3 minute read

Leeds are two points from Premier League safety, while Newcastle are two points clear of Manchester United in third heading into this Saturday lunchtime game. Check out our key stats and suggested bets.

Key stats

There have been over 2.5 goals scored in nine of Leeds’ last 10 Premier League games.

Leeds have lost five of their last six Premier League matches.

Leeds have conceded at least two goals in five of their last six Premier League matches.

Leeds have won just two of the last 11 meetings with Newcastle.

Leeds’ last 10 Premier League games have seen BTTS.

Newcastle have won seven of their last nine Premier League games.

Verdict

Leeds earned a valuable point in a goalless draw with Newcastle in the reverse fixture earlier this season. That point was enough to lift Leeds, then managed by Jesse Marsch, three points clear of the drop zone.

However, the Whites are arguably the team in the worst form in the Premier League right now and the price of 7/2 about a home win reflects their struggles. 

Sam Allardyce has taken over the reins and his claim that he was the equal of Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp deflected the attention off his team at The Etihad. And, behind closed doors, the 2-1 defeat would have been met with a smile from Big Sam.

The scoreline did not tell the story of the match against the champions. On another day Erling Haaland would have walked away with the match ball, but Leeds somehow managed to escape with an odd-goal defeat.

The manner of the defeat was concerning because Leeds were so deep that Patrick Bamford was in a different postcode for most of the match. 

Leeds have gone from being a high pressing team under Marsch to a side that retreats to their own penalty area under Allardyce. And it’s more than likely that Big Sam will adopt a similar defensive approach against a Newcastle side that have won three of their last four games.

Allardyce changed his goalkeeper last week in a bid to solve Leeds’ chronic defensive issues, but the Whites have bigger problems than the dropped Illan Meslier. They have not kept a clean sheet since the win over Southampton in February and have conceded 25 goals in their last eight games. 

Allardyce’s priority at Elland Road will be to block up the hosts leaky rearguard and expect Leeds to sit deep and allow little space in behind for the likes of Callum Wilson, Jacob Murphy and Alexander Isak.

This could put the emphasis on the likes of Bruno Guimaraes, Joe Willock and Joelinton coming from deeper to unlock the Leeds door.

The visitors have won eight of their 17 away games and won 4-1 at Everton, who adopted a similar approach to the one which Leeds may take on Saturday. The Magpies took 60% possession at Goodison and they are likely to record a similar amount of control in West Yorkshire.

Newcastle simply do not give goals away and only Man City have conceded fewer than their 16 on the road. Their reliable back four should be able to handle the sporadic attacks from Leeds and one goal may be enough to sink the home side.

Newcastle have not taken mercy on any of the strugglers this season, winning at Everton, Leicester, Nottingham Forest and Southampton and their odds-on price at Elland Road is no surprise.

Newcastle have a top-four spot to secure and they can make another big step to securing Champions League football with a win at Elland Road.

Suggested bets

Newcastle to beat Leeds 

Leeds vs Newcastle BTTS, no

Leeds 0-2 Newcastle