last eight off conceding 40-plus. They have only lost Hudson Young to Origin duty too. The Dolphins have lost Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Felise Kaufusi. They have a great record at Redcliffe but beware the Raiders ambush here off a shocking defensive showing.
SYDNEY ROOSTERS VS NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS
Betting Strategy
BACK: Sydney Roosters -17.5 at $1.70+
Surprisingly, the Roosters have come out the big winners in this re: Origin despite missing four players. James Tedesco is available and will be desperate for a huge performance. Meanwhile the struggling Cowboys have six absent including playmaker Tom Dearden, hooker Reece Robson and Reuben Cotter. The Cowboys have covered just nine of 27 interstate and just two of seven off scoring 40-plus. The Roosters have covered five of seven at Allianz.
NRL SEASON PREVIEW TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
Betting Strategy
BACK: Penrith Panthers Premiership at $3.00+
This is best back for Premiership. Penrith are in rarefied air here as they look to become the first team since the famous St George team that won 11 straight to win four premierships on the trot. There is certainly no reason they cannot. While they have lost Stephen Crichton and some solid backups, this Panthers team that has lost just 16 games across the last four years and brings into the season the most formidable roster. They sit at least a tier above any other team and no team can lift for September football like the Panthers. They are almost certain to finish in the Top 4 with their 2-5 record in close games suggesting they will improve on their regular season win total, setting them up for the best possible September run.
BACK: Sydney Roosters Premiership at $7.00+
This is best value for the Premiership. The only team with a roster anywhere near as stocked with talent to the Panthers is Trent Robinson's Sydney Roosters. There remain some questions on the backline and the team's ability to score points but there is no more formidable or deeper pack in the premiership this year than that of the Tricolours. The Roosters recruited magnificently, bringing in Dom Young and Spencer Leniu, and they are as well coached as any in the premiership. The Chooks are all in for 2024.
LAY: Brisbane Premiership at $7.00 or shorter
Best lay for the NRL Premiership. The list of losing Grand Finalists to return and win a premiership has been exceptionally short in the NRL Era: Melbourne have achieved the feat three times, most recently in 2017, and Penrith, when they won the first of their titles. Most suffer from a shocking hangover. Parramatta missed the finals after losing the 2022 Grand Final. Brisbane severely overachieved last last year, they have lost key figures Herbie Farnworth, Tom Flegler and Kurt Capewell and are unlikely to have the dream injury run they enjoyed last year.
BACK: Melbourne Storm Top 4 at $2.20+
Best back top 4 market. Melbourne has really been undervalued this season. While they are a club with no depth, they have an outstanding spine (arguably best in the premiership) and a very good starting 13. They made the Top 4 last year, a place they have finished in 11 of the last 13 years. Melbourne are not the dominant force they were only a few years back but they remain an elite team.
BACK: Cronulla Sharks Top 4 at $3.00+
Best value top 4 market. Cronulla's draw is the best in the NRL and is so good that the difference between the number of total wins from last year they face and the second team is the same as that between the second easiest and toughest draws. It is a historically easy draw and the Sharks with their roster and starting base will be right in the mix for a Top 4 berth.
LAY: Brisbane Broncos Top 4 at $2.80 or shorter
Best lay top 4 market. Brisbane are a team to be against this year. They overshot their real win tally by nearly two full victories and they went 4-2 in close games so last season's finishing spot was overinflated. With so many losses and a likely regression in injury luck, it would not shock to see the Broncos fall out of the Top 4.
BACK: Cronulla Sharks Top 8 at $1.50+
Top 8 best back. Cronulla are the most undervalued team in the premiership this year and are far more likely to finish inside the Top 4 than they are to miss finals. The Sharks have a stable team with no changes to their best 13 but more importantly they have been blessed with the kindest of draws, where they are the only team in the competition to play teams from last year's Top 8 nine times. Cronulla are not missing the finals this year with even a below-average injury toll.
BACK: Redcliffe Dolphins Top 8 at $2.25+
Top 8 best value. Wayne Bennett has done a magnificent job building the Dolphins into a force that will be contending for a finals berth in just their second season. They have recruited magnificently, bringing in Tom Flegler to an already tough back and Herbie Farnworth and Jake Averillo to massively upgrade the club at the centre position. They can build momentum with a kind early season draw. Huge overs.
LAY: Newcastle Knights Top 8 at $2.50 or shorter
Best lay top 8. Newcastle managed to get hot over the backend of last season to make the finals but they are not a team that should return to the finals. They have lost top tryscorer Dominic Young. Their halves situation is a mess. They had a great run with injuries last year. This just seems like a run built on a very fragile and unsustainable base.
NATIONAL RUGBY LEAGUE – NRL TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
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