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Read our NRL expert tips and analysis for every game of the 2024 premiership season with Betfair’s NRL analyst. Includes game summaries, predictions, tips and best Back and Lay bets for every round. NRL tips for the upcoming round are online now!
CANBERRA V NEW ZEALAND
Betting Strategy
BACK: CANBERRA -1.5 @ $1.80 or better
The cavalry has arrived for Canberra and just in time as they make an unlikely finals push with Jamal Fogarty and Zac Hosking back from long-term injuries while Hudson Young also returns. It is the opposite news for the Warriors who have lost Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and Marcelo Montoya with Tohu Harris also ruled out for the year. Canberra have been well supported and with the influx of troops look a likely bet.
SOUTH SYDNEY V WESTS TIGERS
Betting Strategy
BACK: WESTS TIGERS +12.5 @ $1.60 or better
The Tigers with the big start are the best of the week. Teams off humiliations like the Tigers suffered last week tend to bounce back the following week. Teams off conceding 56 or more points over the last four years are 14-3 against the spread while those off a loss of 40 or more cover at 60% dating back to 2008. The Tigers have covered four of five off conceding 56. With Souths third last and without Latrell Mitchell, the Tigers are a huge runner in this one.
NEWCASTLE V BRISBANE
Betting Strategy
BACK: NEWCASTLE +4.5 @ $1.70 or better
Both teams have significant Origin contingents looking to back up so keep an eye out for those. The Newcastle trio will all likely play while Kevin Walters has no choice but to play his foursome if they are anywhere near fit in order to save their season. This is a handy spot for the Knights. They have won two of the last three meetings against the Broncos in Newcastle while they are a good bounceback team with seven covers from their last eight off a loss. The Broncos have failed to cover their last five off a defeat.
MELBOURNE V SYDNEY ROOSTERS
Betting Strategy
BACK: MELBOURNE +2.5 @ $1.75 or better
This outstanding top-of-the-table clash sees Melbourne in the rare position of being a home underdog. The Storm have covered two of three at AAMI as a home dog but they notably bounce back off a bad defensive performance, covering 10 of 14 off conceding 28-plus. The Roosters have a big contingent backing up from Wednesday while they are 22-31 against the spread v Top 8 opposition. The Storm have won nine of the last 10 meetings.
PENRITH V DOLPHINS
Betting Strategy
BACK: DOLPHINS +12.5 at $1.65 or better
Penrith get Nathan Cleary back for this clash with the Dolphins but will rest Dylan Edwards and Isaah Yeo with Luai, Martin and To'o also a good chance of being rested for this one. There is no upside to betting the Panthers early. They have performed poorly over this Origin period as their depth is tested. The Dolphins are 11-6 against the spread off conceding 26-plus and have covered 11 of 17 getting a start of at least eight points.
LAY: PENRITH @ $1.45 or shorter
MANLY V GOLD COAST
Betting Strategy
BACK: GOLD COAST +7.5 @ $1.70 or better
Gold Coast are an excellent bet when they travel to Brookvale to meet Manly. The Titans play Manly well. They have covered the last three against the Sea Eagles while they have won four of their last five at Brookvale Oval. The Titans have covered their last seven getting more than a converted try while they have covered four of six off conceding 16 or fewer. Gold Coast can win this one.
NORTH QUEENSLAND V CANTERBURY
Betting Strategy
BACK: CANTERBURY +1.5 at $1.75 or better
North Queensland have been wildly inconsistent and this strikes as a game they are going to get incredibly frustrated with. The Cowboys have five players who will need to backup while the Bulldogs have just Stephen Crichton. The Bulldogs have the second best defence in the NRL and they have covered four of their last six interstate. The Cowboys have covered just three of 10 off a loss while they have covered just one of their last nine home games.
NRL SEASON PREVIEW TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
Betting Strategy
BACK: Penrith Panthers Premiership at $3.00+
This is best back for Premiership. Penrith are in rarefied air here as they look to become the first team since the famous St George team that won 11 straight to win four premierships on the trot. There is certainly no reason they cannot. While they have lost Stephen Crichton and some solid backups, this Panthers team that has lost just 16 games across the last four years and brings into the season the most formidable roster. They sit at least a tier above any other team and no team can lift for September football like the Panthers. They are almost certain to finish in the Top 4 with their 2-5 record in close games suggesting they will improve on their regular season win total, setting them up for the best possible September run.
BACK: Sydney Roosters Premiership at $7.00+
This is best value for the Premiership. The only team with a roster anywhere near as stocked with talent to the Panthers is Trent Robinson's Sydney Roosters. There remain some questions on the backline and the team's ability to score points but there is no more formidable or deeper pack in the premiership this year than that of the Tricolours. The Roosters recruited magnificently, bringing in Dom Young and Spencer Leniu, and they are as well coached as any in the premiership. The Chooks are all in for 2024.
LAY: Brisbane Premiership at $7.00 or shorter
Best lay for the NRL Premiership. The list of losing Grand Finalists to return and win a premiership has been exceptionally short in the NRL Era: Melbourne have achieved the feat three times, most recently in 2017, and Penrith, when they won the first of their titles. Most suffer from a shocking hangover. Parramatta missed the finals after losing the 2022 Grand Final. Brisbane severely overachieved last last year, they have lost key figures Herbie Farnworth, Tom Flegler and Kurt Capewell and are unlikely to have the dream injury run they enjoyed last year.
BACK: Melbourne Storm Top 4 at $2.20+
Best back top 4 market. Melbourne has really been undervalued this season. While they are a club with no depth, they have an outstanding spine (arguably best in the premiership) and a very good starting 13. They made the Top 4 last year, a place they have finished in 11 of the last 13 years. Melbourne are not the dominant force they were only a few years back but they remain an elite team.
BACK: Cronulla Sharks Top 4 at $3.00+
Best value top 4 market. Cronulla's draw is the best in the NRL and is so good that the difference between the number of total wins from last year they face and the second team is the same as that between the second easiest and toughest draws. It is a historically easy draw and the Sharks with their roster and starting base will be right in the mix for a Top 4 berth.
LAY: Brisbane Broncos Top 4 at $2.80 or shorter
Best lay top 4 market. Brisbane are a team to be against this year. They overshot their real win tally by nearly two full victories and they went 4-2 in close games so last season's finishing spot was overinflated. With so many losses and a likely regression in injury luck, it would not shock to see the Broncos fall out of the Top 4.
BACK: Cronulla Sharks Top 8 at $1.50+
Top 8 best back. Cronulla are the most undervalued team in the premiership this year and are far more likely to finish inside the Top 4 than they are to miss finals. The Sharks have a stable team with no changes to their best 13 but more importantly they have been blessed with the kindest of draws, where they are the only team in the competition to play teams from last year's Top 8 nine times. Cronulla are not missing the finals this year with even a below-average injury toll.
BACK: Redcliffe Dolphins Top 8 at $2.25+
Top 8 best value. Wayne Bennett has done a magnificent job building the Dolphins into a force that will be contending for a finals berth in just their second season. They have recruited magnificently, bringing in Tom Flegler to an already tough back and Herbie Farnworth and Jake Averillo to massively upgrade the club at the centre position. They can build momentum with a kind early season draw. Huge overs.
LAY: Newcastle Knights Top 8 at $2.50 or shorter
Best lay top 8. Newcastle managed to get hot over the backend of last season to make the finals but they are not a team that should return to the finals. They have lost top tryscorer Dominic Young. Their halves situation is a mess. They had a great run with injuries last year. This just seems like a run built on a very fragile and unsustainable base.
NATIONAL RUGBY LEAGUE – NRL TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
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