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Read our NRL expert tips and analysis for every game of the 2024 premiership season with Betfair’s NRL analyst. Includes game summaries, predictions, tips and best Back and Lay bets for every round. NRL tips for the upcoming round are online now!
NEW ZEALAND VS WESTS TIGERS
Betting Strategy
BACK: (WESTS TIGERS +12.5) @ $1.70 or better
The Tigers are not without a chance of shocking the injury-ravaged Warriors with the huge line way too big. The Warriors are a big take on team with Johnson, Harris and Nicoll-Klokstad leading a long list of outs. New Zealand have failed to cover any of their five games when favoured by double digits over the last four seasons while they are 3-8 against the spread at Mt Smart. The Tigers are 11-6 against the spread when a double digit underdog off conceding 30-plus.
PARRAMATTA VS MELBOURNE STORM
Betting Strategy
BACK (MELBOURNE -15.5) @ $1.65 or better
Good luck in this one, Parramatta. Cameron Munster is a chance of returning for the Storm while Mitchell Moses is out for the Eels. This is only going one way. Melbourne have won the last three against Parramatta and posted scored of 46 and 48 in the last two. They are 27-15 against the spread when playing teams outside the Top 8 and have covered five of seven interstate. The Eels are 2-15 against the spread at night and have failed to cover their last three as an underdog at CommBank. The Storm put a cricket score on here.
BRISBANE VS CANTERBURY
Betting Strategy
BACK (BRISBANE -8.5) @ $1.80 or better
Canterbury have certainly been digging deep this year and that has shown in an 11-4 cover record in their last 15 as well as the second best defence in the NRL. This is a huge spot for the Broncos though and there is a lean to them. They have won and covered the last five against the Bulldogs. They are 18-9 against the spread off scoring 30-plus and have covered 16 of 27 when favoured by more than a converted try. If Brisbane's attack clicks, they are going to be very hard to hold out.
NORTH QUEENSLAND VS CRONULLA
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) CRONULLA @ $1.60 or better
The Sharks look almost good-things this week even with Will Kennedy suspended and Nicho Hynes sidelined. Teams off scoring 48 or more cover at 71% in the post-Origin period. Underdogs off scoring 56-plus are 7-2 against the spread since 2008. The Sharks have won 15 of 18 against the Cowboys and have covered seven of eight interstate. The Cowboys have covered just one of 10 at home.
SYDNEY ROOSTERS VS MANLY
Betting Strategy
BACK (SYDNEY ROOSTERS -6.5) @ $1.55 or better
The Roosters are the clear best of the week when they host Manly on Saturday evening. This is just a huge spot for them. Top 4 teams off a loss cover at 85% in Rounds 21-27 while teams off scoring 10 or fewer cover at 64% during the same period. The Chooks have covered 7 of 10 at Allianz and have won 7 of 11 against the Sea Eagles. Manly have covered just three of nine away from Brookvale. Chips in the Roosters.
ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA VS PENRITH
Betting Strategy
BACK (ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA +11.5) @ $1.70 or better
The Dragons have been dreadfully underrated this year and this number against the Panthers is ridiculously big. St George Illawarra have covered five straight against the Panthers and did beat them eight weeks back. The Red V are 14-4 against the spread in Wollongong including a 6-1 cover record when they are off a win at the ground. The Panthers cover at less than 50% when they are favoured by 12 or more so a big watch on the line.
DOLPHINS VS GOLD COAST
Betting Strategy
BACK (GOLD COAST +5.5) at $1.70 or better
The Titans were very poor against the Sea Eagles at Brookvale last Sunday but they had generally been a reliable proposition and against a far looser defensive outfit they strike as a very strong bet. The Titans have covered four of their last five at Suncorp while the Dolphins are 6-9 against the number at the ground throughout their existence. The Dolphins have also covered just one of their last six as a favourite. Gold Coast have covered nine of 10 getting a try or more and can improve that recent run.
CANBERRA VS SOUTH SYDNEY
Betting Strategy
BACK (SOUTH SYDNEY +3.5) at $1.70 or better
It is questionable whether the Raiders should be favoured here. They are at home against a bottom four team but they are in a dreadful spot. Canberra have covered just five of 18 at home and 14 of 47 when favoured. Souths hae covered 22 of 35 interstate while they are 8-3 against the spread off scoring 42 or more. Souths are a nice bet this week.
LAY CANBERRA at $1.90 or shorter
NRL SEASON PREVIEW TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
Betting Strategy
BACK: Penrith Panthers Premiership at $3.00+
This is best back for Premiership. Penrith are in rarefied air here as they look to become the first team since the famous St George team that won 11 straight to win four premierships on the trot. There is certainly no reason they cannot. While they have lost Stephen Crichton and some solid backups, this Panthers team that has lost just 16 games across the last four years and brings into the season the most formidable roster. They sit at least a tier above any other team and no team can lift for September football like the Panthers. They are almost certain to finish in the Top 4 with their 2-5 record in close games suggesting they will improve on their regular season win total, setting them up for the best possible September run.
BACK: Sydney Roosters Premiership at $7.00+
This is best value for the Premiership. The only team with a roster anywhere near as stocked with talent to the Panthers is Trent Robinson's Sydney Roosters. There remain some questions on the backline and the team's ability to score points but there is no more formidable or deeper pack in the premiership this year than that of the Tricolours. The Roosters recruited magnificently, bringing in Dom Young and Spencer Leniu, and they are as well coached as any in the premiership. The Chooks are all in for 2024.
LAY: Brisbane Premiership at $7.00 or shorter
Best lay for the NRL Premiership. The list of losing Grand Finalists to return and win a premiership has been exceptionally short in the NRL Era: Melbourne have achieved the feat three times, most recently in 2017, and Penrith, when they won the first of their titles. Most suffer from a shocking hangover. Parramatta missed the finals after losing the 2022 Grand Final. Brisbane severely overachieved last last year, they have lost key figures Herbie Farnworth, Tom Flegler and Kurt Capewell and are unlikely to have the dream injury run they enjoyed last year.
BACK: Melbourne Storm Top 4 at $2.20+
Best back top 4 market. Melbourne has really been undervalued this season. While they are a club with no depth, they have an outstanding spine (arguably best in the premiership) and a very good starting 13. They made the Top 4 last year, a place they have finished in 11 of the last 13 years. Melbourne are not the dominant force they were only a few years back but they remain an elite team.
BACK: Cronulla Sharks Top 4 at $3.00+
Best value top 4 market. Cronulla's draw is the best in the NRL and is so good that the difference between the number of total wins from last year they face and the second team is the same as that between the second easiest and toughest draws. It is a historically easy draw and the Sharks with their roster and starting base will be right in the mix for a Top 4 berth.
LAY: Brisbane Broncos Top 4 at $2.80 or shorter
Best lay top 4 market. Brisbane are a team to be against this year. They overshot their real win tally by nearly two full victories and they went 4-2 in close games so last season's finishing spot was overinflated. With so many losses and a likely regression in injury luck, it would not shock to see the Broncos fall out of the Top 4.
BACK: Cronulla Sharks Top 8 at $1.50+
Top 8 best back. Cronulla are the most undervalued team in the premiership this year and are far more likely to finish inside the Top 4 than they are to miss finals. The Sharks have a stable team with no changes to their best 13 but more importantly they have been blessed with the kindest of draws, where they are the only team in the competition to play teams from last year's Top 8 nine times. Cronulla are not missing the finals this year with even a below-average injury toll.
BACK: Redcliffe Dolphins Top 8 at $2.25+
Top 8 best value. Wayne Bennett has done a magnificent job building the Dolphins into a force that will be contending for a finals berth in just their second season. They have recruited magnificently, bringing in Tom Flegler to an already tough back and Herbie Farnworth and Jake Averillo to massively upgrade the club at the centre position. They can build momentum with a kind early season draw. Huge overs.
LAY: Newcastle Knights Top 8 at $2.50 or shorter
Best lay top 8. Newcastle managed to get hot over the backend of last season to make the finals but they are not a team that should return to the finals. They have lost top tryscorer Dominic Young. Their halves situation is a mess. They had a great run with injuries last year. This just seems like a run built on a very fragile and unsustainable base.
NATIONAL RUGBY LEAGUE – NRL TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
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