3 minute read

With the Euro final immediately followed by the Paris Olympics, the 24/25 EPL season seems to have come around very quickly.

It will certainly seem that way for the elite players, most of whom are coming into this season, which will be back ended by the inaugural World Club Championship, with just a couple of weeks' break.

Man City is $2.20* to win the title for a fifth straight season, a considerably longer price than they were at this stage last year. The resurgence of Arsenal is the reason with many, including yours truly, of the opinion that they can wrest the title from Pep's side and break a 21-year drought.

The Gunners are second favourite at $2.87*, with Liverpool are the only other side seriously in the market at $8.00*. The Reds haven't strengthened their squad to any degree at the time of writing, and a new coach may take time to settle in and win over fans. It certainly looks a two-horse race.

Man City v Chelsea is the glamour match of the opening round.

Liverpool faces a newly promoted side for the fifth time in six seasons and won't find their trip to Suffolk easy against Ipswich.

A new-look West Ham take on Villa in a very appealing match out of London Stadium on Sunday morning.

Betting on games in the first six weeks is precarious so it's best to take caution and observe. The suggested wagers for this round, and the season overall, are at the foot of the column.

MANCHESTER UTD V FULHAM

History: Fulham defeated Man U at Old Trafford last season, their first win there since 2003 and breaking a run of 18 fixtures in all competitions without a win. 

Overview: Man U looked pretty sharp in their 1-1 draw with Man City in the Community Shield, but subsequently lost on penalties. They have started the last couple of campaigns sluggishly and won't find Fulham easy – their last two season openers since promotion have been a draw at home against Liverpool and an away win at Everton.

Man U brings in Leny Yoro, de Ligt and a couple of others, but they are hardly the world class talent that the club used to attract. A better run with injuries might see them top six this year, but Champions League qualification still looks a long way off.

Don't be surprised if Van Nisterooy is manager by Christmas. 

Fulham looks a stable mid-table side under Marco Silva. The loss of Palhinha to Bayern is massive though – his defensive qualities in the centre of the park will be sorely missed. Expect them to be safe from relegation, but anything north of 12th will be a good season.

Prediction: Man U at $1.55* with bet365 makes little appeal. A draw at $4.20* is the value option.

IPSWICH v LIVERPOOL

History: The last clash between these sides in any competition was in December 2002 in the League Cup. Ipswich's last appearance in the Premier League was in the 2001/02 season during which Liverpool beat them twice at an aggregate of 11-0.

Overview: There's always high expectation and a real pump around newly promoted teams, but the gulf in quality often means it comes to nothing. Last season, it took until matchweek 7 for a newly promoted side to register a win in the league. Ipswich has a similar profile to Forest and Leeds in recent seasons – big guns from the 20th Century back after a long hiatus.

Liverpool might take time to find their feet under Slot. The squad is similar to last season and lacks a fresh look. There is still time for movements in the player market but as it stands they do not have the cattle to pressure to top two.

Prediction: Liverpool should have too much class, but there will be better $1.36* chances this season.

ARSENAL v WOLVES

History: Arsenal has achieved the double over Wolves in the last three seasons, conceding just twice in that time.

Overview: Arsenal commences this campaign with similar troops to the last. Being a young squad that's a good thing … they will be mentally tougher to take on the might of Man City head-to-head for the third straight season. The key addition is defender Calafiori from Bologna. If he stays fit, and given his history it is a big 'if', he and the eventual return of Timber will give the Gunners the best back four in the league. A #9 is all that is needed to complete the puzzle.

Wolves will miss Pedro Neto greatly. The club's highest profile player and greatest threat by far going forward in the 23/24 campaign is off to Chelsea. Between the sale of him and Kilman there is a 100 million war chest that must be spent wisely. Wolves are one of those sides that could easily slip into a relegation battle with a poor run of injuries.

Prediction: Arsenal looks a safe bet if you are prepared to take $1.22* at bet 365 - maybe add them to multis.

EVERTON v BRIGHTON

History: Both meetings in 23/24 ended 1-1. Brighton has enjoyed coming to Goodison recently, with two wins and a draw from the last three visits, scoring eight along the way.

Overview: Everton's last season at the oldest ground in English top-flight football will be an emotional one. Background noise concerning ownership and FFP don't help, but Dyche did a tremendous job last season to keep them up. The losses this season outweigh the gains, so anything but another tooth-and-nail struggle to stay up would be a surprise. Onana going, and to a lesser degree Godfrey and Dobbin, are hurtful.

Brighton begin life under new manager Fabian Hurzeler who inherits a club that has newfound high expectations, built under Potter and De Zerbi. As usual, they have been active in the transfer market and bring in a dozen or so new players, none of whom could be considered household names. That, however, is the Brighton way – the knack of attracting bargain basement players and turning them into stars.

The back end of last season wasn't pretty, so the new gaffer has the job ahead to get this team anywhere European qualification again.

Prediction: Draw at $3.30* with bet365.

NEWCASTLE v SOUTHAMPTON

History: Newcastle completed the double over Southampton two seasons ago by an aggregate of 7-2. The last time the Saints made the long trip from the south coast to Tyneside and won was in 2015.

Overview: Crunch time for the Magpies. The Saudi state won't cop another season of mediocrity like the last. Eddie Howe will know that Champions League qualification is the expectation. However, FFP shackles make a Man City or Chelsea-like expansion impossible, so Howe needs to keep his current squad intact and build with that. A shocking run with injuries and UCL commitments contributed to last season's performance, but he does have the quality on-hand to get amongst the chasing pack.

Southampton sprung straight back to the top-flight after just one season in the Championship. The appointment of Russell Martin to lead the relatively young squad was the key. The Saints played possession-based football and weren't afraid to take risks. It got them to 4th in the Championship then a win over Leeds at Wembley for promotion.

The trials and tribulations of Burnley, who came up with a similar philosophy and refused to adapt before plummeting straight back down, must be in the back of supporters' minds. If Martin keeps them up, it will be a job well done.

Prediction: Newcastle win at $1.33* with bet365.

NOTTINGHAM FOREST v BOURNEMOUTH

History: These sides were promoted together in 22/23. During the two seasons prior to that, both contested the Championship. In the eight games over those four seasons, Bournemouth has won five times with three drawn. 

Overview: Forest survived last season after a mid-season switch in management. Under Espirito Santo they won six from 21 after winning three from 17 under Steve Cooper – hardly earth-shattering improvement. A four-point deduction for FFP violations meant they finished on 32 points, and fortunate there were three sides as poor as the newly promoted to keep them floating above the drop zone.

Forest's home form in 23/24 was not nearly as strong as the previous campaign. If they are to remain in the top-flight a few more wins at the City Ground will be required.

Bournemouth was patchy last season. A poor start was expunged by picking up 19 points from a possible 21 in November/December. A New Year's slump followed, then a March revival. Solanke was a key player up front and his departure to Spurs is a big blow. They have acquired a couple of defenders but need to plug the gap up front. If a suitable replacement is found, a position similar to last season is a possibility.

Prediction: Draw at $3.50* with bet365.

WEST HAM v ASTON VILLA

History: A very good fixture for the Hammers, who have not lost at home to Villa in nine meetings going back to 2011. The corresponding fixture in 23/24 ended 1-1.

Overview: The 24/25 West Ham bears no resemblance to the 23/24 model. A new manager in Lopetegui and no less than seven high profile signings give them depth, a sturdier look at the back, and some creativity to add to the likes of Bowen, Paqueta and Kudus. Gelling this talent is the new gaffer's brief – if he gets it right quickly, West Ham can make a play at the top six, particularly with no Thursday night European commitments for the first time in four seasons.

Villa come into this campaign with high hopes. A return to the Champions League for the first time since 1982/83, after winning the title in 81/82, is the obvious focus. But as Newcastle found, it is tough to balance football at the highest level twice a week, particularly with squad that lacks the depth and quality of its main competitors. The extended format of this year's UCL is also a factor.

Onana is a strong addition to the midfield from Everton, but Diaby and Douglas Luiz are big losses. Just when a side needs to be strengthened for the challenges ahead, it can ill-afford to regress – we have FFP lunacy to thank for that.

Prediction: Draw at $3.50* with bet365.

BRENTFORD v CRYSTAL PALACE

History: In the three seasons that Brentford has been in the Premier League, they have failed to get the better of Palace. The first five encounters were drawn, and the Eagles won at home 3-1 in December in the latest meeting.

Overview: The least glamourous of the EPL's seven London clubs clash in what is often a tight, low-scoring fixture.

Brentford had a rocky 23/24 campaign, largely due to the drama surrounding Ivan Toney and the absence of Mbeumo for an extended period. Frank is a wily manager who extracts the best from what he has got. If Toney stays, and it appears he might at this stage, another decent campaign and a midfield finish looks on the cards.

Palace was one of the form sides of the league in the final quarter of last season, with new manager Oliver Glasner getting Eze, Olise and Mateta to turn on the sparks up front. With class in the form of Guehi (maybe heading to Newcastle) and Wharton away from the front line, this was a formidable squad. However, Olise is gone and his influence cannot be understated.

Remarkably, Palace has finished between 10th and 15th every season since gained promotion in 2013/14. Expecting more of the same.

Prediction: Draw at $3.40* with bet365.

CHELSEA v MANCHESTER CITY

History: Although Chelsea hasn't beaten City since the Champions League Final in May 2021, last season saw a couple of draws in the league, including a memorable 4-4 thriller at Stamford Bridge.

Overview: The Chelsea cash splash continued over the summer with Pedro Neto from Wolves the pick of the imports. Goodness knows how Todd Boehly manages to keep the FFP auditors at bay – sale of real estate assets is probably the answer. Regardless, the return on investment, massive investment, to date has been negligible. The sacking of Pochettino to bring in the inexperienced Guardiola disciple Enzo Maresca was puzzling to say the least. If Enzo can get this side dripping in quality to perform cohesively, they can test the top three, but it is a huge 'if'.

Pep will need all his powers of motivation to get City up for a fifth straight title. Once again, they were relentless post Xmas and gave Arsenal no chance of catching them through the sheer monotony of picking up three points game after game. If they are within sight of the lead come February next year they can win again – just two teams from last season's top half are in their draw for the final ten games.

Alvarez has gone and he must be replaced as he spent more time on the pitch last season that all but two outfield players. Expect some business before the close of the summer window.

Prediction: Man City has won 10 of the last 11 opening day fixtures and can do it again at $1.80* with bet365.

LEICESTER v TOTTENHAM

History: Plenty of goals and few draws is the theme of recent meetings. In fact, in the last seven seasons before Leicester's relegation in 22/23, the 14 clashes saw Spurs win nine, Leicester four, and one draw. Total goals = 63 at an average of 4.5 per game.

Overview: Leicester kept some key players and bounced straight back up in 23/24, taking the Championship by a solitary point despite losing 11 times during the campaign. Vardy was again the leading scorer, but one wonders how effective he will be at the elite level aged 36.

Steve Cooper takes the reins after Maresca, who took the Foxes to the title last season, was lured to Chelsea. Buonanotte is a good signing from Brighton, but there are few standout players and this might be a tough season.

Tottenham soared through the first ten weeks of season 23/24 and statutes of Ange were being planned. By May there was a nasty taste in the mouth and some not-too-subtle rumblings from the Aussie manager that the club lacked ambition. The signing of Solanke from Bournemouth for a huge fee is a gamble. He is not a consistent scorer at the top level and is certainly no Harry Kane.

If Maddison stays fit a top-six finish is likely, but the Champions League will need to wait until Levy opens the purse strings a bit more.

Prediction: Tottenham win at $1.60* with bet365.

SUGGESTED WAGERS

Season finishing position Forecast: 1st Arsenal, 2nd Man City – 1 unit at $5.00* with bet365.

West Ham v Aston Villa to draw – 2 units at $3.50* with bet365.

Tottenham to win and both teams to score – 2 units at $2.87* with bet365.

*Odds correct at 12.15pm AEST 14 August 2024.

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