3 minute read

The top five sides in betting pre-tournament have all made it through to the final eight. Without question the two form teams are Spain and Germany and they meet early Saturday morning AEST in an epic clash.

The quarter finals draw is a little lop-sided on paper with England on the same side as The Netherlands ($8.00*) and the two outsiders, Switzerland and Turkey. The Three Lions maintain outright favouritism for that reason alone – certainly not on form.

Four of our five suggested wagers to date have either won or are still alive:

Fulltime result: Switzerland to win over Italy: 5 units at $3.40 - WON

Austria to win over Turkey and both sides to score: 4 units at $4.00 - LOST

France to win outright: 5 units at $5.00 - ALIVE

Portugal to win outright: 3 units at $8.00 - ALIVE

Jamal Musiala to score three or more goals during the tournament: 5 units at $5.00 - WON

Here's the assessment of the quarter final matches:

SPAIN v GERMANY: Saturday 6 July at 2.00am.

On form, this is a match befitting a final. Although I'm not a stats nut, the numbers support the statement that this pair are the form sides of Euro 2024:

• Germany heads the goals scored list on ten, Spain is second on nine.
• Between them they have five clean sheets from eight matches.
• Germany heads the passing accuracy stat at 92%, with Spain second on 91%.

Perhaps the caveat to all this is the fact that neither nation has been tested by another in-form side to date. Spain's group looked tough on paper, but Croatia and Italy were poor. The round of 16 encounter with minnows Georgia was a mismatch. Germany cruised through their group after comfortable wins over Scotland and Hungary. Switzerland in a dead-rubber then Denmark last weekend offered solid resistance, but the Spanish are a different proposition.

The last time these two met was in the group stage at the 2022 World Cup and it ended 1-1. Undoubtedly they are both travelling better now under new managership.

The Spaniards might be a bit sharper in attack than Germany and more capable of creating something out of nothing. The betting is close to level which affords us a bit of value.

Prediction: Fulltime result - Spain to win at $2.62* with bet365.

PORTUGAL v FRANCE: Saturday 6 July at 5.00am.

An attractive match on paper between ridiculously talented squads, yet neither has exactly lived up to pre-tournament hype.

Portugal had sewn up progression to the knockout stage before their shock loss to Georgia, so perhaps not too much should be read into that. However, they were then frustrated by the stoic Slovenian's midweek, needing penalties to get through. Against a magnificently structured defence, Portugal looked clueless. Ronaldo's rare miss from the spot looked costly at the time, and but for the heroics of keeper Diogo Costa, who saved a one-on-one in the dying stages then pulled off three beauties in the shootout, it might have been curtains.

France continues to stumble its way through, getting past Belgium in the last round via an 85th minute own goal. Remarkably, that makes it four games from four in this tournament without a goal in open play from their own boot – two own goals and a penalty is the paltry return. In fairness, their defence has been ironclad, with only a Robert Lewandowski spot kick finding the back of their net in the four games.

The key for Les Bleus is Mbappe. He has managed 15 shots on target but has only scored from the spot. A broken nose on the opening day might be having an adverse effect on him, but he needs to put it aside and stand up. If he clicks, the French are still the team to beat at this tournament.

The draw with Slovenia will have sapped a lot from the Portuguese who really limped to the line in that game. I doubt they will be able to back up and offer enough to defeat France, who surely have more to offer than we have seen to date.

Prediction: Fulltime result - France to win at $2.35* with bet365.

ENGLAND v SWITZERLAND: Sunday 7 July at 2.00am.

It took a special finish from Jude Bellingham with seconds left on the clock to save England from an inglorious exit at the hands of Slovakia in the first knockout stage. Just two shots on target, and a Rice shot that hit the upright, was all the Three Lions had to offer in another uninspiring display.

Man-for-man they are probably the most talented side in the show, but collectively they look disjointed and incapable of breaking down even modest opponents. Southgate persists with a run-on 11 that doesn't include Cole Palmer – he must start. Ivan Toney or Ollie Watkins should partner Kane up front, and Kyle Walker must be given more latitude to press forward. The manager seems more intent on not losing than winning.

Switzerland clinically disposed of Italy to progress and it was no fluke; they went within a couple of minutes of defeating Germany in the group stage. There are no superstars in this team but they do have flair and don't mind going on the front foot with an aggressive 3-4-3 set-up. This will no doubt be giving Southgate the cold sweats, so don't be surprised if we see more negativity from the tournament favourites.

This one is tearing me both ways. If England decides to go after the game they could easily bust the Swiss, but I doubt that will happen.

Although England has not lost to Switzerland in 13 meetings since a 2-1 loss in 1981 World Cup qualification, I'm certain this will be tight.

Prediction: Fulltime result - Draw at $3.00* with bet365.

NETHERLANDS v TURKEY: Sunday 7 July at 5.00am.

The fifth favourites meet the rank outsiders in the only game of the four that is unlikely to throw up the eventual winner.

The Dutch outclassed Romania in the round of 16, dominating possession and firing in four times more shots than their opponents. Save for a brave 0-0 with France, The Netherlands have scored at least twice in their other three games to date against decent opposition. Cody Gakpo is one of those players who seems more comfortable on the international stage than he does at club level – he was a hero at the last World Cup and opened the scoring midweek.

Turkey overcame Austria with a couple of set piece goals then withstood a second half fightback to advance. The Turks are familiar with deep progression in this tournament, reaching the semis in 2008 and the quarters in 2000.

A noteworthy form reference for these sides is indeed Austria, who defeated The Netherlands 3-2 in the final group game.

Set pieces may again prove vital in this one. I think it's tougher to call than the market suggests. 

Prediction: Fulltime result - Draw at $3.90* with bet365.

Suggested wagers for the quarter finals

Fulltime result - Spain to win: 6 units at $2.62* with bet365.

Fulltime result – France to win: 6 units at $2.35* with bet365.

England to advance on penalties: 1 unit at $9.00* with bet365.

Switzerland to advance on penalties: 1 unit at $9.00* with bet365.

*Odds correct at 9.25am Thursday 4 July 2024.

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